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研究生:吳逸民
研究生(外文):Wu, Yih-Min
論文名稱:地震速報與預警系統之發展-台灣經驗
論文名稱(外文):Development of Real-time Earthquake Reporting and Warning Systems - Taiwan Experience
指導教授:蔡義本蔡義本引用關係辛在勤辛在勤引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tsai, Yi-BenShin, Tzay-Chyn
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:地球物理研究所
學門:自然科學學門
學類:地球科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1999
畢業學年度:87
語文別:中文
論文頁數:152
中文關鍵詞:地震速報系統地震預警系統地震減災強震P波剪力波
外文關鍵詞:seismic rapid reportingearly warning systemseismic hazard mitigationstrong motionP waveshear wave
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由地震減災的觀點而言,速報及預警系統將會是降低大地震所帶來損失之兩個重要方法。近年來中央氣象局裝置了即時強震網從事有感地震之觀測工作,為了使此觀測網發揮其最大用途,本研究以此觀測網為基礎建立了地震速報系統及從事地震預警系統之研究。地震速報系統的功能為:在地震發生後一分鐘至數十分鐘內提供地震資訊以加速救災反應;地震預警系統的功能為:於地震發生後在破壞性的地震波來襲之前的數秒至數十秒內提出警告,這警告將可以直接用於生命財產的搶救。這些資訊對於都會區的地震防救災扮演相當重要的角色。
本研究建立了一個有效率的地震自動地位系統,所以即時強震網系統得以在地震發生後一分鐘得到地震消息,而且其決定出之震源位置及規模的正確率都在一定水準以上。為了使此系統發揮到最大的效益,我們將四種消息發佈的管道與其結合,此四種發佈管道為電子郵件(E-Mail)﹑全球資訊網(WWW)﹑檔案下載伺服器(FTP Server)及電子傳呼系統(Pager System),由於此四種管道的加入,此系統從訊號的接收到最後消息的發佈得以完全自動化。
地震預警中兩項重要的關鍵為地震位置及規模大小之決定,根據即時強震網的測站分佈及地震之特性,在地震發生的初期要決定地震的位置較容易達到,但是在同一時段要決定地震規模大小則較為困難,由於多數的剪力波仍未傳達。雖然有許多學者嘗試由地震P波去決定規模,但是由於不確定度太大而未能真正實際運用或運用而帶來太多錯誤預警。因此,本研究依據TREIRS的測站分佈提出一個快速且可靠的規模計算方法,可以在第一個的測站收到地震初達波訊號後15秒內決定地震規模。這樣的規模計算方法將能非常有效的運用於地震預警系統中。
為了測試地震預警在台灣的可行性,本研究於1997年7月由即時強震網中挑選花蓮附近的測站,成立一速報花蓮子網從事地震預警之試驗,至1998年2月24日為止蒐集了23個地震,其規模分佈從3.7到5.5。比較速報花蓮子網與TREIRS兩系統決定出震源參數之時間,發現速報花蓮子網表現極佳的時效性。一般而言,可於地震發生後20秒內決定出震源參數。以花蓮地區發生的地震而言,剪力波傳遞至台北地區需要30秒,速報花蓮子網地震發生後20秒內決定出震源參數,將為台北地區帶來至少10秒的預警時間,這些時間將可以有效地運用於緊急減災措施。
綜合所述,本研究建立了TREIRS系統奠定了台灣地震速報的發展,由本研究提出之快速且可靠的規模計算方法及速報花蓮子網的試驗都證明地震預警在台灣是可行的。隨著軟硬體的進步,地震預警在台灣將可以逐步實現。
From the standpoint of seismic hazard mitigation, rapid reporting and early warning systems are becoming two of the promising tools for reduction of loss caused by a damaging earthquake. Recently, a real-time strong-motion network was installed in the Taiwan area by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) for monitoring purposes. In order to maximize the use of data from this network, a seismic rapid reporting (Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information Release System, TREIRS) and an early warning system were developed in this study. The aim of the TREIRS is to provide rapid earthquake information (from one minute to tens minutes after an earthquake occurred) for emergency rapid response. And the aim of the early warning system is to provide a warning time from a few seconds to tens of seconds before the actual arrival of strong shaking caused by a large earthquake at some distance away. This information will be very useful to minimize property damage and loss of lives in metropolitan areas.
An efficient earthquake auto-location algorithm has been developed in this study. The TREIRS can now routinely obtain earthquake information within one minute after the occurrence of an earthquake, using this new algorithm. Good quality of the hypocenter and magnitude determinations can be obtained. In order to take full advantage of this capability, four automatic information broadcast media, namely, E-mail, World Wide Web, FTP server and pager system, have been configured to receive and transmit automatically the earthquake information from the TREIRS. This new automatic earthquake information broadcast system will enable the CWB to disseminate information for felt earthquakes even more quickly and widely than its current practice through fax and paper reports.
Two major requirements for a seismic early warning system are the near real-time estimations of the earthquake location and magnitude. The first requirement on rapid location is much easier to handle as long as there are clear arrival-time readings. The second requirement of rapid determination of the earthquake magnitude is less trivial because the shear wave trains may not be recorded completely in the same time windows. Many researchers have tried to estimate magnitude from the initial portion of accelerograms, but large uncertainties becomes a big problem for practical application. Thus, a method for quick magnitude determination needs to be developed. Based on the current configuration of the TREIRS and its monitoring area, we present an empirical method to reliably determine earthquake magnitude within 15 sec after the P-wave arrival at the nearest station. This method, described in this thesis, will be very useful for seismic early warning system.
For testing seismic early warning in Taiwan, we setup, in July 1997, a real-time strong-motion sub-network at Hualien region from the TREIRS. By February 24, 1998, twenty-two events, with magnitude distribution from 3.7 to 5.5 were recorded. By comparing the performance of the sub-network results with that of the TREIRS, the sub-network performed a faster reporting time (i.e. 20 seconds). For earthquakes occurred in the Hualien area, a 20-sec reporting time will offer about ten seconds of early warning for Taipei area. And this advanced warning time will be available for emergency response, such as slowing down rapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment, orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown of manufacturing operations to reduce potential loss, and safe-guarding computer facilities to save vital information.
To minimize earthquake hazards, the society should have a capability to response to damaging earthquakes quickly. In this study, we have established the TREIRS system for seismic rapid response, presented an empirical method to reliably and quickly determine earthquake magnitude for seismic early warning, and established a sub-network for testing seismic early warning, all of this series of studies will pave the way for practical operation of seismic early warning in Taiwan.
封面
中文摘要
誌謝
目錄
圖目
表目
符號說明
第一章 緒論
1.1 速報及預警系統之定義
1.2 速報及預警系統之發展背景
1.3 速報及預警系統面臨的瓶頸
第二章 速報系統之建立
2.1 即時加速度型地震觀測網之簡介
2.2 自動定位系統
2.3 地震規模之計算
2.4 地震消息的傳遞
第三章 速報系統之成效評估
3.1 地震消息自動發佈的時效性
3.2 地震消息自動發佈的正確性
3.3 1998年瑞里地震對速報系統之檢驗
3.4 討論
第四章 速報系統之最適化測站分佈
4.1 資料
4.2 最適化測站分佈之計算
4.3 討論
第五章 以現行速報系統從事地震預警之試驗
5.1 以區域子網從事地震預警之試驗--花蓮子網
5.2 預警系統中快速且可靠之規模計算方法
5.3 綜合討論
第六章 總結
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