臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

論文提要內容：
本文是以亞太地區第一個多邊安全對話機制-東協區域論壇為研
究對象。在問題意識上，首要釐清的是：（1）為何要成立東協區域論
壇（2）東協區域論壇之內涵為何，並由前兩者延伸出，
構成本文各章重心的九個研究架設，換言之，本文的研究重心即是解釋這些研究假設。
本文共分五章，第二章是探討東協區域論壇最根本的問題，即
是其緣起的歷史背景與因素，而歷史文獻則提供了這方面的資料。二
戰結束後，美國為執行圍堵政策，分別與東亞盟邦建立雙邊軍事關係
，期間雖有東南亞公約組織（SEATO）的多邊安全架構，但成效不彰。
在東亞各國國情複雜與其間關係的敵友不明下，美國難以將其統合
成類似北約組織（NATO），只能因地制宜的維持雙邊架構，而這也
符合東亞各國的各自需求。後冷戰時期，這樣的雙邊架構並未發生質
變，但多邊安全機制卻已開始醞釀，能否成功取決於東協國家與美國的
態度，因前者已有一東協後部長會議（ASEAN-PMC）討論安全的機
制，後者考量到多邊架構能否發揮實質功能，與其主導地位可能被取
代之疑慮。中共與日本是區域大國，其對此的態度也應予以重視。
第三章是就當前東協區域論壇的運作與發展，即其內涵作一介紹
。第二屆的概念性文件（A Concept Paper）提出東協區域論壇運作的
四原則：（一）漸步演進途徑；（二）共識原則；（三）自願原則；
（四）雙軌並行。論壇的發展分為三階段：第一階段，提昇信心建立措施；
第二階段，發展預防外交機制；第三階段，推敲解決衝突途徑。
東協區域論壇既是以區域安全為討論、對話場域，其對此之看
法便關乎論壇能否降低區域衝突的作用。亞太安全四個潛在衝突點：
台海問題、朝鮮半島問題、南海問題、柬埔寨問題。東亞金融危機則
成為檢驗論壇能否處理綜合性安全的能力，然而卻凸顯出美國於此時
的重要性。經由第四章的探討，論壇對潛在衝突的降溫仍未有所成效
，軍備競賽仍無法避免。
在研究發現上，（一）共同性安全、綜合性安全、合作性安全等
三安全概念的整合，才能有效處理區域安全的問題，這打破了單一安
全概念無法有效解釋亞太安全的侷限性；（二）亞太地區的環境與歐
洲不同，若將後者的經驗解釋前者，將會圓枘方鑿，相異地區發展所
得之理論，未必能放諸四海而皆準；（三）華爾茲的結構現實主義對
釐清美國與東協對多邊安全架構的態度，以及處理多邊與雙邊的矛盾
情節上，提供了最佳論據；（四）美國是以另一種型態駐留亞太地區，
不因撤出菲律賓的基地而產生權力真空；（五）多邊安全機制是立基
於雙邊架構之上，且兩者並存，但現今情勢是雙邊作用大於多邊，而
這正是當前亞太安全的圖像；（六）以東協國家代表東協十國對區域
事務一致的看法，實是忽略其多元分歧的特性，這是研究東南亞事務
時所應注意的；（七）東協區域論壇成員國的協調、整合、相容是論
壇發展的基礎。
至於論壇未來的發展，應朝制度化、與非東協國家的聯合主席
、強化綜合性安全與合作性安全等方面發展

Abstract
ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF) is the first multilateral security dialogue in Asia- Pacific as well as the object of this thesis. Most importantly of this thesis is to clean up the consciousness of this thesis: (1)what''s the reason to establish the ARF; (2)what''s the content of the ARF. There are nine hypotheses from former and structure the chapters and center of thesis.
There are five chapters of the thesis. Chapter tow is to probe the fundamental question: the origin of historical background and factors of the ARF. After the World War II, U.S. established the bilateral military relations in order to implement the cotainment policy. Meanwhile, the SEATO was established, a multilateral security framework, but it wouldn''t work effectively. U.S. was hardly to make up the structure like NATO in East Asia where has complex and diverse situation. To maintain the bilateral relations, it is suitable for U.S. and East Asia''s states in the changeable condition. In the post-Cold War, the bilateral relations is still the adamantine, but multilateral security structure is also run up in this time. The multilateral security framework can work or not, it depends on the position of ASEAN states and U.S. China and Japan are power states in the region, their position are also important to notice.
The chapter three is the ARF''s work and development. A Concept Paper submitted the four principles of ARF''s work: (1)gradually revolving; (2)consensus principle; (3)voluntary principle; (4)two tracks co-existence. The development stages: fist step is the promotion of confidence building measures; second step is the development of preventive diplomacy; third step is elaboration of approaches to conflicts.
There are four potential conflicts in Asia-Pacific conflicts in Asia-Pacific: Taiwan Strait tension, Korean Peninsula tension, South China Sea issue, Cambodia issue, all of them are the ARF concerned. The current East Asia Financial crisis is the opportunity to exam the function of the ARF, whether it can reduce conflicts or not? In fact, U.S. is outstanding during this time. Through the research of the chapter four, many evidences show the ARF can''t reduce the potential conflicts effectively, arm race is still growth.
Finally, we find seven points in the conclusion: (1)common security, comprehensive security, cooperative security can''t explain the Asia-Pacific security completely by individual, but they can work in integration, it is very important to researcher. (2)The environment between the Europe and Asia-Pacific is very different, so they can not explain the situations of Asia-Pacific and somewhere else form the experience and theories of Europe. (3)It is very helpful to clean up the position of ASEAN and U.S., and cope with the contradiction between the multilateral and bilateral from Kenneth N. Waltz''s neorealism. (4)There is no power vacuum since U.S. withdrew it''s troop from Philippines, the reason is the advanced technology changed the type of presentation in the Asia-Pacific. (5)Multilateral security mechanism is based on the bilateral framework, and they are co-existence. In the situation of the present, the function of bilateral is more useful than multilateral, and this is the drawing of Asia-Pacific security. (6)ASEAN states can''t delegate the whole Southeast Asia states, because there are many diversities and pluralities among them. (7)Coordination, integration. Coexistence ate the fundamental of the development of the ARF.
The future development of the ARF ., it should toward the institutionalization, co-chair jointly by non ASEAN states, strengthen comprehensive security and cooperative security.

目 錄
第一章 緒 論……………………………………………………………..1
第一節 引 言…………………………………………………………1
第二節 研究動機與目的………………………………………………4
第三節 研究理論與分析架構…………………………………………9
第四節 研究方法與限制……………………………………………..15
第五節 相關安全概念的名詞解釋…………………………………..17
第二章 東協區域論壇的緣起與主要國家的態度………………………..23
第一節 曾出現過的多邊安全架構與
東協區域論壇的成立………………………………………..24
第二節 美國的態度…………………………………………………..34
第三節 東協的態度…………………………………………………..47
第四節 中共與日本的態度…………………………………………..52
第五節 小結…………………………………………………………58
第三章 東協區域論壇當前之運作與發展……………………………….59
第一節 東協區域論壇當前之運作概況…………………………….59
第二節 東協區域論壇當前之發展階段…………………………….66
第三節 小結………………………………………………………….80
第四章 東協區域論壇對區域衝突的看法……………………………...81
第一節 台海問題…………………………………………………….81
第二節 朝鮮半島問題……………………………………………….87
第三節 南海問題…………………………………………………….92
第四節 柬埔寨問題………………………………………………….102
第五節 東亞金融危機……………………………………………….103
第六節 小結………………………………………………………….112
第五章 結 論…………………………………………………………….113
第一節 研究展望…………………………………………………….113
第二節 研究展望…………………………………………………….116
參考書目…………………………………………………………………..121
附錄一：第一屆東協區域論壇主席聲明……………………………….139
附錄二：第二屆東協區域論壇主席聲明……………………………….143
附錄三：第三屆東協區域論壇主席聲明……………………………….151
附錄四：第四屆東協區域論壇主席聲明……………………………….163
附錄五：第五屆東協區域論壇主席聲明……………………………….173
附錄六：東協區域論壇概念性文件…………………………………….187
附錄七：Summary of ARF agreed CBMs………………………………195
附錄八：ARF agreed CBMs:
Bilateral Regional Security Dialogues………………………...197
附錄九：ARF Agreed CBMs:
High Level Defence Contacts since 1995……………………..199
附錄十：ARF agreed CBMs:
Defence Training/Exchanges since 1995……………………...201
附錄十一：ARF agreed CBMs: Provision of Information……………...203
附錄十二：ARF agreed CBMs: Participation in
Global Arms Control and Disarmament Regimes…………...205
圖表目錄
圖1-1 東協區域論壇的成員國…………………………………………….7
圖1-2 東協欲以雙邊及多邊達到亞太全力平衡…………………………13
圖5-1 東協區域論壇的展………………………………………………...116
表 2-1 亞太安全體系的相關提案………………………………………...33
表 2-2 美國與亞太國家的雙邊與多邊軍事演習………………………...45
表 2-3 美國在亞太地區的軍事交往……………………………………...46
表 2-4 東南亞的主權、合法性與領土衝突……………………………...48
表 3-1 東協區域論壇的會議與活動（1994-1999）……………………..64
表 3-2 曾於東協區域論壇舉行期間討論的主題………………………...65
表 3-3 東協區域論壇之成員同意新加入論壇之標準…………………...66
表 3-4 東協區域論壇信心建立措施輔助小組（ISG）
召開的時間及地點………………………………………………..72
表 3-5 東協區域論壇成員國執行各項信心建立措施項目摘要………...76
表 4-1 新防衛指針達成之美日安保相關事項之演進…………………...91
表 4-2 中國人民解放軍海軍配有艦載直昇機之水面艦………………...97
表4-3 南沙群島爭議之時間序列……………………………………….. 101

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（三）報紙
中國時報
聯合報
自立早報
自由時報
聯合早報
明報
（四）學位論文
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二、英文部份
（一）專書
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（二）期刊
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（三）報紙
Los Angeles Times
Philippine Daily Inquirer
Philippine Star
The Straits Times
The Nation
The Manila Times
The New York Times
Washington Post
三、日文部份
（一） 期刊
宇垣 大成，1999年3月，〈特殊潛水艇侵入事件 緊迫 北朝鮮情勢〉，《世界 艦船》，頁一○四。
川村純彥，1996年8月，〈南支那海 1996〉，《世界 艦船》，頁七十七。
〈中國軍艦 現勢〉，1999年3月，《世界 艦船》，頁二十八~三十四。
日野 景一，1997年12月〈日米防衛協力 正適合意振 〉，《世界 艦船》，頁一一○。
（二）報紙
日本讀賣新聞
日本朝日新聞
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http://www.dfat.gov.au/arf
http://www.asean.or.id/
http://www.csis.org/
http://www.stimson.org/
http://www.icg.org/intelweb/pacific.html
http://hantilus.org/napsnet/index.html
http://coombs.aus.edu.au/Depts/RSPAS/AUSCSCAP/Auscscap.html
http://sipri.se/
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/iiss/news497.htm#6