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研究生:周笑平
研究生(外文):Chow, Warren Hsiao-ping
論文名稱:網路公司股價評價之實證研究
論文名稱(外文):Valuation of Internet Shares
指導教授:李存修李存修引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tsun-siou Lee
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:財務金融學研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2000
畢業學年度:88
語文別:英文
論文頁數:103
中文關鍵詞:網際網路瀏覽時間贏家全收首先達到影響規模
外文關鍵詞:Internetview timewinner-take-allfirst-to-scale
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論文名稱:網路公司股價評價之實證研究 頁數 :103
校 所 別:國立台灣大學財務金融研究所
畢業時間及提要別:八十八學年度第二學期碩士學位論文提要
研 究 生:周笑平
指導教授:李存修博士
論文提要
網路股的評價對投資人、分析師及學術界來說,一直是一項很困擾的問題。財經專家雖有精闢的評論,但也難以說明為何網路股會有如此不可思議的飆漲。傳統的財務評價方法已經無法解釋網路公司真正的價值為何,因此對此問題充滿困惑但卻有心探究的人士來說,就必須先從瞭解網際網路如何對企業經營及運作產生影響來著手,再進而推算其企業之價值。
本研究先對網際網路產業的特有現象及新的運作機制做一說明,並分析列舉出網際網路公司之主要成功因素。依據此為基礎,作者挑選出一系列與網際網路公司市場價值有關聯性的影響因子來作複迴歸分析。分析的被解釋變數有兩種:MV(n)和PSG,並對解釋變數採不同的形式變化及組合作迴歸分析。分析結果證實某些因子的確對股價之變化有明顯之影響。
最後作者提到此研究之結果對投資人有何意義,並建議一些新的影響因子及方法論作為日後更進一步的研究應用。
關鍵字:網際網路,瀏覽時間,贏家全收,首先達到影響規模
Title of Thesis: Valuation of Internet Shares Total pages: 103
Name of Institute: Graduate Institute of Finance, National Taiwan University
Graduate Date: June 2000 Degree Conferred: Master
Name of Student: Warren Hsiao-ping Chow
Advisor: Dr. Tsun-siou Lee
Abstract
The puzzle for Internet stocks valuation continues to confound investors, analysts and academics alike. Pundits, their wise commentary notwithstanding, are hard put to explain the irrational exuberance prompting the Internet rally.
Classical financial valuation tools are not adequate for expressing the true value of an Internet company. Understanding how the internet has affected the way these companies evolved and do business and relating this understanding to an Internet company''s valuation remains essential to those who are concerned yet perplexed.
This study presents a collection of unique phenomena and new mechanisms developed only in the Internet business world. There is also a discussion about what are the key successful factors of an Internet business. Using this information, the author selected several metrics for evaluating their association with company’s market capitalization. The author examined the consequences of applying several multiple regression models (Simple Linear Model, Power of 2 Model, Lin-log Model, etc.) onto both MV(n) and PSG as dependent variables, and observed the changes of contributing ability of factors toward them under various combinations of influential factors. The empirical evidence suggests that several factors heavily influence the stock price performance.
The author also discusses the implications of the findings for Internet investors. Finally, the study suggests some new factors and more complicated methodologies that investors might use to assess Internet shares.
Keyword: Internet, view time, winner-take-all, first-to-scale
Table of Contents
List of Tables……………………………………………………………III
List of Figures……………………………………………………………V
Chapter 1 Introduction…………………………………………………1
1.1 Motivation…………………………………………………1
1.2 Objective……………………………………………………5
1.3 Scope and Limitation……………………………………6
1.4 Research Framework………………………………………8
Chapter 2 Background Theory and Literature Review………………9
2.1 The Internet Industry……………………………………9
2.2 Traditional Security Valuation and Analysis……20
2.3 Key Factors of A Successful Internet Company…28
2.4 Investment Themes In New Economy Era……………33
Chapter 3 Methodology…………………………………………………48
3.1 Internet-related Valuation Methodologies…………48
3.2 The Selected Approach…………………………………52
3.3 Conceptual Structure…………………………………59
Chapter 4 Empirical Study……………………………………………61
4.1 Sample Selection and Description……………………61
4.2 The Regression Analysis………………………………65
4.3 Interpretation of the Findings………………………78
4.4 Testing………………………………………………………79
Chapter 5 Conclusion and Suggestions………………………………85
5.1 Conclusion………………………………………………85
5.2 Implications for Internet Investors………………87
5.3Suggested Further Studies………………………………89
Appendix A Regression Analysis Using Untreated Data……………91
Bibliography………………………………………………………………99
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