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研究生:范淼
研究生(外文):Fan, Miao
論文名稱:計畫風險事件之處置--分析模型之建立與應用
論文名稱(外文):BUILDING AN ANALYTIC MODEL OF PROJECT RISK HANDLING
指導教授:林能白林能白引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lin, Neng-pai
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:商學研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:一般商業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1999
畢業學年度:87
語文別:中文
論文頁數:85
中文關鍵詞:計畫風險管理風險處置風險處置成本
外文關鍵詞:project risk managementrisk handlingrisk handling cost
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過去的研究中,大都從程序管理的觀點,探討計畫之風險管理,並將之區分為風險界定、風險評估、風險分析、以及風險處置等四個階段,其中,只有風險處置具有降低計畫風險的效果;然而,這一部份的研究卻十分少見,多數的研究都在於探討計畫管理者,如何經由風險之界定、評估、以及分析等階段後,做出方案選擇的決策,至於所選定之方案中的風險,則假定其無法改變,也就是說,不考慮風險處置。本研究則是以計畫之風險事件為分析單位,探討計畫管理者在面臨所選定方案中之風險事件時,如何選擇適當的風險處置以降低計畫之風險。
根據風險的定義與實務上的觀察,可將風險處置可以區分為風險預防與風險適應兩類行為。本研究先以個案研究方法,觀察計畫中的風險事件及其與兩類處置行為間的關係,發現對選擇風險處置有影響的因素,包括風險事件的可控程度、計畫特性、以及風險處置成本等,再根據此一觀察結果,建立一個風險處置成本的分析模型,對模型進行最適化分析後,應用分析的結果探討計畫管理者應如何選擇適當的風險處置行為,才能以最低的處置成本達到降低風險的目標。
研究的結果發現,當風險事件的可控程度很低時,應傾向於採用風險適應行為;但當風險事件之可控程度高時,則需視計畫與事件的特性而定;若風險事件的複雜度愈低、計畫執行環境的彈性愈小、資金與時程愈緊迫、事件風險所可能造成的損失規模愈大,則愈傾向於採取風險預防行為。
本研究的研究發現,在理論上,建立了一個風險處置的分析性模型,用以分析計畫管理者在面臨風險時,如何選擇風險處置外,對未來的研究而言,亦建立了一個較廣的觀點來探討計畫之風險管理;此外,在計畫風險管理實務上亦具有相當的參考價值。
Project risk management are generally considered as a procedure, which consists of several phases including risk identify, risk assessment, risk analysis, and risk handling. Among these phases, only risk handling has the effect of reducing project risk level. Nevertheless, most of the project risk management researchers focus on identifying, assessing, and analysis the risk, and making a choice among those specified alternatives. The possibility of handling the risky events to reduce the risk level was ignored by those researchers.
According to the results of case study, two risk-handling strategies: risk preventive and risk adaptive was defined. The case study also finds the selection between those two strategies is based on the consideration of handling cost. To describe and analysis the risk handling selection, an analytic model was build, which the associated cost of the strategy was included. The optimum solution, which means the least cost handling strategy, and its implications was also discussed.
The main findings of this research are: 1.As the controllability is law the selection should incline to risk adaptive. 2.As the controllability is high the selection should consider the event and project characters. The less complicated the event is, the less flexible the environment is, the tighter the budget and schedule is, and the larger the loss that caused by the event is the selection should incline to risk preventive. The project management implications of these findings are also discussed.
封面
誌謝
論文摘要
英文摘要
目錄
圖目錄
表目錄
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機
第二節 研究目的
第二章 文獻之探討與分析
第一節 風險的本質
第二節 計畫之風險管理
第三節 風險處置的相關理論
第四節 計畫之風險處置
第三章 初步分析之架構與變項定義
第一節 研究範疇與問題界定
第二節 研究方法與設計
第三節 風險處置之初步分析架構
第四節 相關變項之定義
第五節 風險事件與風險處置之分類
第四章 個案研究
第一節 個案研究的目的
第二節 個案研究設計
第三節 個案分析
第四節 個案研究的發現與意義
第五章 風險處置之模型與分析
第一節 建立分析模型的目的
第二節 建立分析模型的基本理念
第三節 模型之構建
第四節 風險處置成本之最適化分析
第五節 最適化分析的結果與意義
第六章 結論與未來研究方向
第一節 本研究之研究結果
第二節 研究結果在管理理論與實務上的意義
第三節 未來研究方向
第四節 研究結論
參考文獻
個案研究資料
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