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研究生:陳孟誼
研究生(外文):Mang-Yi Chen
論文名稱:台灣發電系統整體資源規劃
論文名稱(外文):Integrated Resource Planning of Taiwan Power Generation System
指導教授:楊宏澤楊宏澤引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hong-Tzer Yang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中原大學
系所名稱:電機工程研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:電資工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2001
畢業學年度:89
語文別:中文
論文頁數:200
中文關鍵詞:成本分析動態規劃法可靠度蒙第卡羅法運轉模擬
外文關鍵詞:Cost AnalysisProduction SimulationReliabilityDynamic ProgrammingMonte-Carlo Simulation
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  • 被引用被引用:3
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追求高可靠度的電力供應係電力公司長期努力的目標。電業開放民營化與自由化係政府既定的政策目標。未來的發電業市場除原台電公司機組外,必將開放更多民營機組進入市場營運,因此,除了維持穩定可靠度外,成本的考量亦隨民營化後成為重要參考之依據。然而,電力市場具有公用事業特性,影響國防、民生與各級工業,相當廣泛而深遠。站在整體國家資源分配的立場,過多電力投資必將造成無謂的浪費。因此,藉由整體電力資源調派的角度,進行未來電源供給投資與運轉策略的規劃,乃有其急迫與需要性。
本文乃針對上述背景,建構一系列整體電力資源規劃分析模式,文中首先收集燃料成本預測走勢、二氧化碳減量成本估測值、缺電成本及發電機組之特性資料,繼而研究發電業市場結構及其運作情形。在本論文中也探討需求面管理對系統可靠度及備用容量訂定標準之影響。
根據上述所蒐集之資料,本文構建之系統最佳整體電力資源規劃模型,主要包含機率運轉模擬方塊平移法和動態規劃法模型。藉由所建構完成之規劃模型,對未來核四機組加入與否等各種情境,在系統中、長期發電系統規劃中予以分析。本文最後藉由動態規劃法與蒙第卡羅羅模擬法分別獲得最適供電可靠度暨合理備用容量率,其結果將於本論文中加以分析探討。
Pursuing high reliability of power supply is the objective of power utilities. Privatization and deregulation of the power industry are the definite goal of the government. In the future power market, in addition to the original Taipower generating units, the government will let more private generators enter the power market. Besides keeping high reliability, cost evaluation will become an important factor as the power market opened. However, power market has the characteristics of public utilities, which have extensive impact on national security, people’s life, and various industries. From the global view of a nation’s resource distribution, surplus power investment will cause waste of resource. Therefore, following power industry liberalization, it is urgent and necessary through integrated power resource planning to schedule both power supply and demand side management.
To deal with the above conditions, the thesis aims at building a series of optimal integrated power resource planning models. Collected first are the data for predictions of the fuel-cost trends, assessment of carbon-dioxide reduction and power interruption costs, as well as characteristics of generating units. Investigated are the structures of the power generation market and its operations. Impacts of the demand side management on the system reliability and reserve capacity rate standards are also studied in the thesis.
According to the data collected, the developed optimal integrated power resource planning models mainly contains the black-shift method based probabilistic production simulation and the dynamic programming model. By using the planning models developed, the mid- to long-term power generation plans are analyzed from different scenarios with or without new nuclear units installed in the future. Finally, the most adequate system expansion plan and reasonable rate of capacity reserve are obtained through dynamic programming structure as well as Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. The results are presented and discussed in the thesis.
目 錄
中文摘要.............................................Ⅰ
英文摘要.............................................Ⅱ
目錄.................................................Ⅲ
圖目錄...............................................Ⅵ
表目錄...............................................Ⅷ
第一章緒論
1-1 研究背景........................................1-1
1-2 文獻回顧........................................1-3
1-3 研究目的........................................1-5
1-4 論文結構........................................1-6
第二章成本考量模式
2-1 簡介............................................2-1
2-2 成本模式與數學式考量............................2-2
2-3 運轉成本之評估..................................2-5
2-3.1 國內外主要能源之現況........................2-5
2-3.2 國際燃料價格預測............................2-9
2-3.3 核火力電廠單機內部成本......................2-13
2-3.4 均化量計算..................................2-16
2-4 缺電成本之考量..................................2-18
2-4.1 缺電成本之種類..............................2-18
2-4.2 缺電成本分析方法............................2-23
2-4.3 各國缺電情形比較............................2-29
2-5本章結論.........................................2-34
第三章 可靠度之分析與評估
3-1 簡介............................................3-1
3-2 市場結構與運作關係..............................3-1
3-2.1 單一綜合電業模式............................3-1
3-2.2 發電業開放模式..............................3-2
3-3成本與利益之平衡.................................3-7
3-4可靠度標準模式...................................3-8
3-4.1備用容量率之計算標準.........................3-8
3-4.2缺電機率與缺電量之計算評估...................3-11
3-5本章結論.........................................3-18
第四章 需求面管理
4-1簡介.............................................4-1
4-2需求面管理策略...................................4-1
4-3台電現行負載管理措施與用戶用電特性...............4-4
4-3.1現行措施介紹.................................4-4
4-3.2各負載管理措施參與用戶之用電特性.............4-8
4-3.3現行實施績效.................................4-12
4-3.4未來需量管理措施之預估.......................4-15
4-4國外相關電業公司負載管理措施比較.................4-16
4-5對系統合理可靠度之影響...........................4-25
4-6本章結論.........................................4-26
第五章 系統運轉模擬模型與資料引用
5-1簡介.............................................5-1
5-2系統運轉模擬模式.................................5-3
5-2.1尖峰削去法...................................5-3
5-2.2方塊平移法...................................5-5
5-2.3發電機組二氧化碳排放模式.....................5-10
5-3基準年發電系統...................................5-13
5-4長期負載預測與電源開發方案.......................5-20
5-4.1長期負載預測.................................5-20
5-4.2台電電源開發方案.............................5-22
5-5本章結論.........................................5-25
第六章 運轉模擬系統之案例研究
6-1簡介.............................................6-1
6-2實際系統缺電機率計算之案例考量...................6-1
6-3模擬結果比較.....................................6-8
6-3.1引用台電公司燃料成本預測數值模擬結果.........6-8
6-3.2引用台經院燃料成本預測數值模擬結果...........6-21
6-3.3負載管理措施實施與否模擬結果比較.............6-30
6-3本章結論.........................................6-31
第七章 系統最佳備用容量率評估
7-1簡介.............................................7-1
7-2備用容量與機組特性之關係.........................7-1
7-3最佳即時備載容量之評估模式.......................7-2
7-4最佳即時備載容量之案例研究.......................7-6
7-5本章結論.........................................7-12
第八章 動態規劃法之模擬運算
8-1簡介.............................................8-1
8-2動態規劃法決策模式...............................8-2
8-3系統模擬與方案比較...............................8-7
8-4本章結論.........................................8-19
第九章 結論與未來研究方向
9-1 結論............................................9-1
9-2 未來研究方向....................................9-2
參考文獻.............................................A-1
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