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研究生:林宏怡
論文名稱:新產品擴散之動態研究-系統動力學觀點
論文名稱(外文):The Dynamic of New Products’ Diffusion— System Dynamics Approach
指導教授:羅世輝羅世輝引用關係王學銘王學銘引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:大葉大學
系所名稱:事業經營研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:146
中文關鍵詞:系統動力學新產品管理動態性複雜政策實驗室創新擴散
外文關鍵詞:System Dynamicsnew products’ managementdynamic complexitypolicy laboratorydiffusion of innovation
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中文摘要
由於科技日新月異、生產技術進步、社會環境變化迅速,導致消費者消費型態的改變,加上消費者的消費能力與需求層次一再地提昇,使市場的競爭也愈來愈激烈,各家廠商都必須不斷的推出新產品才能在市場上維持競爭的優勢;而新產品在市場上推出的成功與否,可將「創新擴散」視為其核心過程。
  一般研究擴散的相關文獻,多以數學方程式推導、統計方法、靜態的觀點來進行分析與探討,對於動態性複雜問題的探討很少。本研究利用擅長處理動態複雜系統且以回饋控制理論為基礎的「系統動力學」做為研究方法及工具,並以相關的擴散研究為理論基礎,從整體、動態的角度來研究新產品擴散之過程,進而建立一動態模式,探討各結構面間的互動關係。
  透過模式模擬及分析不同情境下,可以發現:
(一)塑造相對性關鍵吸引力的重要性:廠商若能塑造相對性關鍵吸引力或搭配更多、更強的吸引力,將是更有效的做法。
(二)創新係數與模仿係數的大小:創新係數或模仿係數愈大,則單位時間的採用量愈大,且會縮短採用生命週期的時間。
(三)政策動態搭配對於公司成長之關鍵性:廠商成長的動態過程中,整體政策動態搭配對於廠商佔有極大的影響力。
(四)外在環境偵測能力之影響性:平時建立起公司對於外在環境之偵測能力,避免危機產生時對公司所造成的衝擊。
(五)政策實驗室的建構:本研究建構了一個新產品擴散過程的動態模式,即政策實驗室,藉由所建構的模式來分析各情境假設的模擬結果;作為日後廠商在規劃未來市場決策和管理上,提供一種較有效的方式。
  最後,並針對後續進一步研究的發展方向提出建議及說明。
關鍵詞:系統動力學、新產品管理、動態性複雜、政策實驗室、創新擴散
Abstract
Because technology, product technique, and social environment change rapidly, the shopping style of consumers also change fast. Consumers’ purchase ability and demand levels are more improve; the competition of market is more intense. Each company should provide new products constantly that maintain competitive advantage in the market. However, new products that the companies provide are success or fail, “diffusion of innovation” is the core process.
The general researches in diffusion usually use mathematic equation inference, statistic method, and static viewpoint to analyze and investigate. But few researches discuss the dynamic complexity in diffusion. “System Dynamics” is good to deal with the dynamic comolex system and bases on feedback control system, so this thesis use system dynamics method and some diffusion theory to investigate the process of the new products’ diffusion. Then we construct a dynamic model of new products’ diffusion and analyze the interaction among each structure.
After accomplishing the system dynamics model, the model will proceed to scenario analysis. Then this study has five findings:
1. The importance of creat critical relatively attraction: If the companies can creat critical relatively attraction or with more powerful attraction will be the efficient way.
2. Innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient: If the Innovation coefficient or imitation coefficient is large, the adopter per unit time is large and it will reduce the life cycle time.
3. It’s important for the company to grow that it would make up dynamic policy.
4. The influence of detected ability in the environment: The company must have the detected ability of the environment in daily, and it will protect the company from damage in danger.
5. The construct of policy laboratory: This thesis construct a dynamic model, policy laboratory, is the process of new products’ diffusion. According to the system dynamics model, it will proceed to scenario analysis. It provides more effective way for the company to plan marketable policy and management in future.
Keyword: System Dynamics, new products’ management, dynamic complexity, policy laboratory, diffusion of innovation.
目 錄
封面內頁
簽名頁
授權書 iii
中文摘要 v
英文摘要 vii
誌謝 ix
目錄 xi
圖目錄 xiv
表目錄 xvii
1. 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究方法 3
1.3.1採用系統動力學的理由 4
1.3.2系統動力學的特性 6
1.4 研究範圍與限制 8
1.5 研究流程 10
1.6 論文架構 11
2. 文獻探討 13
2.1 新產品之定義 13
2.2 擴散理論模式探討 15
2.2.1 Rogers的創新擴散(技術採用的生命週期) 15
2.2.2 Bass的擴散模式 21
2.3 國內擴散方面的相關研究 24
2.4 系統動力學相關文獻 33
2.4.1 系統動力學的緣起與發展 33
2.4.2 系統動力學的理論基礎 35
2.4.3 系統動力學的應用 38
2.5 擴散模式應用之系統動力學研究 40
2.5.1 Paich & Sterman的創新擴散模式 40
2.5.2 Milling的創新擴散模式 45
3. 模式建構之方法及擴散次系統概念 48
3.1 系統動力學模式結構概述 48
3.2 因果回饋圖 51
3.3 系統動力學建模程序 53
3.4 簡單存貨控制之系統動力學模式釋例 56
3.5 新產品擴散之次系統概念 59
4. 新產品擴散之系統動力學模式 60
4.1 市場擴散次系統 60
4.2 市場分配與吸引力次系統 65
4.3 廠商次系統 70
4.4 財務結構次系統 75
4.5 模式總覽 77
5. 模式模擬與情境分析 79
5.1 基本模擬 79
5.1.1 基本條件設定 79
5.1.2 條件一致之基本模擬 82
5.1.3 條件不一致之基本模擬 85
5.2 情境模擬(一) 87
5.3 情境模擬(二) 90
5.4 情境模擬(三) 93
5.5 情境模擬(四) 95
5.6 情境模擬(五) 96
5.7 模式模擬分析之彙整 97
6. 結論與未來研究建議 99
6.1 研究發現與管理上的意涵 99
6.2 未來研究建議 102
參考文獻 104
附錄一 115
A、模式總覽流圖 115
B、方程式系統 117
C、變數名稱說明 125
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