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研究生:張勝忠
研究生(外文):Chang
論文名稱:台灣退休金制度與年金保險之金錢價值與所得替代率探討
指導教授:王儷玲王儷玲引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:風險管理與保險學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:風險管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:55
中文關鍵詞:退休金計劃金錢價值比率所得替代率
外文關鍵詞:Pension planMoney''s worth ratioReplacement rate
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  隨著醫療技術進步及生活水準的提高,使得人類平均壽命延長,人口結構有逐漸高齡化的趨勢,促使人們開始關切未來老年生活的財源。因此,本研究以金錢價值比率及所得替代率,來建構退休金所得規劃模型,探討在台灣各種不同的退休金制度及商業年金保險下,個人所擁有的金錢價值及所得替代率到底為何?利用過去25年的實證資料,採用66年到90年的各項實證資料,以模擬分析的方式,分析退休金制度及商業年金保險之現金流量,求算其金錢價值比率及所得替代率,並與澳洲、加拿大等國家的年金商品金錢價值比率,及退休金所得替代率相比較,分析造成其中差異的因素。
  研究結果發現:(1)台灣退休金制度之金錢價值比率遠高於商業年金保險之比率;(2)在商業年金保險中,男性的金錢價值比率比女性的金錢價值比率高;(3)附加費用的多寡,使得即期年金之金錢價值比率高於遞延年金之比率約10%左右;(4)國內外的大多數年金商品金錢價值比率,大約都在90%到98%之間,表示其附加費用率大致相同;(5)在台灣退休金制度中,公務人員擁有較充足的退休金,而勞工退休金卻遠遠的不足;且相較於其他國家的退休金所得替代率,台灣除了公務人員退撫基金較為充足外,勞工退休金及社會福利支出方面是相當不夠的。
Owing to the improvement of medical technology and living standard, the average life of human is extending and the structure of population is aging. It makes people to worry about the financial soundness of future life. This paper has following two objectives. First, we construct a evaluation model of pension value by using money’s worth ratio and replacement rate. Second, we compare the money’s worth ratio and replacement rates of different pension plans and annuities between different individuals. We use the empirical data from 1977 to 2001 in Taiwan for this study. We calculate the money’s worth ratio and replacement rate of different pension plans and annuities and analyze the cash flow of them by using the simulated method. We also compare the money’s worth ratio of annuities and replacement rate of pension plans between Taiwan, and the other countries, such as Australia, and Canada, and analyze the reasons causing these differences.
The empirical results are as follow. First, the money’s worth ratio of pension plan is higher than that of the commercial annuity in Taiwan. Second, in commercial annuity, the money’s worth ratio of male is higher than that of the female. Third, the money’s worth ratio of immediate annuity is higher than that of the deferred annuity about 10% because of the expense loading. Fourth, the money’s worth ratio of domestic or overseas annuities is between 90% and 98%. It means the loadings of them are not much difference. Fifth, the public officers have sufficient pension annuity, whereas the laborers have insufficient pension annuity. Finally, from the comparison of replacement rates of between Taiwan and other countries, we find that replacement rate of laborers in both private pension and public pension are insufficient except for the public officers.
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的…………………………………1
第二節 研究方法………………………………………………5
第三節 研究範圍與限制………………………………………5
第四節 論文架構………………………………………………7
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………8
第一節 金錢價值………………………………………………8
第二節 所得替代率……………………………………………11
第三章 模型架構與實證資料…………………………………16
第一節 模型架構………………………………………………16
第二節 實證資料………………………………………………20
第四章 實證分析………………………………………………25
第五章 結綸與建議……………………………………………38
第一節 結論……………………………………………………38
第二節 建議……………………………………………………40
第三節 後續研究建議…………………………………………41
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………42
中文部分:
王儷玲,年金保險,人身風險管理與理財,第十章,致勝文化出版公司,2000年。
王儷玲,退休財務規劃與年金保險,退休基金季刊,第一卷第二期,第9-28頁,2000年。
王儷玲,勞工退休金條例草案建議修正為兩層式之個人帳戶制,退休基金季刊,第二卷第四期,第51-55頁,2001年。
李家泉,實用壽險數理,華泰文化事業公司,2000年。
符寶玲,退休基金制度與管理,華泰文化事業公司,1997年。
陳仁泓,退休金個人帳戶下投資決策與所得替代率探討,政治大學風險管理與保險研究所碩士論文,2001年。
英文部分:
Aldrich, Jonathan, Nov. 1982, The Earnings Replacement Rate of Old-Age Benefits in 12 Countries, 1969-80, Social Security Bulletin, 45(11), 3-11.
Allen, Everett T., Joseph J Melone, Jerry S. Rosenbloom and Jack L. Vanderhei, 1997, Pension Planning : Pension, Profit-sharing, and Other Deferred Compensation Plans, New York: The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Bernbeim, B. Douglas, 1992, Is the Baby Boom Generation Preparing Adequately for Retirement, Technical Report, Princeton, N. J.:Merrill Lynch.
Blanchflower, David G. and Andrew J. Oswald, 2000, Well-Being Over Time in Britain and the USA, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #7487.
Brown, Jeffrey R., Olivia S. Mitchell and James M. Poterba, 2000, Mortality Risk, Inflation Risk, and Annuity Products, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #7812.
Brown, Jeffrey R., 2000, Differential Mortality and the Value of Individual Account Retirement Annuities, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #7560.
Cutler, David M. and Elizabeth Richardson, 1999, Your Money and Your Life: The Value of Health and What Affects It, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #6895.
Doyle, Suzanne, Olivia S. Mitchell and John Piggott, 2001, Annuity Values in Defined Contribution Retirement, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #8091.
Friedman, Benjamin and Mark J. Warshawsky, Feb. 1990, The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135-54.
Geanakoplos, John, Olivia S. Mitchell and Stephen P. Zeldes, 2000, Social Security Money’s Worth, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #6722.
Grad, Susan, Oct. 1990, Earnings Replacement Rates of New Retired Workers, Social Security Bulletin, 53(10), 2-19.
Gustman, Alan L. and Thomas L. Steinmeier, Jun. 1999, Effects of Pensions on Savings: Analysis with Data from the Health and Retirement Study, Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 50(99), 271-324.
Hall, Brian J., 1998, Regulatory Free Cash Flow and the High Cost of Insurance Company Failures, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #6837.
Horlick, Max, Aug. 1988, Earnings Replacement Rate of Old -Age Benefits: An International Comparison: Commentary, Social Security Bulletin, 51(8), 12, 48-49.
Imrohoroglu, Ayse, Selahattin Imrohoroglu and Douglas H. Joines, Jun. 1995, A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security, Economic Theory, 6(1), 83-114.
Ippolito, Richard A., 2002, Stayers as “Worker” and “Savers”: Toward Reconciling the Pension-Quit Literature, The Journal of Human Resources, 37(2), 275-308.
____, 1985, The Labor Contract and True Economic Pension Liabilities, American Economic Review, 75(5), 1031-1043.
James, Estelle and Dimitri Vittas, 1999, Annuities Markets in Comparative Per-spective: Do Consumers Get Their Money’s Worth?, World Bank.
Miron, Jeffrey A. and David N. Weil, 1997, The Genesis and Evolution of Social Security, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #5949.
Mitchell, Olivia S., James M. Poterba and Mark J. Warshawsky, 2000, New Evidence on the Money’s Worth of Individual Annuities, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #6002.
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