臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

衡量國家綜合國力的評估方法有許多方式，包括指標法、層級分析法、德菲法等，這些評估方法中，有以定性來描述，亦有以量化之數學模式來衡量，各有不同的觀點、解釋能力及利弊。
綜合國力具有「多投入多產出」與「多屬性且含有不完全訊息」的問題特性。本研究為解決衡量多投入多產出之效率問題及多元評估準則與不完全訊息之特性，運用紮根理論，透過文獻探討與專家訪談方式探討評估綜合國力之構面，並提出兩階段之主要國家綜合國力評選程序：(1)衡量多投入多產出之效率：應用資料包絡分析法來衡量不同國家之間綜合國力的相對效率，篩選綜合國力具有相對效率之國家，作為下階段評估之基礎。(2)評估不完全訊息之準則：應用模糊多屬性決策法來處理綜合國力無法量化、不完全訊息、模糊概念的問題，如政治、經濟、科技、軍事等評估準則，進行美國、英國、法國、日本、中共及俄羅斯等六國家間的評選。最後分析比較上述六國綜合國力之差異。
本研究主要貢獻為：
1.運用紮根理論，以文獻探討及專家訪談方式，探討綜合國力評估之構面以及各構面形成之概念。
2.經由文獻分析及調查專家意見，本研究認為評估一國之綜合國力為人力資源、自然資源、科技實力、國內經濟實力、企業管理、國際化程度、政府效率、基礎建設、國防力量等九大因素。
3.本研究引入資料包絡分析及模糊多屬性決策的分析工具，比較出六個主要國家的綜合國力排序，建構一新而簡單的綜合國力評估之模式。

There are many methods, including Index Method, Analytic Hierarchy Process and Delphi Method（FMADM）etc, for evaluating a national Comprehensive National Power（CNP）. Some methods describe with qualitative modes, the others quantify with mathematical modes. Among those evaluating methods, there are different viewpoint, explanation, advantages and disadvantages.
In the evaluation of CNP, we need to consider its property of multi-input and multi-output and multiple attribute involving incomplete messages. The purpose of this study is to solve the difficulties of the evaluating multi-input and multi-output and multiple attribute involving incomplete messages. Hence, in this research ,the factors for evaluating CNP are selected in accordance with the related reference and expert’s opinion on the basis of grounded theory, and the evaluation procedures for the CNP system in two stages should be suggested as follows：（1）we should apply Data Envelopment Analysis（DEA）to obtain relative efficiency among different national CPN, and sift more relative efficiency ones out..（2）we should apply Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making（FMADM）to solve such problems as incapable of quantification, incomplete messages, vague conception, for example, politics, economy, science and technology, military, and so on.
The main contribution of this research states as below：
（1）By means of consulting literatures and expert interviews on the basis of grounded theory, measuring criterion of evaluating CNP and conception of forming those criterion.
（2）This research integrates related theories, considering that evaluating factors of a national CNP system should be human resources, natural resources, science and technology, domestic economy, business management, internationalization, government, infrastructure, defense capability.
（3）This research compare six main national CNP ordering, creating a new and simple mode measuring national CNP by using DEA and FMADM methods

頁次
第一章 緒 論……………………………………………..1
1.1 研究背景………………………………………………….1
1.2 研究動機與目的………………………………………….2
1.3 研究方法與流程………………………………………….3
1.4 研究範圍與限制………………………………………….5
1.5 論文架構………………………………………………….6
第二章 文獻探討…………………………………………….7
第一部分：綜合國力文獻探討
2.1 綜合國力概念…………………………………………….7
2.2 綜合國力評估計算方法………….………………………8
2.3 蘭德公司-「在後工業時代評估國力報告」………….13
2.3.1傳統評估方法之缺點…………………………………..13
2.3.2以兩構面及三階段描述國力…………………………..14
2.3.3各階段的內容涵義……………………………………..16
2.4 國際競爭力………………………………………………19
2.5 綜合國力的構成要素……………………………………24
第二部分：研究工具文獻探討
2.6資料包絡分析法……………………………………………28
2.6.1資料包絡分析法之基本原理…………………………..28
2.6.2 DEA之特性與限制……………………………………..31
2.7模糊多屬性決策法………………………..………………32
2.7.1模糊集及模糊數運算…………………………………..33
2.7.2模糊數排序……………………………………………..35
2.7.3 Lee-Li排序法………………………………………….39
2.7.4變異係數指標法………………………………………..41
2.8小結…………………………………………………………42
第三章 研究設計與方法…………………………………45
3.1綜合國力評估模式…………………………………………45
3.2研究設計……………………………………………………46
3.2.1綜合國力評估準則篩選………………………………..47
3.2.2研究對象………………………………………………..49
3.2.3選擇投入產出項目及資料來源………………………..49
3.2.4相關程度檢驗…………………………………………..51
3.2.5 DEA模式之選擇………………………………………..52
3.2.6評估模式架構及實施步驟……………………………..53
第四章實證分析……………………………………………58
4.1 DEA觀念模式……………………………………………..58
4.2 模式之運用與結果……………………………………….60
4.3 綜合國力的評估層級結構模式………………………….61
4.4 討論分析………………………………………………….64
第五章 結論與建議………………………………………65
5.1 結論……………………………………………………….65
5.2 後續研究建議…………………………………………….66
參考文獻……………………………………………………….67
作者簡介……………………………………………………….71

[1]林惠玲、陳正倉編著，“應用統計學”，華泰書局，民88，頁86。
[2]王涌芬、陳沙、石小玉等，“世界主要國家綜合國力比較研究”，湖南出版社，1996，頁169、171-179。
[3]任海平、運平、王景濤編著，“各國綜合國力排行榜”，中國經濟出版社，1998，頁19-20。
[4]黃碩風著，“綜合國力新論”，中國社會科學出版社，1999，頁73-75。
[5]陳灌文著，“在國際舞台上”，四川人民出版社，1985，頁46。
[6]日本經濟企劃廳綜合計畫，“日本的綜合國力”，1987，頁15。
[7]袁建中、劉俊儀，「衡量國家技術能力之研究－以兩岸技術能力比較為例」，科技管理學刊第二卷第一期，民86，頁57-73。
[8]萊斯特.梭羅著，齊思賢譯，“知識經濟時代”，時報文化出版企業股份有限公司，2000。
[9]R. D. Banker,A. Charnes and W. W. Cooper “Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis”, Management Science, Vol.30, No.9, 1984, pp.1078-1382.
[10]R. Bellman and L. A. Zadeh,“Decision making in a fuzzy environment”, Management Science, Vol 17B, No.4, 1970, pp.141-164.
[11]B.Golany & Y. Roll,“An Application Procedure of DEA”, OMEGA, Vol.17, No.3, 1989, pp.240.
[12]A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper, and E. Rhodes,“Measuring the Efficiency of Decsion Making Unit”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.2, No.6, 1978, pp.429-444.
[13]A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper, L. M. Seiford, and J. Stutz, “Invariant Multiplicative Efficiency and Piecewise Cobb-Douglas Envelopment”,Operations Research Letters, Vol.2, No.3, 1983, pp.101-103.
[14]C. H. Cheng,“A new approach for fuzzy numbers by distance method”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol 95, 1998, pp.307-317.
[15]D. L. Mon, C. H. Cheng and J. C. Lin,“Evaluating weapon system using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on entropy weight”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol.62, 1994, pp.127-134.
[16]Dubois D. and H. Prade,“Fuzzy Sets and Systems：Theory and Applications”, Academic Press, New York, 1980.
[17]E. S. Lee and R. L. Li,“Commparision of fuzzy numbers based on the probability measure of fuzzy events”, Computer and Mathematics with Applications, Vol. 15, 1988,pp.887-896.
[18]F. Clifford German,“A Tentative Evaluation of World Power,”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.4, 1960, pp.138-144
[19]Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne, Melissa McPherson,“Measuring National Power in the Postindustrial,Age”,RAND.Publication,http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1110/index.html,2000.
[20]The World Factbook 2000, Central Intelligence Agency Publication,http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html, 2000.
[21]C. L. Hwang and K. Yoon“Multiple Attribute Decision Making-Method and Applications”, A State-of-Art Survey, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1981.
[22]International Management Development, The World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2000.
[23]Kal J. Holsti,“International Politics: A Framework for Analysis”, Englewood Cliffs: Pretice-Hall, 1983, pp.164.
[24]Michael Pillsbury,“China Debates the Future Security Environment”, National Defense University Press Washington, DC, 2000, pp.100-101
[25]Raymond Aron, “Peace and War－International Relations Theory”, 1996, pp.47.
[26]Ray S. Cline,“World Power Assessment”, Westview Press, Inc, 1975.
[27]R. R. Yager,“On a general class of fuzzy connectives”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol 4, 1980, pp.235-242.
[28]T. L. Saaty, “The Analytic Hierarchy Process”, McGrawHill, New York, 1980.
[29]S.-J. Chen andC.-L. Hwang“Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods and applications”, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical System, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1992.
[30]S. Murakami, S.Maeda and S. Imamura,“Fuzzy decision analysis on the development of centralized regional energy control system”, IFAC Symposium on Fuzzy Information, Knowledge Representation Decision Analysis, 1983, pp.363-368.
[31]The International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1999．2000, Oxford University Press, 2000.
[32]Tong Fuquan and Liu Yichang,“Shijie quanfangwei jingji zhan”, 1987, pp.234.
[33]T.-S. Liou and M..-J.J. Wang,“Ranking fuzzy numbers with integral value”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol 50, 1992, pp.247-255.
[34]Wilhelm Fucks,“Formeln zur Macht：Prognosen uber Volker”,Wirtschaft Potentiale（Verlags-ANSTALT）, 1965.
[35]World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, 2000.
[36]Zadeh, L. A.,“Fuzzy Set”, Information and control, Vol.8, 1965, pp.338-353.
[37]Zimmermann, H. J.,“Fuzzy Sets, Decision making, and Expert system”, Kluwer, Boston, 1987.
[38]John Caves,“Balancing U.S. Power in the 21th Century”National Defense University National War College,NWC Course 5601,2000.