臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

長期看護保險在台灣為一新興的保險商品，本文使用以Contingent Valuation Method（CVM）所設計的問卷來估計消費者對此一商品的願付價格，並探討影響願付價格的重要因素。本文也設計出一雙元的估計方式，並利用Chow-test來檢定 CVM 的可靠性及穩定性。
我們發現年齡及所得對於長期看護保險需求有顯著的正向影響。實證結果也顯示反向選擇的發生，以及父母使用遺產來誘使子女提供長期看護的可能性。在長期看護需求快速增加的情況下，若市場機能無法發揮，我們建議全民健保在附加保險及根據個人風險調整保費的方式下納入長期看護給付。此外，我們設計的檢定並無法拒絕 CVM 的可靠性及穩定性。

Given very limited size of the current private long-term care (LTC) insurance market, it is difficult to predict the consumers'' response to the new insurance product.By applying the contingent valuation method to investigate the individual''s willingness to pay for LTC insurance, our study has expanded the scope of studying new insurance product literature.
Using data collected from the 1998 and 1999 surveys on "Health and Insurance",we estimate the model of the willingness to pay (WTP) for LTC insurance to test the hypothesis of adverse selection, moral hazard, and bequest motives.
Our results indicate that the classical problem of adverse selection may exists, which may limit the size of private LTC insurance market.Our results also suggest a plausible picture of the exchange bequest motive. Nonetheless, as population aging and less children for the future generation in Taiwan,
the negative relationship between the presence of children and the WTP for LTC insurance implies the demand for LTC insurance will increase. Based on the current findings, the government interference in the LTC insurance market is in order.
In addition to single equation estimations for each of 1998 and 1999 samples, we provide evidence on the reliability of the CV method based on the results of a bivariate estimation;a "Chow test" also shows that the effects of the important factors are stable over time.

1. Introduction..........................................4
2. Literature review.....................................7
3. Conceptual framework of the WTP for LTC insurance....10
4. Survey design and data...............................16
4.1 The CV method....................................16
4.2 Variations in elicitation methods................17
4.3 DAta.............................................19
5. Empirical specification..............................19
5.1 Dependent variable...............................19
5.2 Explanatory variables............................21
5.3 Estimation method................................26
6. Empirical result.....................................30
6.1 Single-period estimation.........................30
6.2 Bivariate analysis (Testing reliability).........36
6.3 The "Chow test" (Testing stability)..............37
7. Conclusions and implications.........................38
Appendix A..............................................41
Appendix B..............................................42
Reference...............................................44

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