本論文是透過艾里遜（Graham T. Allison）所提出的三個決策理論模式，即理性模式、組織模式和官僚政治模式，來探討雷根政府「八一七公報」的決策過程。艾里遜有鑑於理性模式並不能單獨解釋甘迺迪政府在古巴危機所做出的決策，因此強調必須結合組織模式與官僚政治模式，三者相輔相成，才足以解釋政府政策的制定。筆者將所蒐集到的資料套入三個決策模式中，證明三個決策決策模式成功的解釋「八一七公報」的簽訂。
本論文發現，在「八一七公報」的決策過程中，國務卿海格扮演著舉足輕重的角色，也是主要的始作俑者。至於本論文的主旨則是，雷根在國務卿海格的積極勸說與「聯中制蘇」的戰略利益考量之下，決定與中共簽訂「八一七公報」，但卻以「六項保證」與雷根親筆的「備忘錄」繼續履行美國對台灣的安全承諾。
海格挾著國務院龐大的組織力量在外交政策上專權武斷，卻也也是日後黯然下場的原因。雖然海格在公報簽署完成前即離開國務院，但若沒有他的努力，公報是不可能完成的。波蘭危機的發生凸顯了中共對美國的戰略價值。中共適時的利用這機會解決美國對台軍售問題。在國際情勢的考量下，雷根必須為保護其國家利益，不得不暫時擱下他反中共的意識，同意與中共簽署「八一七公報」。
雷根親台的立場讓他在未簽署公報之前，就向中華民國做出「六項保證」。 他又親筆闡釋他對公報的原意，供日後的總統參考，希望將公報對台灣的傷害降到最低。
雷根政府在「八一七公報」的決策過程在相當程度上證明艾里遜的三個決策模式，更證明了「八一七公報」的決策還是由國家利益所主導。

This thesis applies Graham T. Allison’s three decision-making models, i.e. the rational model, the organizational model and the government politics model, to the decision-making process of the Reagan administration in the U.S.-P.R.C. Arms Communiqué (the Arms Communiqué). Allison is of the view that the rational model alone could not explain the policies made by the Kennedy administration during the Cuban missile crisis. Therefore, he proposes that rational model must combine with organizational model and government politics model in order to offer explanations in governmental policies. The author of this thesis successfully explain the decision making process of the Arms Communiqué after applying historical materials into the three models.
This thesis also finds that Secretary of State Alexander Haig served not an important player but an initiator in the decision making process of the Arms Communiqué. The main theme of this thesis is that President Reagan decided to sign the Arms Communiqué with China under the influence of Haig’s vigorous persuasion and American strategic interest of “ uniting China to counter the USSR”; however, he continued to fulfill American obligations in Taiwan’s security by issuing the six assurances and a secret memorandum.
Haig, holding State Department’s enormous organizational resources, became despotic which seeded his resignation later. Although Haig left the State Department before the Arms Communiqué was signed, the communiqué would not be completed without his effort. The crisis in Poland amplified P.R.C.’s strategic values to the U.S. Mainland China used this crisis skillfully to resolve the issue of arms sale to Taiwan. Concerning the international situation, Reagan needed to protect national interest that left him no choice but temporarily discarded his anti-Chinese-communism stance to sign the Arms Communiqué with P.R.C.
Even before Reagan signed the Communiqué, his pro-Taiwan position made him convey six assurances to Taiwan. In addition, he reduced the damage done to Taiwan with his personal hand-written memorandum which let future U.S. presidents understand Reagan’s original intent when signing the Arms Communiqué.
The decision-making process in the Reagan administration on the subject of the Arms Communiqué vindicates the effectiveness of Allison’s three models in a great degree, but proves that national interests guide the decision making process of the communiqué in a even greater degree.

目錄
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究目的與論文主旨……………………………………1
第二節研究方法…………………………………………………3
第三節資料來源與研究範圍及限制……………………………4
第四節小結………………………………………………………5
第二章 研究理論與假設……………………………………………………6
第一節官僚政治模式…………………………………………...7
第二節組織行為模式…………………………………………...9
第三節理性行為者模式……………………………………….10
第四節小節…………………………………………………….13
第三章 FX 戰機引發的爭議……………………………………………...14
第一節 建交公報未竟之伏筆…………………………………14
第二節 國務院內部的分歧……………………………………21
第三節 國務院內部的整合……………………………………30
第四節 國家安全顧問艾倫之辭職……………………………38
第五節 小結……………………………………………………41
第四章 國務院主導八一七公報的談判過程……………………….…….45
第一節 美中開始談判第三個公報……………………………45
第二節 國務院主導八一七公報………………………………50
第三節 海格去職的影響仍在…………………………………57
第四節 小結……………………………………………………60
第五章 雷根的簽署………………………………………………………..63
第一節 雷根主義以蘇聯為對象……………………………….63
第二節 國際情勢的考量……………………………………….67
第三節 八一七公報的內容…………………………………….75
第四節 補救措施……………………………………………….79
第五節 小結…………………………………………………….83
第六章 結 論……………………………………………………………84
附錄………………………………………………………………………. 87
參考書目…………………………………………………………………102

參考書目
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