本文首先說明日射量機率模型的建立方法，求得逐時日射量資料，提供太陽光伏電力系統模擬之用。其次說明獨立光伏電力系統各組件的特性，建立獨立光伏電力系統模型。本文採用交通部中央氣象局台南氣象站所提供，1994至1998年的逐日日射量與溫度資料作為模型的輸入數據，選擇「年累積缺電時數」(LOLH) 與「年累積缺電量期望值」(EENS) 作為電力系統之供電可靠度指標，以數值模擬法評估太陽能電池模組容量、蓄電池容量、供電可靠度三者間的關係，並改變系統參數，觀察環境變因、負載參數、及太陽能電池仰角對系統供電可靠度之影響。最後，說明系統供電可靠度用於尋求系統最佳容量的方法。研究的結果除供電可靠度與最佳容量外，亦可提供日射量的接收情形、光伏電池發電量、蓄電池端電壓、蓄電池充／放電流及蓄電池放電深度等系統重要參考指標。

　　This thesis begins with probabilistic modeling of solar radiation for simulating hourly insolation. This is followed by modeling of components of a stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) system for whole system dynamic simulation. The daily solar radiation data from 1994 to 1998 provided by the Central Weather Bureau are taken as inputs. The Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) and the Expected Energy Not Served (EENS) are chosen as reliability indices of the PV power system. The dynamic simulation gives the relation between PV module capacity, battery capacity and reliability indices, and shows the effects of system parameters, environment, load parameters and PV module tilt angle on the system performance. The simulation is useful for reliability evaluation and optimal sizing. It also provides important information on energy conversion performance, generated energy, battery terminal voltage, charge/discharge current and depth of discharge of battery.

中文摘要--------------------------------------------I
英文摘要--------------------------------------------II
致謝--------------------------------------------III
目錄--------------------------------------------IV
圖目錄--------------------------------------------VII
表目錄--------------------------------------------X
符號說明--------------------------------------------XI
第一章緒論----------------------------------------1
1.1研究背景與動機---------------------1
1.2研究目標---------------------------2
1.3研究範圍及限制---------------------3
1.4研究方法---------------------------31.4.1簡要法-----------------------------5
1.4.2機率分析法-------------------------5
1.4.3數值模擬法-------------------------6
1.5國內外相關研究情形-----------------7
1.5.1國內的研究情形---------------------7
1.5.2國外的研究情形---------------------8
1.6論文大綱---------------------------9
第二章日射量機率模型之建立------------------------11
2.1前言-------------------------------11
2.1.1地表日射量的隨機性-----------------11
2.1.2日射量機率模型的重要性-------------11
2.1.3基本原理---------------------------12
2.2碧日射量的計算---------------------13
2.3晴空指標---------------------------14
2.4二項分佈模型-----------------------15
2.5模擬程式摡述-----------------------17
2.6模擬結果與討論---------------------19
第三章獨立光伏電力系統----------------------------23
3.1獨立光伏電力系統架構---------------23
3.2氣象模型---------------------------23
3.2.1日射量模型-------------------------23
3.2.2氣溫模型---------------------------25
3.3太陽能電池模型---------------------25
3.4負載模型---------------------------29
3.4.1均勻負載---------------------------29
3.4.2單峰值負載-------------------------30
3.4.3弦式負載---------------------------31
3.5電源轉換器模型---------------------32
3.6充放電控制器模型-------------------34
3.7蓄電池模型-------------------------35
3.8供電可靠度指標---------------------36
第四章影響供電可靠度之變因------------------------37
4.1前言-------------------------------37
4.2負載參數改變對供電可靠度之影響-----37
4.2.1均勻負載參數-----------------------38
4.2.2單峰值負載參數---------------------384.2.3弦式負載參數-----------------------40
4.2.4隨機負載參數-----------------------41
4.3環境因素對供電可靠度之影響---------44
4.3.1溫度變化對供電可靠度之影響---------44
4.3.2風速變化對供電可靠度之影響---------45
4.4太陽能電池仰角的設置對供電可靠度之影響46
4.5模擬程式概述-----------------------48
第五章最佳容量設計--------------------------------51
5.1前言-------------------------------51
5.2最佳容量設計方法-------------------51
5.3不同供電可靠度需求對最佳容量設計的影響52
5.4設備價格的波動對最佳容量設計的影響-54
第六章模擬結果與討論------------------------------57
6.1獨立光伏電力系統模型各部分運作情形57
6.1.1日射量及太陽能電池發電量-----------57
6.1.2蓄電池與負載-----------------------60
6.1.3LOLH與EENS-------------------------66
6.2BATT-PV-LOLH三維立體圖與等高線圖---686.3BATT-PV-EENS 三維立體圖與等高線圖--72
第七章結論與未來研究方向--------------------------77
參考文獻--------------------------------------------79
附錄A太陽幾何學----------------------------------84
A.1日射量的來源-----------------------84
A.2太陽與地球的相關位置---------------85
A.3固定平面上的入射角-----------------89
A.4碧空日射量-------------------------96
A.5太陽幾何學之主要符號說明-----------96
附錄B太陽能電池模組廠商型錄----------------------98
作者簡歷--------------------------------------------103

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