氣候變遷對水資源之影響為近十年來重要課題，台灣地區用水結構主要是以農業用水為主，因此本文擬針對氣候變遷對水稻田蒸發散量的影響及蒸發散量之敏感度分析進行討探。
首先研究高雄氣象站之氣象因子的趨勢和持續性，分析方法包括Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定、Cumulative Deviations均一性檢定、Kruskal-Wallis因子分類變異數分析、簡單線性迴歸以及一階自相關係數。以溫度、相對溼度、日照時數、風速、雨量和不降雨日數之48年資料來分析，結果顯示高雄地區的氣象因子中，溫度和相對溼度均較具有明顯的長期趨勢。
本文以Modified Penman蒸發散估算式來推估實際蒸發散量，並進一步對該估算式的氣象因子進行敏感度分析，發現太陽輻射、相對溼度和溫度對Modified Penman蒸發散估算式較敏感，唯日照時數並沒有顯著的長期趨勢，故氣候變遷對蒸發散量之影響以溫度和相對溼度之影響較大。
綜合以上之趨勢與敏感度分析，擬定兩個氣候變遷情境，發現情境一高雄地區平均水稻田蒸發散量一期作約增加7.5%，二期作則約增加6%。情境二之情怳下，則各約增加6.5%與3.5%。

The effect of climate change on water resources is an important aspect in this decade. As the irrigation water requirements of paddy rice is a primary water demand in Taiwan, the study attends to investigate the effect of climate change on evapotranspiraton of the paddy rice and its sensitivity analysis.
The work first studied the trends and persistence of meteorological factors at Kaohsiung station using the methods of Mann-Kendall, Cumulative deviation, Kruskal-Wallis, Simple linear regression and first order autocorrelation. Forty-eight years records of temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, precipitation and days of no precipitation provide the database. Results indicate that only temperature and relative humidity have significant long-term trends and persistence.
Modified Penman formula is utilized to estimate the actual evapotranspiration of paddy rice. The study further carried out the sensitive analysis of meteorological factors on the formula. Solar radiation, relative humidity and temperature are found to have sensitive influence on evapotranspiration. As the sunshine duration does not have a statistically trend, the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration will be greatly influenced by temperature and relative humidity.
Based on the above trend and sensitive analysis, two scenarios are assumed to investigate the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration. In the first scenario, the evapotranspiration of paddy rice for two recurrent periods in Kaohsiung area will increase 7.5% and 6%, respectively. In the second scenario, the increase will be 6.5% and 3%, respectively.

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌 謝 iii
目 錄 iv
表 目 錄 vi
圖 目 錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究目的與方法 1
1-2 相關文獻回顧 2
1-3 本文組織架構 4
第二章 氣象因子趨勢及持續性分析 6
2-1 台灣地區氣候變遷概況 6
2-2 Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定 12
2-3 均一性檢定 14
2-4 Kruskal-Wallis因子分類變異數分析 18
2-5 迴歸分析 21
2-6 持續性分析 36
2-7 討論 38
第三章 Modify Penman蒸發散估算式敏感度分析 40
3-1 水稻田蒸發散估算式 40
3-2 作物係數Kc 44
3-3 模式敏感度分析 46
3-4 結果與討論 49
第四章 氣候變遷對水稻田灌溉需水量之影響 56
4-1 灌溉需水量之推估 56
4-2 有效雨量之推估 58
4-3 滲漏量之推估 59
4-4 氣候變遷對水稻田灌溉需水量之模擬 61
第五章 結論與建議 68
5-1 結論 68
5-2 建議 69
參考文獻 70

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