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研究生:張婉華
研究生(外文):Chang Wan Hwa
論文名稱:自動協商應用於電子商務
論文名稱(外文):Automated Negotiation in Electronic Commerce
指導教授:張昭憲張昭憲引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chang Jau Shien
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:資訊管理學系
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2001
畢業學年度:89
語文別:中文
論文頁數:48
中文關鍵詞:協商議價軟體代理人電子商務網際網路
外文關鍵詞:NegotiationBargainSoftware AgentElectronic CommerceInternet
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本論文針對雙邊多議題協商(Two-parties Multi-issues Negotiation)提出了一套以軟體代理人為基礎的自動化協商系統(Agent-based Automated Negotiation System)。為了獲得有效率且雙贏的協商結果,我們首先以預測對手喜好為目標,在互利原則與線性效用函數的假設下,利用窮舉法配合等式以逐步求出對手喜好的精確值或求其平均值。如此將可主導協商過程,並使結果落於效率前緣上。對於無法應用前述預測方法的協商,我們則提出了一種新的提案方式-集合式提案(Grouping Proposals)。此方法的特點在於:協商時只要雙方願意在每一回合將所有大於或等於我方目前效用的所有提案一次提供給對方,便可保證最終協商結果一定會落在效率前緣上,而且能消除對手在協商中可能產生的誤會。在讓步策略方面,本研究也提出了一種能由使用者設定期望效用的策略,其優點在於能根據協商者所設定的最後期望效用來設定讓步的幅度。為了驗證系統效能,我們設計了各種模擬實驗,實驗結果均顯示上述方法的有效性。

The thesis presents an agent-based Automated Negotiation System, ANS, for two-parties multi-issues negotiation. To obtain an efficient and win-win result, we first analyze the dynamics of the negotiation dance and identify the related problems. Then three special methods, Expected Utility Strategy, Grouping Proposals and Opponent Preference Prediction, are developed and combined into ANS. For expected utility strategy, a justification formula is used as the basis to calculate he concession amount in the next run. Because both the expected final utility of my own side and the opponent's concession are carefully concerned, thus a fair but expected negotiation results could be achieved. Besides, to prevent heartfelt concession from misunderstanding when the opponent’s preference is unknown, a new proposal method, grouping proposals, is proposed to avoid such a situation and further guarantee the negotiation result will locate on the efficient frontier. Finally, to actively guide the negotiation procedure, speculating the opponent’s preference is necessary and therefore a systematic prediction method is developed based on the assumption of linear utility functions and the principle of mutually benefit. By using the procedure, the opponent's preference usually can be successfully predicted in the early stage of negotiation. Elaborate experiments are performed and the simulation result clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of ANS.

第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景
1.2 文獻探討與研究動機
1.3 論文主旨
1.4 研究範圍
1.5 論文架構
第二章 自動協商之架構
2.1系統使用介面
2.2喜好的設定
2.3提案表
2.4協商問題的結構
2.5衡量協商結果的三個標準
第三章 協商策略與協商動線
3.1初始提案
3.2 讓步策略
3.3協商動線分析
第四章 有效率的協商
4.1 對手喜好預測
4.2 預測過程範例
4.3 集合式提案
第五章 實驗設計與結果分析
5.1 對手喜好預測實驗
5.2 期望效用策略有效性驗證
5.3 集合式提案有效性驗證
第六章 結論
參考文獻

[1] J. L. Mumpower, “The Judgment Policies of Negotiators and the Structure of Negotiation Problems,” Management Science, Vol. 37, No. 10. Oct. 1991, pp. 1304-1324.
[2] J. R. Oliver, “A Machine-Learning Approach to Automated Negotiation and Prospects for Electronic Commerce, “ Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol. 13, No. 3, Winter 1996-1997, pp. 83-112.
[3]R. Krovi, A. C. Graesser and W. E. Pracht, “Agent Behaviors in Virtual Negotiation Environments,” IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics(Part C), Vol.29, No.1, Feb. 1999, pp.15-25.
[4] K. Fischer, B. Chaib-draa, J.P. Muller, M. Pischel, and C. Gerber, “A Simulation Approach Based on Negotiation and Cooperation Between Agents: A Case Study,” IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics(Part C), Vol. 29, No.4 Nov. 1999, pp.531-545.
[5] E. Wang, S.-C. Fang, and H.Nuttle, “Soft Computing for Multi-customer Due-Date Bargaining,” IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics(Part C), Vol. 29, No.4 Nov. 1999, pp.566-575.
[6] H. Ehtamo, M. Verkama, and Kaimo P. Hamalainen, “ How to Select Fai Improving Directions in a Negotiation Model over Continuous Issues,” IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics(Part C), Vol. 29, No.1 Feb. 1999, pp.26-33.
[7] S. Matwin, T. Szapiro, and K. Haigh, “Genetic Algorithms Approach to a Negotiation Support System,” IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics(Part C), Vol. 21, No.1 , Jan/Feb 1991, pp.102-114.
[8] M. T. Tu, E. Wolff, and W. Lamersdorf, “Genetic Algorithms for Automated Negotiations: A FSM-Based Application Approach,” Proceedings of 11th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, 2000, pp. 1029-1033.
[9] R. Yahalom, and S. E. Madnick, “e-Commerce Bargain-Hunting with an unBun Model,” Proceedings of 1999 IFCIS International Conference on Cooperative Information Systems, pp.186-196.
[10] M. Szirbic, A. Aerts, H. Wortmann, D. Hammer, and J. Gosscnaerts, “Mediating Negotiations in a Virtual Enterprise via Mobile Agents,” Proceedings of Academia/Industry Working Conference on Research Challenges, 2000, pp. 237-242.
[11] R. Kowalczyk, and V. A. Bui, “FeNAs: A Fuzzy e-Negotiation Agents System,” Proceedings of the IEEE/IAFE/INFORMS 2000 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering, 2000, pp.26-29.
[12] H. Raiffa, The Art and Science of Negotiation, Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press, 1982.
[13] B. Limthanmaphon, Y. Zhang, and Z. Zhang, “An Agent-based Negotiation Model supporting transactions in Electronic Commerce,” Proceedings of 11th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, 2000, pp. 440-444.
[14] M. Benyoucef, and R. K. Keller, “A Conceptual Architecture for a Combined Negotiation Support System,” Proceedings. 11th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, 2000, pp. 1015-1019.
[15] M. Barbuceanu, and Wai-Kau Lo, “ A Multi-Attribute Utility Theoretic Negotiation Architecture for Electronic Commerce,” Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Autonomous Agents, 2000, pp. 239-246.
[16] J. Collins, C. Bilot, M. Gini, “Mixed-Initiative Decision Support in Agent-Based Automated Constracting,” Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Autonomous Agents, 2000, pp. 247-254.
[17] 朱宏揚, “自動化之整合協商代理人”,台灣大學碩士論文,民國八十九年六月。
[18] A. Rapoport, Two-Person Game Theory, New York, Dover Publications, 1996.
[19]Professor E. Wertheim, College of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Negotiations and Resolving Conflicts: An Overview, http://www.cba.neu.edu/~ewertheim/interper/negot3.htm
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[21]Anson, R. G, and M. T. Je;assi, A Develop ment Framework for Computer Supported Conflict Resolution, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol 46, 1990,pp.181-199.

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