臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文主要探討我國上市與上櫃公司是否普遍從事盈餘管理，使用BD（1997）與DPZ（1999）之研究所採用之綜合橫斷面統計次數分配法（pooled cross-sectional distribution approach）檢測我國企業是否受到避免產生帳面虧損、維持前期盈餘績效與避免逾越強制性盈餘財務預測誤差率之限制三項門檻心理所驅使而普遍從事盈餘管理，同時，亦探究我國企業受門檻心理影響而從事盈餘管理是否受景氣榮枯所影響。
本研究結果證實我國上市與上櫃公司普遍受三項心理門檻驅使而從事盈餘管理，惟水泥業、汽車業與運輸業呈現不顯著，且在面臨實際盈餘數些微超越預測盈餘數時，亦發現營建業與電線電纜業並不因法令管制壓力而進行盈餘管理。

此外，本文亦進一步依據景氣燈號分組進行檢測，發現實證結果僅有EM 1-1與假說相符。亦即景氣循環對於避免產生帳面虧損、維持前期盈餘績效與符合財務預測20%誤差門檻之盈餘管理行為並無影響。

This paper tests whether Taiwan listed and OTC companies would management earnings commonly. We refer to pooled cross-sectional distribution approach that is the methodology for identifying earnings management developed by Burgstahler and Dichev(1997) and Degeorge, Patel and Zeckhauser(1999) to examine the behavior of earnings management in Taiwan. Our empirical explorations identified earnings management to exceed each of three threshold: report of positive profit, sustaining last year’s earnings performance, and exceeding mandatory management forecast errors. Furthermore, we also explored what the business cycle impacted on the behavior of earnings management in Taiwan.

The empirical results indicate that Taiwan listed and OTC companies managed earnings to exceed each of three thresholds. The analyses of the data by different industries show cement, automotive and transport industries were insignificant statistically on threshold of sustaining last year’s earnings performance. When architecture and electric wire and cable industries’ forecast earnings had over real earnings lightly, the empirical results were not support the hypotheses. Besides, we also examined the data by different business cycle signal. We found the empirical results were same as the hypotheses anticipated. In other words, business cycle didn’t affect listed and OTC companies to managed earnings to exceed the threshold of report of positive profit, sustaining last year’s earnings performance, and meet mandatory management 20% forecast errors.

目錄
頁次
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………..1
第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………………………..1
第二節 研究架構………………………………………………………………..6

第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………………………..7
第一節 盈餘管理驅策動機之研究…………………………………………….7
第二節 盈餘管理工具之文獻………………………………………………...13

第三章 研究方法……………………………………………………………… 17
第一節 研究設計……………………………………………………………...17
第二節 研究假說……………………………………………………………...19
第三節 實證分析模式與變數定義…………………………………………...22
第四節 資料來源、研究期間與樣本選取…………………………………...25

第四章 實證結果與分析……………………………………………………………27
第一節 盈餘管理心理門檻系列假說之基本敘述統計量….………………..27
第二節 盈餘管理心理門檻假說以及敏感性測試之統計檢定量分析……...38

第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………………54
第一節 實證結論……………………………………………………………...54
第二節 研究限制與建議……………………………………………………...56

參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………..57
附錄1：Z檢定中STDi的證明…………………………………………………….61




表次
頁次
表2-1：盈餘管理驅策動機之研究彙總表…………..………………………………8
表2-2：盈餘管理工具動機之文獻彙總表……………….…………………….…..14
表4-1：EM 1假說基本敘述統計量……………….……………………………….29
表4-2：EM 2假說基本敘述統計量……………………………….……………….30
表4-3：EM 3假說基本敘述統計量…………………………………………………31
表4-4：EM 4假說基本敘述統計量………………………………………………...32
表4-5：景氣對策信號資料…………………………………………………………33
表4-6：EM 1-1假說基本敘述統計量……………………………………………..35
表4-7：EM 2-1假說基本敘述統計量……………………………………………..36
表4-8：EM 3-1假說基本敘述統計量………………………………………………37
表4-9：EM 4-1假說基本敘述統計量………………………………………………38
表4-10：EM 1假說檢定之統計量……………………………………………….…43
表4-11：EM 2假說檢定之統計量……………………………………………….…44
表4-12：EM 3假說檢定之統計量………………………………………………….45
表4-13：EM 4假說檢定之統計量…………………………………………………46
表4-14：EM 1-1假說檢定之統計量………………………………………………50
表4-15：EM 2-1假說檢定之統計量………………………………………………51
表4-16：EM 3-1假說檢定之統計量………………………………………………52
表4-17：EM 4-1假說檢定之統計量………………………………………………53

圖次
頁次
圖1-1：研究架構…………………………………..………………………………6

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