臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文旨在預測尖峰負載與離峰負載，並利用預測的尖峰負載與離峰負載，描繪出完整二十四小時日負載曲線，提早預知次日至一星期的系統負載，可作為在機組排程、負載管理、經濟調度、水力火力機組協調及電力系統安全控制等方面，提供極重要的參考數據。所以負載預測的準確性，直接影響到系統發電成本及運轉可靠度與安全性。本論文針對電力系統運轉調度時所面臨的短期負載預測問題，以工作日及非工作日為區分，提出結合灰色系統理論與模糊推論之預測方法。
在工作日預測作法：首先利用多重迴歸分析對尖峰負載與離峰負載進行初步預測，接著加入灰色GM(0,2)模型降低預測之誤差，同時為了更準確預測尖峰負載與離峰負載，利用模糊推論技術修正負載偏差量，以達到最準確的尖峰負載與離峰負載預測。
在非工作日預測作法：利用GM(1,1)只要四筆以上資料即可建模的優點，對非工作日的尖峰負載與離峰負載進行初步預測。然後利用模糊推論進行與實際尖峰負載與離峰負載值差距的修正，以達到最準確的尖峰負載與離峰負載預測。
為了驗証本論文所提出方法之優越性，使用台電公司的實際資料進行預測，並且與傳統迴歸分析、GM(1,1)、模糊推論等方法作比較，結果証明本論文所提方法在工作日及非工作日的尖載、低載與二十四小時負載預測準確性都較其它預測方法準確。

摘要i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目次 iv
表目次vii
圖目次 x
第一章緒論1
1.1研究動機與目的1
1.2文獻回顧 2
1.3論文內容概述4
第二章 迴歸分析理論5
2.1兩變數間之關係5
2.1.1函數關係5
2.1.2統計關係5
2.2迴歸模型及其運用7
2.2.1獨立變數的選定8
2.2.2迴歸方程式的函數型式8
2.3迴歸分析之數學模型9
2.3.1簡單線型迴歸模型9
2.3.2最小平方法9
2.3.3多重迴歸模型10
2.3.4迴歸模型之矩陣表示式10
2.3.5迴歸參數之估計12
第三章 灰色系統基本理論及運算13
3.1前言..13
3.2灰色生成14
3.2.1累加生成14
3.2.2累減生成15
3.3灰色建模17
3.4灰色預測17
3.5灰色微分方程式17
3.5.1GM(1,N)模型18
3.5.2GM(1,1)模型19
3.5.3後驗差檢驗法21
3.5.4GM(0,N)模型23
第四章 模糊理論25
4.1簡介..25
4.2模糊集合的基本概念26
4.2.1模糊集合的定義26
4.2.2歸屬函數28
4.3模糊集合的基本運算31
4.4模糊集合關係33
4.5模糊推論34
4.6解模糊化36
4.7模糊理論之推論技術流程40
第五章 實際系統之預測方法建立與結果比較42
5.1前言..42
5.2本論文採用的預測方法42
5.2.1預測資料收集42
5.2.2尖載與低載預測43
5.2.324小時之負載預測43
5.3工作日預測方法建立44
5.3.1輸入資料44
5.3.2多重迴歸分析法45
5.3.3GM(0,2)方法49
5.3.4結合模糊推論技術於工作日預測51
5.3.5實例測試與分析55
5.4非工作日預測方法建立77
5.4.1輸入資料77
5.4.2GM(1,1)方法78
5.4.3結合模糊推論技術於非工作日預測78
5.4.4實例測試與分析80
5.5本章結論101
第六章 結論及未來研究方向102
6.1結論..102
6.2未來研究方向103
參考文獻104
作者簡介108

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