臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

美國總統大選一向為眾所矚目的焦點，亦是美國政壇上四年一次最重要的資源分配關鍵點。過去的美國總統選舉，候選人靠著大量的文宣以及政黨的組織動員，便可能入主白宮。但是隨著時代的改變，日新月異的科技，舊式的選舉方式已無法全面的掌握選情。尤其像美國總統大選這樣的全國性大選，若無民調指引，候選人就像於茫茫大海中航行，根本無法行動。美國大選中的民意調查早已不單僅是集中焦點於候選人間的支持度。根據民意調查的資料，候選人可掌握社會的脈動及主流價值；找出支持者、反對者，探測利益團體的意向，以及運用什麼方式來與選民接觸，方能擬定妥切的策略來打選戰。
柯林頓歷經兩年的執政之後，雖然經濟狀況漸入佳境，外交也屢屢建功，但何以一九九四年的國會期中選舉，全美選民用選票表達對政府的不滿，將共和黨捧上國會多數黨的位置。但在一九九五至九六年間柯林頓推動中產階級減稅、提出平衡預算案、推行一連串相關兒童、青少年及家庭的政策，企圖改變選民對他的不滿，成功的在一九九六年美國總統大選打了一場勝仗。研究者撰寫本論文的目的就是，藉研究民意調查對柯林頓在選戰中議題設定及策略形成的影響，能提供未來台灣選舉時，候選人及其幕僚，針對選舉策略方面對民調的使用有進一步的概念。關於研究架構的部份，第一章為緒論，當中包括研究者的動機、目的，以及此論文研究的方法、架構、範圍與限制。第二章則是研究民意調查與美國總統大選的關係，及總統大選中常運用的調查方式。第三章則是分析九六年總統大選前，柯林頓政府所遇到的問題，以及柯林頓如何在與共和黨候選人的選戰中脫穎而出，再度入主白宮的過程。第四章則針對柯林頓在九六年大選過程中，民意調查如何影響其議題的設定與推動的重要政策。並於第五章做一結論。

American presidential election is always an important focus catching the eyes from the entire world and also the key point to re-arrange the political recourse every four years in America. In past American presidential election, the candidates could win the campaign by great deal of advertising and the working of party organization. However, with the changing of the time and the progress of technology, old campaign style cannot handle modern elections. Especially in a campaign of American President Election, candidate wouldn’t know how to campaign without the help of public opinion polls. Public opinion polls in America not only focus on the horse racing of the candidates but help them to see the main stream of the society, find the supporter and opposites, and so on.
In 1994 mid-election, Democrats’ losing meant that people weren’t satisfied with the performance of Bill Clinton. But During 1995~1996, Bill Clinton pushed lots of policies, including Middle-Class Bill of Rights, Balance of Budget, and a series of policies about children, teenagers, and family, to save his political career and to win the presidential election in 1996.The main purpose of the thesis is to offer candidates in Taiwan a direction to use campaign polls through discussing Bill Clinton’s reelection process. There are five chapters: chapter one is an introduction; chapter two analyzes the relationship between public opinion poll and American presidential elections and what kinds of polls have been used in elections; chapter three focuses on the process of American presidential election in 1996; chapter four describes how Bill Clinton used public opinion polls to set agendas, issues, and policies; chapter five is the conclusion.

民意調查與美國大選：
以一九九六年美國總統大選柯林頓對民調的使用為例
目 錄
第一章緒論…………………………………………………….1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………….….1
第二節 研究方法與架構………………………………………..4
第三節 研究範圍與限制………………………………………..5
第二章 民意調查與選舉…………………………………………7
第一節 近代選戰利器─民意調查…………………..………….7
壹 概說民意…………………………………………….7
貳 民意調查之源起………………………………………….....9
參 民意調查之重要性……………………………………......11
第二節 民意調查與美國選舉的淵源與發展………………14
壹 草根投票時期…………………………………………......14
貳 抽樣調查時代的來臨…………………………………......15
參 革命性的電話民調時代………………………………......19
第三節 工欲善其事必先利其器─選戰民調……………….….20
壹 基礎民調的全面性……………………………………......21
貳 趨勢民調的檢閱性……………………………………......23
參 焦點團體的引導性……………………………………......24
肆 審思意見調查的理想性………………………………......25
伍 追蹤民調的靈活性……………………………………......27
陸 挖票民調的破壞性……………………………………......28
第三章 一九九六年美國總統大選…………………………….33
第一節 投票行為與選戰焦點………………………………33
壹 影響選民的投票行為的因素…………………………......33
貳 一九八０年後美國總統大選選戰焦點………………......34
第二節 一九九四年柯林頓政府的危機………………………..37
壹 柯林頓初上任兩年之政績……………………………......37
貳 一九九四年底柯林頓政府的危機……………………......40
第三節 柯林頓的勝選之路…………………………………….43
壹 一九九六年總統大選初期……………………………......43
貳 一九九六年總統大選末期……………………………......48
參 一九九六年總統大選勝負關鍵………………………......53
第四章 民意調查─選戰的核心……………………………….59
第一節 民調與「積小勝為大勝」策略的形成………………..60
第二節 民調與「三角關係」觀念的合作……………………..64
壹 柯林頓與共和黨的減稅議題之戰……………………......64
貳 柯林頓與國會的預算之戰……………………………......66
第三節 民調與「美國價值」議題的推動……………………..69
壹 柯林頓的神經網路民調………………………………......69
貳 美國價值議題的重要性………………………………......71
參 美國價值議題的推動及效應…………………………......75
第四節 民調指引柯林頓的廣告運用…………………………..80
壹 電視廣告在選戰中的重要性…………………………......80
貳 購物中心的廣告測試…………………………………......81
參 柯林頓電視廣告的效果………………………………......83
第五章 結論…………………………………………………….85
參考書目………………………………………………………….91
圖…..次
圖3-1 柯林頓一九九三年至一九九四年之施政滿意度…..…39
圖3-2 柯林頓一九九六年之競選團隊表……………………..45

壹 中文部份
一、書籍
朱瑞淵、王昭正譯、Paul J. Lavrakas著‧電話調查方法（台北：弘智文化，民88）。
朱瑞淵、王昭正譯、Thomas W. Mangione著‧郵寄問卷調查（台北市：弘智文化，民88）。
杜陵‧民意測驗學（正中書局：民國五十七年）
李大維‧台灣與美國大選媒體民意調查之比較研究（台北市：新評會，民87）。
林文益譯、Brian McNair著。政治傳播學，台北市：風雲論壇，一九九七年七月。
倪達仁譯、奧斯丁‧倫尼（Austin Ranny）著‧政治學（台北：雙葉書廊，民87）。
張美惠譯、辛西雅‧克羅森（Cynthia Crossen）著‧真實的謊言：揭開民調與統計的黑盒子（台北：時報文化，民85）。
郭岱君譯註及導讀、詹姆士‧梭伯（James A. Thurber）＆坎迪斯‧納爾遜(Candice J. Nelson)主編‧選戰必勝方程式（台北：智庫文化，1999）
莊錫昌‧二十世紀美國文化，台北市：淑馨，民國八十五年。
歐素汝譯、David W. Stewart, Prem N. Shamdasani著‧焦點團體：理論與實務（台北市：弘智文化，民88）。
賴世培、丁庭宇、莫季雍‧民意調查（台北縣蘆洲市：空大，民89。
鍾起惠‧調查‧數字‧公關（台北：大村，民81）。
二、論文
陳秋旭‧「一九九二年美國總統大選柯林頓競選策略之研析：政治行銷之概念與實踐」，碩士論文，淡江大學美國研究所，中華民國八十七年一月。
韋博仁‧「美國總統大選電視競選廣告之運用與爭議」，碩士論文，淡江大學美國研究所，中華民國八十九年六月。
三、期刊
于明宜。「美國總統選舉中的減稅及平衡預算問題」，稅務旬刊第1624期，民國八十五年十一月十日。
四、報紙
「柯林頓振興經濟方案摘要」。中央日報，一九九三年二月十九日。版六。
「柯林頓簽署北美自貿協定」。中央日報，一九九三年十二月十日。版六。
「柯林頓競選財務也被拖下水」。聯合報，一九九四年八月二十一日。版九。
「柯林頓可能被控性騷擾」。聯合報，一九九四年五月五日。版九。
「柯林頓考慮『十月驚奇』行動」，聯合報，一九九四年九月九日。版九。
「柯林頓發表國情咨文 提七大挑戰」。自立早報，一九九六年一月二十五日。版八。
「共和黨編纂《完全攻擊柯林頓手冊》」。聯合報，一九九六年十月二日。版十。
「授權各州得拒非法移民讀公校」中國時報，一九九六年三月二十三日。版十九。
「柯林頓決鐵腕改革社福制度」。工商時報，一九九六年八月三日，版七。
「第二場辯論 柯林頓還是贏」。聯合報，一九九六年十月十八日。版十。
梁東屏。「杜爾的總統夢終究難圓」。中國時報，民國八十五年十一月七日，版二。
「白宮不當調閱逾四百人檔案」中國時報，民國八十五年六月二十七日，十版。
費浩偉。「從國會山莊進軍白宮 杜爾一路蹣跚」。中國時報，一九九六年十一月六日，版二。
「杜爾競選策略 引不起選民興趣」。中國時報，一九九六年十月三十一日。版十。
「柯林頓提教育計畫造勢」。青年日報，一九九六年八月二十九日。版七。
「柯林頓簽署梅根法案」。中國時報，一九九六五月十九日。版十。
李巧雲。「莫理斯 將柯林頓推向高峰最大功臣」。中國時報，一九九六年八月三十一日。版五。
「美參院通過布雷迪槍枝管制法案」。中央日報，一九九三年十一月二十六日。版六。
「討好中產階級 柯林頓打減稅牌」。經濟日報，民國八十三年十二月十七日。版六。
「美府會達成預算協議 僵局暫解」。中國時報，一九九六年一月八日。版十。
「預算談不攏 美部份聯邦機構在停擺」。中央日報，一九九五年十二月十七日。版九。
「美消費者信心續攀升 上週抵四年半來最高」。經濟日報，一九九四年十二月十六日。版六。
「香菸中尼古丁 美列為致癮藥物」。聯合報，一九九六年八月二十五日。版一。
「柯林頓擬宣佈尼古丁為上癮藥物」。中國時報，一九九六年八月二十三日。 版五。
貳 英文部份
I. Books:
Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections, Washington D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, 1999.
Asher, Herbert. Polling And The Public : What Every Citizen Should Know, 4th . Ed., Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, 1998.
Bailey, Michael A., Ronald A. Faucheux, Paul S. Herrnson, & Clyde Wilcox. Campaigns & Elections: Contemporary Case Studies, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, 2000.
Bennett, W. Lance. Public Opinion in American Politics, New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1980.
Cantril, Albert H. Polling On The Issues. Washington, D.C.: Seven Locks Press, 1984.
Cook, Timothy E. Governing With The News, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1998.
Crespi, Irving. The Public Opinion Process, Mahwah, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1997.
Drew, Elizabeth. Showobwn：The Surggle between the Gingrich Congress and the Clinton White House, New York：Simon and Schuster, 1996.
Erikson, Robert S., Norman R. Luttbeg, and Kent L. Tedin. American Public Opinion, 4th. Ed., New York: Macmillan, 1991.
Fallows, James. Breaking The News, New York: Vintage Books, 1997.
Folz, David H. Survey Research For Public Administration, Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, 1996.
Foyle, Douglas C. Counting the Public In, New York: Columbia University Press, 1999.
Glasser, Theodore L. & Charles T. Salmon. Public Opinion And The Communication Of Consent, New York: The Guilford Press, 1995.
Higginbotham , A. Leon Jr., Voting Hopes or Fears?, New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.
Hill, Kevin A. & John E. Hughes. Cyberpolitics: Citizen Activism in the Age of the Internet, New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1998.
Krueger, Richard A. Focus Groups, Second Ed., Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE Publications, 1994.
Lane, Robert E. & David O. Sears. Public Opinion, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1964.
Lavrakas, Paul J. & Michael W. Traugott, Election Polls, the News Media, and Democracy, New York: Seven Bridges Press, 2000.
Lee, Thomas B. & Kurt Glaser. The 1984 U.S. Election: Issues and Influences, Taipei: Tamkang University, 1984.
Luttbeg, Norman R. Public Opinion and Public Policy, Homewood, Illinois: The Dorsey Press, 1968.
Martin L., John. The Annals: Polling and the Democratic Consensus, Beverly Hills: SAGE Publications, 1984.
Merchant, Livingston. THE 1984 U. S. ELECTION: ISSUES AND INFLUENCES, Tamkang, University and Foundation for Foreign Affair of Chicago, 1984
Morgan, David L. The Focus Group Guidebook, Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE Publications, 1998.
Morris, Dick. Behind The Oval Office, Los Angeles: Renaissance Books, 1999.
Morris, Dick. VOTE.com, Los Angeles: Renaissance Books, 1999.
Polsby, Nelson W. & Aaron Wildavsky. Presidential Elections, 10th ed., New York: Seven Bridges Press, 2000.
Prysby, Charles & Carmine Scavo. Voting Behavior: The 1992 Election, Washington, D.C.: American Political Science Association, 1993.
Renshon, Stanley A.. High Hopes: The Clinton Presidency and the Politics of Ambition, New York: New York University Press, 1996
Rozell, Mark J. & Clyde Wilcox. God At The Grass Roots, 1996, New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1997.
Stephanopoulos, George. All Too Human: A Political Education, Little, Brown and Company, 1999.
Thurber, James A. & Candice J. Nelson. Campaigns and Elections: American Style, San Francisco: Westview Press, 1995.
Traugott, Michael W. & Paul J. Lavrakas. The Voter’s Guide To Election Polls, Chatham: Chatham House Publishers, 1996
Wayne, Stephen J. The Road to The White House 2000, New York: Bedford/St. Martin’s, 2000.
Witcover, Jules. No Way To Pick A President, New York: Farrar, Straus And Giroux, 1999.
Woodward, Bob. The Agenda: Inside The Clinton White House, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994.
II. Periodicals(Journals & Magazines)
Cook, Rhodes. “Debates Keep a Civil Tongue But Convert Few Voters,” Congressional Quarterly, October 12, 1996.
Duffy, Michael, Mark Thompson and Douglas Waller. “Is It Skill, or Is It Just Good Luck?” Time, October 31, 1994.
Jacobs, Lawrence R. & Robert Y. Shapiro. “The Nixon White House In Historical Perspective,” Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 59, spring. 1995.
Marin, Rick. “Blocking the Box,” NEWSWEEK, March 11, 1996.
Masci, David. “The Modified Crime Bill,” Congressional Quarterly, August 27, 1994.
Nelson, Michael. The Elections Of 1996, Washington D.C.: CQ Press, 1997.
“On Target,” Newsweek, November 18, 1996.
Ponessa, Jeanne. “House Panel Approves Measure To Prohibit Flag Burning,” Congressional Quarterly, June 10, 1995.
“President Clinton’s Veto Of Rescissions Bill,” Congressional Quarterly, July 10, 1995.
Rubin, Alissa J.. “Prospects for Major Overhaul Fade as Senate Goes Home,” Congressional Quarterly, August 27, 1994.
Rubin, Alissa J.. “Details of the Clinton Proposal,” Congressional Quarterly, June 17, 1995.
Saad, Lydia & Frank Newport. “Pendulum Swings Back Toward Clinton,” The Gallup Poll Monthly, No. 365, February, 1996.
Seideman, David. “Now, About That Contract,” Time, December 5, 1994.
III. Newspapers
“Aggressive Turn By Dole Appears to Be Backfiring, Poll Finds,” New York Times, October 22, 1996, A22.
Bennet, James. “Dole Campaign Says It Has Hardly Begun to Fight as Clinton Storms the Airwaves,” New York Times, September 11, 1996, B9.
Clymer, Adam. “SENATE PERSUADED BY DOLE TO SHELVE POISON GAS TREAATY,” New York Times, September 13, 1996, A1.
Nagourny, Adam and Elizabeth Kolbert. “Missteps Doomed Dole from the Start, “New York Times, November 8, 1996, A1.
“Poll Finds Most Give Clinton Credit for Strong Economy,” New York Times, September 6, 1996, B11.
Purdum, Todd S.. “A Clinton Foray Into Republican Territory,” New York Times, October 18, 1996, A27.
“Stung by Defeats in ’94, Clinton Co-opted Strategies Used by the G.O.P.,” New York Times, November 7, 1996, B5.
IV. World Wide Web sites:
“A Press WARNING from the National Council on Public Polls,” http://www.ncpp.org/push.htm , 2001/3/31.
”Deliberative Polls : How Participants Change (Selected Results)”, Texas: The National Issues Convention, Jan. 1996. http://www.la.utexas.edu/research/delpol/bluebook/delibpoll.html 2001/3/31.
Gibbs, Nancy & Michael Duffy. “Two Men, Two Visions: Where The Candidates Stand,” http://cgi.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/analysis/time/9611/04/gibbs.shtml, 2001/4/25.
Harris History. http://vr.harrispollonline.com/register/history.asp, 2000/10/30.
“Interview with Bob Squier,” The :30 Second Candidate, http://www.pbs.org/30secondcandidate/q_and_a/squier2.html, 2001/5/1.
Marshall, Will, Mark Penn, Robert Borosage, Satnley B. Greenberg, and Robert Kuttner. “Why Did Clinton Win?,” The American Prospect Online, http://www.prospect.org/print/V8/31/marshall-w.html , 2001/3/31.
Penn, Mark J. and Douglas E. Schoen, “Why our Game Plan Worked,” CNN TIME: All Politics, http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/9611/23/penn.schoen/index.shtml, 2001/3/31.
Stengel, Richard & Eric Pooley. “Masters Of The Message”, http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/time.special/pollster/index.shtml, 2000/9/1..
Stengel, Richard. “What Clinton Is Doing Right, Time ,” Volume 147, No.6, Feb. 5, 1996. http://www.time.com/time/magaize/archive/1996/dom/960205/clinton.sou.html, 2000/11/13.
“Taxes,” CNN TIME: ALL POLITICS, http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/issues/topics/taxes.shtml, 2001/4/23.
“The Morris Method,” Time, Volume 148, No.11, September 2, 1996. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/archive/1996/dom/960902/method.html, 2001/3/31.