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研究生:倪仁禧
論文名稱:釘住匯率的抉擇-以人民幣釘住美元為例
指導教授:胡春田胡春田引用關係
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2001
畢業學年度:89
語文別:中文
論文頁數:102
中文關鍵詞:釘住匯率固定匯率浮動匯率
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1997年的亞洲融風暴重創亞洲各國的金融及經濟,連帶影響政治及社會安定。然而在亞洲各國陷入金融風暴時,中國大陸仍然維持原來的經濟擴張。探究其原因,人民幣採釘住美元匯率及資本管制兩項因素,可能是中國大陸能在金融風暴中較為安定的措施。
為探討亞洲各國貨幣大幅貶值下,大陸選擇釘住美元匯率有何利益?本文分別以一大國二小國模型及二大國二小國模型來說明。模型中我們設定二小國資本移動程度不一,採用的匯率制度不同,以衡量來自不同干擾時,採用不同匯率制度之差異比較。
本文發現(1)資本移動程度差異對釘住匯率小國體系影響效果不大。來自大國或小國的貨幣數量及實質需求變動干擾時,產出並不受資本移動程度影響。(2)在一大國二小國模型中,如果干擾來自大國貨幣數量或實質需求時,不管大國的工資指數化程度如何,釘住大國貨幣的小國其產出變異將大於採取浮動匯率的另一小國。當干擾來自大國的實質面及貨幣面,就產出變異而言,釘住匯率較浮動匯率大。(3)當干擾來自小國,釘住匯率制度的國內實質或貨幣面干擾對國內實質產出變異較其他小國大;採行浮動匯率的國內貨幣面干擾對國內的實質產出變異較大,但實質需求干擾,對國內及其他小國的產出變異差異並不明顯。(4)二大國二小國模型中,若干擾來源是來自大國,則採行釘住匯率國家受被釘住國的貨幣面及實質面需求干擾影響較大,受另一大國干擾較小。(5)當干擾來自大國時,被釘住國或其他大國的實質需求變動,影響釘住匯率小國的實質產出變異較大,浮動匯率小國的實質產出變異較小。釘住匯率制度比浮動匯率帶來更大的產出變異。
小國採取釘住匯率制度時,選擇釘住那一國家匯率的價值福利水準較高,應視經濟結構、干擾來源、性質而定。
第一章緒論………………………………………………… 1
第二章文獻回顧……………………………………………7
第一節固定匯率與浮動匯率………………………………7
第二節貨幣危機與亞洲金融風暴…………………………10
第三節釘住匯率與貨幣聯盟………………………………15
第三章一大國二小國模型…………………………………19
第一節大國模型……………………………………………20
第二節二小國模型…………………………………………23
第三節模型均衡解…………………………………………28
第四節大國的干擾效果……………………………………31
第五節小國的干擾效果……………………………………39
第六節福利效果……………………………………………45
第四章二大國二小國模型…………………………………50
第一節二大國模型…………………………………………51
第二節二大國模型均衡解…………………………………54
第三節二大國的干擾效果…………………………………57
第四節二小國模型…………………………………………61
第五節模型均衡解…………………………………………63
第六節干擾效果……………………………………………66
第七節福利效果……………………………………………84
第五章結論及未來發展方向………………………………89
附錄 ……..…..………………………………………………91
附表 ……..……………………………………………………96
參考文獻 ..……………………………………………………97
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