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研究生:林明彥
研究生(外文):Ming-Yen Lin
論文名稱:影響投資決策之承諾變化研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Escalating Commitment of Investment Decision
指導教授:謝安田謝安田引用關係
指導教授(外文):An-Tien Hsieh
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:國際企業管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2001
畢業學年度:89
語文別:中文
論文頁數:160
中文關鍵詞:投資決策承諾上升
外文關鍵詞:investment decisionescalating commitment
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前人研究因負回饋導致承諾變化的非理性決策行為,忽略了決策者具有相同決策經驗因素,並且對於已經証實的情境變數未能通盤考量,致使此一知識體系發生扞格與衝突。本研究以證券市場投資人為研究對象,以準實驗法操弄回饋、任務風險、沈入成本及國際股市,併同受測者的實際決策經驗,建構出承諾變化之決策模式。為能更精確了解承諾變化,並釐清前人研究發生承諾上升或下降情形之原因,究竟是決策經驗、情境因素所造成抑或對承諾變化定義之不同,因此將承諾變化分成堅持承諾及增加承諾進行測試。
對960位具有股票投資經驗的投資人蒐集資料,問卷採多因子實驗設計(2×2×2×2×2),發現當因變項為堅持承諾確實會發生承諾上升的現象,而增加承諾時承諾上升並不一定會發生,尤其考量國際股市之干擾效果時最為明顯。決策經驗在模式中扮演相當重要的角色,並對賭徒行為提出合理解釋。對股票投資而言,本研究的結果指出過去賺錢的投資人較容易陷入承諾上升的因境中,而虧損的投資人卻有可能產生孤擲一注的傾向,因此從事股票投資的投資人,本研究建議保守策略是較佳的選擇,意即古諺所云:「小心駛得萬年船」。

Previous research works on behavior of decision makers taking irrational actions of altering commitment due to the negative return have neglected the impact of the ele-ments of similar experiences the decision makers might have had before. Furthermore, in actual decision making action, the decision maker may have executed several or sev-eral tens of the similar alternatives (like stock investment decisions). Then it is still questionable to use the previous decision and outcome to guide the current decision making. In other words if the current decision making trend is influenced by the previ-ous similar experiences that were not cleared in the past studies.
This study analyzed the result of actual operation of stock market investors. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to study and provide knowledge of the impact of pre-vious several similar decision experiences to the current decision making model so that to clear the past study’s mystery of getting conflicting commitment change for a given decision alternative. Any rational decision maker has a countless experiences. Natu-rally these experiences would influence his decision making action. Then a question is how does it influence the decision making. All of these questions are not clear. In this study it is hoped to enhance the knowledge in this field.
The data is composed of stock investors and is collected by 960 questionnaires. The questionnaires use multiple factors design(2×2×2×2×2) and the results indicate experience is the important factor of decision. The investors with win experience are cling to escalating commitment. On the contrary, the others are cling to invest surplus resource. International stock markets moderate the relationship between situation and commitment. The contribution of this paper has two aspects .The theoretical: the paper can answer the research problem. The practical: this paper can offer insights into deci-sion making as to how to enhance rational decisions of individual.

中文摘要 .....................iii
英文摘要 .....................iv
誌謝辭  .....................vi
內容目錄 .....................vii
表目錄  .....................x
圖目錄  .....................xii
第一章  緒論...................1
  第一節  研究背景...............1
  第二節  研究問題、目的及重要性........5
  第三節  研究架構、研究範圍與限制.......10
第二章  文獻回顧.................12
  第一節  自我辯解理論.............12
  第二節  預期理論...............16
  第三節  決策兩難理論.............19
  第四節  代理理論...............22
  第五節  強化理論...............25
  第六節  決策承諾...............29
  第七節  承諾上升之理論架構..........31
第三章  研究假設.................34
  第一節  回饋與任務風險,回饋與沈入成本及回饋
       與決策經驗對於承諾變化之影響.....34
  第二節  回饋、任務風險與決策經驗,回饋、沈入
       成本與決策經驗,回饋、沈入成本與任務
       風險對於承諾變化之影響........41
  第三節  回饋、任務風險、沈入成本與決策經驗對
       於承諾變化之影響...........45
  第四節  國際股市對於決策情境和承諾變化間關係
       之影響................47
第四章  研究方法.................50
  第一節  研究對象及準實驗設計.........50
  第二節  研究樣本、資料蒐集及問卷結構.....52
  第三節  變數衡量...............55
  第四節  資料分析方法.............66
第五章  決策情境與承諾變化之分析.........67
  第一節  樣本之總體性描述...........67
  第二節  虛擬投資決策個案之真實性評估.....68
  第三節  決策情境操弄檢測...........69
第六章  決策經驗與情境和承諾變化之關係......73
  第一節  決策經驗與情境和承諾變化之變異數分析.73
  第二節  決策經驗與情境中兩個變數對於承諾變化
       之交互作用..............76
  第三節  決策經驗與情境中三個變數對於承諾變化
       之交互作用..............85
  第四節  決策經驗與情境中四個變數之交互作用..95
第七章  國際股市對於決策經驗與情境和承諾變化關係之
     影響...................103
  第一節  國際股市對於決策經驗與情境和堅持承諾關
       係之變異數分析............103
  第二節  國際股市與決策經驗與情境交互作用對於承
       諾變化之影響效果.........106
第八章  結論與建議................116
  第一節  結論.................116
  第二節  建議.................125
參考文獻 .....................132
附錄  研究問卷..................152
表目錄
表 5- 1研究樣本基本資料之分佈情形..........68
表 5- 2虛擬投資決策個案真實性評估..........69
表 5- 3堅持承諾之決策情境變項操弄檢測........71
表 5- 4增加承諾之決策情境變項操弄檢測........72
表 6- 1決策經驗與情境變項對於堅持承諾之變異數分析..74
表 6- 2決策經驗與情境變項對於增加承諾之變異數分析..76
表 6- 3回饋與任務風險對於堅持承諾之交互作用......78
表 6- 4回饋與沈入成本對於堅持承諾之交互作用......79
表 6- 5回饋與沈入成本對於增加承諾之交互作用......81
表 6- 6決策經驗與回饋對於堅持承諾之交互作用......82
表 6- 7決策經驗與回饋對於增加承諾之交互作用......84
表 6- 8回饋、任務風險與決策經驗對於堅持承諾之交互作用86
表 6- 9回饋、任務風險與決策經驗對於增加承諾之交互作用88
表 6- 10回饋、沈入成本與決策經驗對於堅持承諾之交互作用90
表 6- 11回饋、沈入成本與任務風險對於增加承諾之交互作用93
表 6- 12決策經驗、任務風險、沈入成本與回饋對於堅持承諾
之交互作用..................96
表 6- 13決策經驗、任務風險、沈入成本與回饋對於增加承諾
之交互作用..................100
表 7- 1國際股市對於決策經驗與情境變項和堅持承諾關係之
變異數分析..................104
表 7- 2國際股市對於決策經驗與情境變項和增加承諾關係之
變異數分析..................105
表 7- 3國際股市、任務風險與回饋對於堅持承諾之交互作用107
表 7- 4回饋、沈入成本與國際股市對於堅持承諾之交互作用110
表 7- 5國際股市、決策經驗與回饋對於堅持承諾之交互作用113
圖目錄
圖 1- 1研究架構...................11
圖 2- 1理論架構...................33
圖 6- 1回饋與任務風險對於堅持承諾之交互作用.....78
圖 6- 2回饋與沈入成本對於堅持承諾之交互作用.....80
圖 6- 3回饋與沈入成本對於增加承諾之交互作用.....81
圖 6- 4回饋與決策經驗對於堅持承諾之交互作用.....83
圖 6- 5回饋與決策經驗對於增加承諾之交互作用.....84
圖 6- 6回饋、任務風險與決策經驗對於堅持承諾之交互作用87
圖 6- 7回饋、任務風險與決策經驗對於增加承諾之交互作用89
圖 6- 8回饋、沈入成本與決策經驗對於堅持承諾之交互作用91
圖 6- 9回饋、沈入成本與任務風險對於增加承諾之交互作用94
圖 6- 10決策經驗、任務風險、沈入成本與回饋對於堅持承諾
之交互作用..................97
圖 6- 11決策經驗、任務風險、沈入成本與回饋對於增加承諾
之交互作用..................99
圖 6- 12堅持承諾及增加承諾十六種處理水準之比較....102
圖 7- 1國際股市對於回饋、任務風險與堅持承諾關係之干擾
效果.....................108
圖 7- 2國際股市對於回饋、沈入成本與堅持承諾關係之干擾
效果.....................111
圖 7- 3國際股市對於回饋、決策經驗與堅持承諾關係之干擾
效果.....................114

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中文部分
伍忠賢(1999),實用投資學,台北:華泰書局,62-63。

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