摘 要
CCM2控制模擬與ECMWF或其他相關研究結果之比較，在東亞夏季季風區、太平洋以及美洲夏季季風區均大致吻合。總體而言，CCM2在運動場及高度場方面，有可信賴的模擬結果表現。
本篇研究論文，吾人以點冷源之西藏高原覆雪增量為思考的起源，歸納本篇研究論文研究的目的有三：(1)瞭解西藏高原覆雪的增加，對東亞夏季季風產生的影響為何？(2) 瞭解西藏高原覆雪的增加，對全球行星尺度波動產生的影響為何？(3) 瞭解季風環流中，在不同下墊面不同波數領域貢獻又是為何？
藉由控制模擬與降雪模擬之比較，西藏高原覆雪增量並沒有改變東亞夏季季風的特徵，高低層季風環流的特徵，在降雪模擬中，仍顯現出來。吾人認為西藏高原覆雪的增加，透過土壤溼度、地表反照率及融雪所需的輻射能等三個物理機制，影響到大氣環流，而環流的影響亦可分成三方面：
1) 藉由高低層風場，高層高度場及高層渦度場的分析，西藏高原覆雪延遲了東亞夏季季風的建立，約5~10天，影響的範圍為東亞夏季季風區。
2) 跨赤道波列及北極區波列的產生，跨赤道波列產生的機制係為bv效應，大氣係處於非線性(nonlinear)及消散(dissipative)的狀態，影響的區域為南半球高緯度地區，北極區波列影響的範圍為北半球高緯度地區，上述兩組波列主要由波數1-3所組成，而其振幅約為西藏高原反氣旋的1/8。
3) 強迫性的羅士比波，透過流函數場、高度場及運動場等不同氣象變數的分析，均有一致性的波列產生，影響範圍為美洲大陸地區。上述的降雪模擬減去控制模擬之差值，與1998年減去1997年NCEP觀測資料之差值相比較，在遙地波列方面，模擬與觀測資料在北半球中高緯度有相當一致性的結果。
在波數領域分析方面，對東亞地區高層反氣旋而言，全球行星尺度波數1、2和4有較大的正貢獻；對墨西哥反氣旋而言，波數2和4有較大的正貢獻。此外，波數2及波數3的貢獻相反，但波數3的數值比波數2小，波數2的分佈主要是海陸分佈，而在海陸交界面上主要以波數3及波數4為主。CCM2的高層流函數模擬，在不同的波數領域，均掌握了對赤道反對稱及北強南弱的特性。

封面
摘要
致謝
目錄
圖目錄
一、前言
二、模式與模擬策略
2.1 模式介紹
2.2 模式中覆雪扮演的角色
2.3 模擬實驗設計
三、控制模擬結果之比較與討論
3.1 緯向風
3.2 經向風
3.3 流函數和速度位
3.4 高度場
四、降雪實驗設計結果分析
4.1 夏季季平均之流函數與速度位
4.2 夏季季平均之高度場
4.3 夏季季平均之風場
4.4 1997/1998年夏季季平均觀測資料之分析
4.5 夏季季平均之降雨
五、時序分析
5.1 流函數之時序分析
5.2 緯向風場之時序分析
5.3 高度場之時序分析
5.4 1997/98年觀測資料分析
六、討論
七、機制探討
7.1 延遲機制之探討
7.2 跨赤道波列機制之探討
八、結論與展望
8.1 結論
8.2 展望
參考文獻

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