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研究生:彭子玲
研究生(外文):Peng, Tzu-Ling
論文名稱:從投資人保護觀點與展望理論探討各國銀行業盈餘管理之現象與動機
論文名稱(外文):Earnings Management, Investor Protection and Prospect Theory: An International Comparison inBanking Theory
指導教授:池祥麟池祥麟引用關係陳勝源陳勝源引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chih, Hsiang-LinChen, Shen-Yuan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:銘傳大學
系所名稱:國際企業管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:英文
論文頁數:89
中文關鍵詞:盈餘管理門檻投資人保護展望理論法規執行力反董事會權利會計報表品質內線交易
外文關鍵詞:earnings managementthresholdinvestor protectionprospect theorylaw enforcementanti-director rightsaccounting standardinsider trading
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會計報表的揭露是否能代表公司真實營運績效一直是投資人關切的問題,銀行業由於受到政府法規高度管制,因此以盈餘管理隱藏真實盈餘的行為有可能與其他產業不同,故本文想瞭解各國銀行業是否有為了「避免盈餘損失」及「避免盈餘下降」而進行盈餘管理的現象。其次,各國對投資人保護的程度有所不同,從而在盈餘管理程度上形成差異,因此本文進一步探討法律對投資人的保護是否會影響銀行進行盈餘管理的動機。而「展望理論」是否為盈餘管理的推論性動機,過去學者並未加以實證,所以本文亦將對此進行實證分析。期望透過深入的剖析,有助於投資人評估各國銀行業之真實經營績效。
本研究以1993~1999年為研究期間,首先瞭解銀行業是否有為了「避免盈餘損失」及「避免盈餘下降」而進行盈餘管理的現象。其次從法律起源、反董事會權利、法規執行力、會計報表品質、內線交易程度,探討各國法律對投資人保護程度差異是否對盈餘管理產生影響。並分析「法律對投資人保護」愈高時,銀行內部人員是否會因為「愈難以移轉利益」而減少盈餘管理,還是會「預期盈餘表現不佳將招致愈高的懲罰」而增加盈餘管理。最後,透過風險報酬模型及絕對風險規避值觀點探討展望理論是否為盈餘管理的內在動機。
研究結果顯示:
1.銀行業會為了避免盈餘損失及盈餘下降而進行盈餘管理,且避免盈餘損失的現象較避免盈餘下降而進行盈餘管理的現象更為顯著。
2.小額盈餘獲利及小額盈餘增加的組別(實驗組)較小額盈餘損失及小額盈餘下降的組別(對照組)更能看出盈餘管理現象。
3.從法源系統來看,在投資人保護高的英屬國家,其政府對銀行「盈餘發生損失」會給予嚴厲懲罰,因此銀行會為了規避懲罰而進行「避免盈餘損失」的盈餘管理行為(符合懲罰假設)。但在投資人保護低的法屬國家則沒有顯著差異,這是因為法律對銀行是否進行盈餘管理沒有嚴密監理控制,因此銀行不會因為「預期懲罰」或「移轉活動難易」而在盈餘管理行為上有顯著差異。
4.「法規執行力」來自政府當局,結果顯示:
(1)當「法規執行力」愈高,銀行愈會去「避免盈餘損失」。此種結果可能反映出:政府通常不希望銀行發生「盈餘損失」,因此,當政府的「法規執行力」愈高,銀行發生「盈餘損失」時愈可能遭受到政府的懲罰,從而銀行愈會在事前進行「避免盈餘損失」的盈餘管理行為(符合懲罰假設)。
(2)當「法規執行力」愈高,銀行愈不會去「避免盈餘下降」。此種結果可能反映出:政府通常不會要求銀行盈餘必須呈現成長,反而會為了要求銀行降低經營風險而增提壞帳準備,而讓銀行可能發生「盈餘下降」的情況。從而,當銀行發生「盈餘下降」時,政府給予懲罰的可能性相對較低。因此,在探討銀行「避免盈餘下降」的盈餘管理行為時,懲罰假設的重要性會低於移轉假設的重要性。亦即當「法規執行力」愈高,銀行內部人員愈難透過「避免盈餘下降」的盈餘管理行為以移轉利益(符合移轉假設)。
5.「反董事會權利」來自外部投資人,結果顯示當「反董事會權利」愈高,銀行愈會去「避免盈餘下降」,但愈不會去「避免盈餘損失」。此意味著投資人比較在乎銀行盈餘的成長,而較不在乎銀行盈餘的正負。從而銀行為了規避因「盈餘下降」而受到投資人反董事會的懲罰,會進行「避免盈餘下降」的盈餘管理行為(符合懲罰假設);當盈餘發生損失時,懲罰假設的重要性會低於移轉假設的重要性,從而在移轉假設之下,「反董事會權利」愈高,會使銀行內部人員愈難以移轉利益,而降低「避免盈餘損失」的盈餘管理行為。
6.「會計品質」代表會計報表被揭露程度的多寡。「會計品質」愈高,表示外部人員愈能夠瞭解銀行內部真實績效,外部人員受到的保護也愈高,因此銀行較無法藉由盈餘管理隱瞞利益移轉行為,盈餘管理的動機會減少(符合移轉假設)。
7.「內線交易品質」愈低 (亦即內線交易愈嚴重),銀行為了「避免盈餘下降」而進行盈餘管理的動機愈低。此代表著內線交易愈嚴重的國家,其投資人愈不相信盈餘數字,因此銀行沒有必要為了「避免盈餘下降」而進行盈餘管理。
8.就銀行業而言,展望理論確實為「避免盈餘損失」之盈餘管理門檻效果的內在動機。但不一定為「避免盈餘下降」之盈餘管理門檻效果的內在動機。
Many past literatures have addressed earnings management in the banking industry, but not from meeting earnings thresholds─to avoid earnings decreases and losses. This research provides evidences that there exists earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses in the banking industry across 48 countries in the period between 1993 and 1999, and we find that avoiding earnings losses is more significant than avoiding earnings decreases.
Furthermore, we discuss whether outside investor protection (legal origin, anti-director rights, legal enforcement, accounting standard and insider trading) would be the incentive of earnings management in the banking industry. We consider two competing hypotheses: "diversion hypothesis" and "penalty hypothesis" of how investor protection affects insiders'' incentive to manage reported earnings. The major conclusions are as follows:
1.As to "legal origin", we find the "penalty hypothesis" to avoid earnings prevails in common law countries with the strongest protection of investors. But in the region with weakest protection of investors, such as French civil law countries, wouldn''t show significant differences.
2."Legal enforcement" comes from the government. We find the government would pay more attention to earnings losses than to earnings decreases. If legal enforcement were stronger, banks would expect the penalty is higher and would avoid earnings losses (penalty hypothesis). But banks wouldn''t avoid earnings decreases since the government usually asks banks to have loan loss provision to lower the operating risk.
3."Anti-director rights" belongs to outside investors. We find outside investors would pay more attention to earnings decreases than earnings losses. Therefore, if anti-director rights were stronger, banks would expect penalty is higher and would avoid earnings decreases (penalty hypothesis). But banks wouldn''t avoid earnings losses (diversion hypothesis).
4.If "accounting standard" were higher, the financial reports would reveal more information. Thus insiders would be hard to hide their diversion activities, and earnings management would be less (diversion hypothesis).
5.If "insider trading" were more serious, the outside investors wouldn''t trust the earnings numbers. Thus banks don''t have to manage earnings.
6.Finally, we discuss whether prospect theory would be the incentive of earnings management in banking industry. According to risk-return model and absolute risk aversion, our evidence supports the prospect theory is the strong incentive to avoid earnings losses, but not the significant incentive to avoid earnings decreases.
第壹章 序論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 4
第三節 研究範圍 5
第四節 研究架構與流程 5
第貳章 文獻探討 7
第一節 盈餘管理概念與衡量 7
第二節 以盈餘門檻進行盈餘管理 14
第三節 銀行業以盈餘門檻進行盈管理 17
第四節 盈餘管理的動機 18
第五節 展望理論 21
第參章 研究設計 26
第一節 資料來源與樣本選取 26
第二節 研究假設 28
第三節 研究步驟與研究方法 35
第肆章 實證結果與分析 41
第一節 盈餘門檻現象 41
第二節 「投資人保護」與盈餘管理 44
第三節 「展望理論」與盈餘管理 54
第四節 結論 61
第伍章 研究結論與建 63
第一節 研究結論 63
第二節 研究限制 66
第三節 建議與未來研究方向 66
參考文獻 68
附錄 72
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