臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) 評價模型為目前會計界最熱門的評價模式，此評價模型是一個有效衡量公司真實價值的方法，經外國學者及實務界的研究結果，證實該模型可快速且正確計算出公司的真實價值。但本研究中，發現在Lee (1996) 所提出的EBO評價模型試算表中，EPS預測值及EPS成長率是影響公司最終估計價值最直接、最具影響力的變數。因此本研究提出相對之改善方法：
1. 區間化EBO評價模型，以預估模型中EPS成長率可能具有上下波動的情形，以較符合實際情況，而最終求得公司估計價值區間，可以因應公司及總體環境未來可能因種種不確定因素所帶給公司價值的變動。實證結果發現，當EPS成長率波動程度為50 % 時，傳統產業類股（水泥類股、紡織類股）比高科技類股（電子類股）能得到較好的結果。相對地，當EPS成長率波動程度為100 % 時，高科技類股比傳統產業類股能得到較好的結果。而就年度別來看，隨著時間的增加，實際股價落於區間化EBO評價模型的估計價值區間中的比例亦隨之增加。
2. 模糊化EBO評價模型，加入隸屬度的計算於區間化EBO評價模型中以表達EPS成長率發生上下波動的可能性。此外，模糊化模型考慮到不同投資人對於投資時可能具有不同的投資偏好，故提出積極模糊化模型及保守模糊化模型。實證結果發現，公司價值的預測結果會因模糊化模型的選擇而有不同的結果。

Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) model has been one of the popular accounting valuation models. Many studies have shown that EBO model is an efficient method to assess firms’ intrinsic values. However, the empirical studies in this study show that the EBO model implemented in Lee (1996) highly relies on the predicted EPS and the predicted EPS growth rate. Hence, the movements of both variables greatly affect the valuation of firms. Meanwhile, the predicted EPS growth rate remains the same for the rest of years in that model. As a result, the calculated values of the firms from that model vary from their corresponding stock prices a lot. To prevent this problem, an interval EBO model and a fuzzy EBO model are proposed.
1. An interval EBO model is an EBO model where the predicted interval EPS growth rate is used instead of the EPS growth rate. The predicted interval EPS growth rate can accommodate the uncertainties in and out of the firms. Hence, the calculated values by the interval EBO model are closer to their corresponding stock prices. The following conclusions are drawn from the empirical results.
(1) When the volatility degree of EPS growth rate is 50%, conventional industries (cement, textile) have better results than high tech companies (electronic). On contrary, when the volatility degree of EPS growth rate is 100%, high tech companies have better results than conventional industries.
(2) With time increasing, the percentage increases that the stock prices fall into the estimate value interval of the interval EBO valuation model.
2. A fuzzy EBO model where memberships are put into the model to represent the possibility of volatility of EPS growth rate. In addition, a fuzzy EBO model considers different investors have different invest preferences, so a greedy fuzzy EBO model and a conservative fuzzy EBO model are proposed. From the empirical results, investors with different investing behaviors can use the fuzzy EBO model in different ways to obtain their maximum profits.

摘要 ……………………………………………………………………. Ⅰ
目錄 ……………………………………………………………………. Ⅲ
圖目錄 ……………………………………………………………………. Ⅳ
表目錄 ……………………………………………………………………. Ⅴ
第壹章 緒論………………………………………………………………. 1
第一節 研究背景及動機…………………………………………………. 1
第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………………. 2
第三節 研究範圍及限制…………………………………………………. 3
第四節 研究流程…………………………………………………………. 4
第五節 研究架構…………………………………………………………. 5
第貳章 文獻探討…………………………………………………………. 6
第一節 理論部分…………………………………………………………. 6
第二節 國內文獻…………………………………………………………. 10
第三節 國外文獻…………………………………………………………. 16
第參章 EBO模型之研究方法與實證…………………………………… 22
第一節 研究方法…………………………………………………………. 22
第二節 實證分析…………………………………………………………. 29
第三節 討論………………………………………………………………. 48
第肆章 區間化EBO模型之研究方法與實證…………………………… 49
第一節 研究方法…………………………………………………………. 49
第二節 實證分析…………………………………………………………. 62
第三節 討論………………………………………………………………. 81
第伍章 模糊化EBO模型之研究方法與實證…………………………… 82
第一節 研究方法…………………………………………………………. 82
第二節 實證分析…………………………………………………………. 94
第三節 討論………………………………………………………………. 102
第陸章 結論與建議………………………………………………………. 106
第一節 結論………………………………………………………………. 106
第二節 建議………………………………………………………………. 107
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………. 109

一、中文部分：
1. 李定寧，台灣新上市公司股價評價，淡江大學財務金融研究所碩士論文，民國90年。
2. 李蕙如，企業評價─以電子資訊工業為例，東海大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，民國90年。
3. 林家帆，以實質選擇權法評估高科技產業股價，政治大學金融研究所碩士論文，民國90年。
4. 林傳敏，公司估價─如何衡量公司價值（上），企銀報導，第十八卷第十期，民國89年10月，頁28-39。
5. 林傳敏，公司估價─如何衡量公司價值（下），企銀報導，第十八卷第十一期，民國89年11月，頁30-40。
6. 邱建欽，台灣地區上市公司股票評價模式之研究─以機電業為例，政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，民國89年。
7. 胡華盛，股價評估模式的選擇─以台灣科技公司台達電為例，政治大學金融研究所碩士論文，民國88年。
8. 陳怡倫，台灣高科技產業上市公司股票評價模式之研究，政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，民國86年。
9. 陳惠玲，TEJ企業評價分析模組，貨幣觀測與信用評等，第三期，民國86年1月，頁13-20。
10. 黃宏德，台灣股市選股指標績效評估，中山大學財務管理研究所碩士論文，民國89年。
11. 黃焜煌、李俊明，應用EBO在台股股價之預測：水泥、紡織與電子資訊股之實證研究，逢甲大學2001現代財務論壇，民國90年11月。
12. 鄔洪勇，企業評價關鍵因素之研究，東海大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，民國83年。
13. 藍心梅，會計基礎評量模式在台灣股市適用性之研究，中原大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國90年。
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