在對半導體製造系統進行產能評估時，有兩種工具較常被使用，一是等候線模型，另一是模擬模型。等候線模型的特點在運算快速且準確性高，然而其最大的缺點則是其穩態假設；模擬模型的特點在能提供詳細的資訊但其缺點是計算時間過長。然而由於近來半導體產業的產品生命週期縮短且市場需求波動加劇，造成產品組合調整快速。過短的產品組合時間加上產品製造程序漫長(Long Process Flow)的特性，使得生產系統難以達到穩態，而基於穩態假設的等候線模型不再適用。本研究的目的是以等候線模型為工具，針對非穩態生產系統發展所謂的半動態產能模型。主要的研究項目包括：等候線模型及半動態產能模型。首先，本研究針對半導體製造的特性進行探討，發展一等候線模型。接著發展一套在製品追蹤流程，以類似於模擬模型但運算較為快速之方法評估非穩態系統。

Queueing and simulation methodologies have been applied to capacity modeling in semiconductor manufacturing. The advantage of queueing capacity model is the rapid computation time. The software that implements a queueing model can usually obtain estimates under two minutes for fabs that take hours to simulate. Simulation model could provide detail information but consume numerous computation load. However, product mix is changed rapid since the life cycle of the product is shorter than before and market demand is fluctuated with time. The manufacturing system would not be the steady state because of short product mix cycles and the long process flow production. The queueing capacity model based on steady state is invalid for the semiconductor manufacturing. This study developed semi-dynamic capacity model for non-steady state manufacturing system using queueing capacity model. This research contains queueing and semi-dynamic capacity models. First, the characteristic of semiconductor manufacturing is described. Then, a queueing capacity model and WIP tracking system were developed. The system evaluates non-steady state manufacturing system using agile simulation-based model.

第 1 章： 緒論1
1.1 研究背景與動機1
1.2 問題描述3
1.3 研究目的與範圍4
第 2 章： 文獻探討6
2.1 產能分析6
2.1.1 模擬模式6
2.1.2 解析模式7
2.1.3 產能分析研究成果8
2.2 績效指標9
2.3 等候理論(Queuing Theory)10
2.4 在製品推測15
第 3 章： 半動態產能規劃模式17
3.1 穩態產能模型17
3.1.1 Traffic Rates之計算21
3.1.2 Batch Size之計算23
3.1.3 Traffic Variability之計算30
3.1.4 Queueing Delay之計算39
3.1.5 機台支援決策模型41
3.2 半動態產能模型43
3.2.1 模型架構44
3.2.2 WIP追蹤模組49
3.2.3 穩態模型修正模組55
第 4 章： 結論與未來研究方向57
4.1 結論57
4.2 未來研究方向57
參考文獻:58

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