臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著目前國內經濟的快速成長，垃圾產出量持續的增加是可預期的，垃圾妥善處理已是目前刻不容緩的環保工作，而各項固體廢棄物之設計規劃則需較準確的垃圾量推估模式作為基礎。本研究之目的，除探討相關社經因素對垃圾量產出之影響外，並以統計方法分析各項社經因子與垃圾量之關連性，根據其關連性導演出垃圾量產出之預估模式，建立台灣省二十一縣市及台北市、高雄市兩直轄市各縣市個別之垃圾產出量預估模式，供各縣市環保單位於固體廢棄物管理政策訂定之參考依據。
本研究所採用之統計分析方法為多元線性迴歸模式，考慮八項社經因子包括每戶人口數、教育程度、國民所得、工業性指標、商業性指標、總支出中食品支出所佔百分比、都市計畫區內人口佔總人口之百分比以及消費者物價指數等，分析各項自變數對於垃圾產出量之影響，以建立各縣市之垃圾量預估模式。研究結果發現，教育程度、國民所得與商業資本額等三項自變數，相較於其他社經因子，其對於垃圾產出量之影響較為顯著。
此外，根據本研究所建立之垃圾產出量預估模式，預估台灣地區各縣市於民國一百年之每人每日垃圾量，其預估值介於1.13至1.65公斤／人／日之間。若就垃圾產出量之成長趨勢而言，各縣市於未來十多年內之垃圾產出量仍呈現逐年遞增之情形，但其成長速率卻有逐漸緩和之現象，表示各縣市之垃圾產出量有減率增加之趨勢。此可解析為過去數年來環保單位大力推動資源回收，垃圾減量及其相關教育宣導工作已有階段性成效，且將持續影響到未來垃圾產出量。

As the domestic economy grows rapidly, the increase of solid waste generation is predictable. Proper treatment of solid waste is an important task. However, the design and planning of solid waste management system depends on accurate prediction of waste generation. The objective of this research was to find out the relationship between waste generation rate and socioeconomic factors and to establish the solid waste generation forecasting models of 23 counties and cities in Taiwan individually.
The statistic method employed in this research was multiple linear regression analysis. Eight socioeconomic factors included persons per household, education level, personal and family income, industrial index, commercial index, percentage of food consumption expenditure, percentage of urban population and consumer price index. By analysing the influence of independent variables on waste generation rate, the forecasting models of waste generation could be established. The results indicate that three independent variables including education level, income, and commercial index are more important than other socioeconomic factors.
According to the solid waste generation forecasting models established in this research, the waste generation of 23 counties in Taiwan in 2011 is between 1.13 and 1.65 kg/cap/day. Besides, the growth trend of solid waste generation in the next ten years is increasing, but the rate of growth is decreasing gradually. That means the growth rate of waste generation in the next ten years will have a decreasing-rate-of-increase trend. This can be explained that the policies of waste reduction and recycling have shown some effect and will continue to affect waste generation rate in the future.

目錄
摘 要.................................................................................................I
英文摘要...........................................................................................II
目 錄...............................................................................................III
圖目錄.............................................................................................VI
表附錄............................................................................................VII
第一章 前言......................................................................................1
1-1 研究緣起與目的.......................................................................1
1-2 研究範圍..................................................................................2
第二章 文獻研討...............................................................................3
2-1 影響垃圾產出量之因素............................................................3
2-2 垃圾產出量預估模式................................................................6
2-2-1 物質流模式（Material Flow Model）..................................6
2-2-2 排放係數模式（Generation Coefficient Model）..................8
2-2-3 時間序列模式（Time Series Model）................................10
2-2-4 利用人口統計及社會經濟變數預測垃圾量......................11
2-3 統計分析方法..........................................................................13
2-4 台灣地區垃圾產出量之歷年成長趨勢.....................................15
第三章 研究方法..............................................................................19
3-1 研究流程與架構......................................................................19
3-2 統計分析方法論之確定...........................................................22
3-2-1 時間序列模式（Time Series Model）................................22
3-2-2 計量經濟模式（Econometric Model）...............................24
3-2-3 多元線性迴歸模式 (Multiple Linear Regression Model).......25
3-2-4 綜合比較...........................................................................31
3-3 模式中之參數..........................................................................33
3-4 統計分析..................................................................................36
3-5 未來垃圾產出量之預測...........................................................37
3-5-1 自變數之預估...................................................................37
3-5-2 人口數之預測...................................................................38
第四章 結果與討論..........................................................................41
4-1 模式之建立..............................................................................41
4-1-1 縣行政區垃圾產出量預估模式之推演.............................41
4-1-2 省轄市行政區垃圾產出量預估模式之推演......................54
4-1-3 直轄市行政區垃圾產出量預估模式之推演......................65
4-1-3-1 台北市垃圾產出量預估模式之推演...........................65
4-1-3-2 高雄市垃圾產出量預估模式之推演...........................76
4-2 台灣地區二十三縣市垃圾產出量之預估模式..........................87
4-3 社經因子對垃圾量之影響........................................................98
4-3-1 每戶人口數.......................................................................98
4-3-2 教育程度.........................................................................100
4-3-3 國民所得.........................................................................100
4-3-4 工業性指標.....................................................................101
4-3-5 商業性指標.....................................................................101
4-3-6 總支出中食品所佔百分比...............................................102
4-3-7 都市計畫區內人口佔總人口百分比................................102
4-3-8 消費者物價指數..............................................................103
4-3-9 社經因子對台灣地區二十三縣市垃圾產出量之影響重..103
4-3-10 城鄉發展相關社經因子與垃圾產出量之關係...............107
4-3-11 環保行政建制對垃圾產出量之影響..............................110
4-4 垃圾產出量預估模式之應用..................................................112
第五章 結論與建議.........................................................................116
5-1 結論........................................................................................116
5-2 建議........................................................................................123
參考文獻..........................................................................................124

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