台灣地區行動電話之普及率已超越96％（至民國90年底），業者間之競爭亦日趨劇烈，因之，對電信業者、消費者而言，有關行動電話消費行為的深入瞭解相當重要。本研究試圖探討消費者在選擇電信業者、費率方案與使用量等決策間之關係，以便了解消費者選擇行動電話之特性，並透過需求模式的模擬評估各種經營策略之績效，以及目前各業者所提出的各種促銷方案之實施效果，並經由適當的市場區隔進一步提供各業者針對不同群體研擬不同促銷方案之建議。由於本研究牽涉間斷性（業者、費率方案選擇）與連續性（通話量需求）之決策行為，故本研究方法將由同一效用函數建立間斷性及連續性之混合需求模型。
本研究採用顯示性偏好(RP)及敘述性偏好法(SP)設計問卷面談及電話輔助訪談所得資料。調查問卷之中有利用敘述性偏好法，設計出決策虛擬情境，以補足顯示性偏好數據解釋變異不足之處，以確實掌握消費者的電信業者選擇行為。電信業者選擇模式結果顯示「品牌與收訊品質」、「網內親友比例」、「網內互打費率折扣」、「送通話費」、「手機優惠」等變數皆顯著影響消費者對行動電話業者之選擇行為。而在持有數量、費率方案、與行動電話使用量混合需求模式校估結果方面，使用量需求函數係假設為指數型態，「個人剩餘所得」、「通話費率」、「免費通話費」、「行動電話單位使用成本」等變數顯著影響消費者之使用量需求；而間斷性選擇的部分，費率方案選擇模式結果顯示出「通話成本」、「通話費率」、「個人所得」等變數顯著影響消費者選擇費率方案之行為，模式中亦顯示「聯絡對象以客戶居多」之消費者會較傾向選擇高用量的費率方案與持有2支行動電話。至於，電信業者可利用「降低通話費率」或是「增加免費通話費」的策略增加用戶數，除此之外，尚可增加用戶每月行動電話使用量，達到一舉兩得之效。

The penetration rate of the cellular phone in Taiwan has been over 96%, and the cellular phone market is becoming more and more competitive. Therefore, it would be very important to understand the consumption behavior of cellular phone for the consumer, service provider as well as the regulatory agent. This study tries to investigate the interrelationship among the choice of the Cellular Corporation, service rate plans and the amount of usage. Including the above mentioned three choice dimensions, the demand model for the cellular phone service is developed and also used, by market segmentation and through demand elasticity and sensitivity analysis, to simulate the performance of the managerial strategies including those currently proposed by the providers. Since the choice we are concerned including the discrete choice (cellular corp., service rate plans) and the continuous choice (the amount of usage), our study is to set up an utility function, and, from utility maximization, to derive a set of discrete and continuous choice demand model for cellular phone. Discrete and continuous choice models will be formulated as switch regression framework. So in order to examine the practical choice behavior of consumer, we applied specially two model: (1) The first we collected consumers’ revealed preference (RP) data and stated preference (SP) data through field questionnaire survey, and estimated Cellular Corp. choice models. (2) The second model is a utility-consistent, combined discrete choice and continuous demand model (discrete/continuous demand model) assessing mobile phone usage due to consumer’s choice of phone ownership and rate plans.
Empirical analysis was done for the Tainan Area based on a disaggregate data set. The empirical results showed that: (1) the variables which significantly influenced the Cellular Corp. choice decision of consumer were branding and quality, percentage of intra-network-friends, discount of intra-network-rate, free usage fee, and discount of mobile phone. (2) The usage demand model of a discrete/continuous demand model is assumed exponential type, and the variables, which significantly influenced the usage demand model, were personal income, usage rate, free usage fee, and a unit of usage cost. (3) On the other hand, the variables, which significantly influenced the nest logit (NL) model of mobile phone ownership and rate plans, were usage cost, usage rate, user’s occupation, and personal income. By above conclusion, Cellular Corp. can use reduce-usage-rate strategy or increase-free-usage-fee strategy to increase the number of users and to increase user’s usage.

中文摘要
英文摘要
誌謝
目錄I
圖表目錄IV
第一章緒論1
1-1.研究背景與動機………………………………………..……………1
1-2.研究目的………………………………………………..……………5
1-3.研究範圍與限制………………………………………..……………5
1-4.研究方法與內容………………………………………..……………5
1-5.研究流程………………………………………………..……………7
第二章文獻回顧9
2-1.電信需求及選擇行為理論…………………………………...……..9
2-2.總體行動電話需求之相關研究……………………………………10
2-3.行動電話選擇行為之研究…………………………………………10
2-4.間斷性及連續性混合需求模型之相關研究………………………14
2-5.綜合評析……………………………………………………………19
第三章研究方法21
3-1.間斷性/連續性選擇之基本概念…………………………………...21
3-2.自我選擇模式與間斷性/連續性選擇模式………………………...21
3-3.消費者效用最大化理論架構間斷性/連續性選擇模式…………...24
3-3.1間接效用函數之設定……………………………………………….24
3-3.2選擇偏誤之修正…………………………………………………….32
3-3.3間斷性/連續性選擇模式之校估方式………………………………36
3-4.模式架構與基本架設………………………………………………37
3-5.間斷性選擇集合與可選方案集合之界定…………………………39
3-6.彈性推導……………………………………………………………40
第四章資料分析43
4-1.資料蒐集與問卷設計………………………………………………43
4-1.1資料蒐集…………………………………………………………….43
4-1.2問卷設計…………………………………………………………….43
4-2.資料分析……………………………………………………………47
4-2.1行動電話持有與社經特性分析…………………………………….48
4-2.2行動電話業者與費率方案選擇行為分析……………………….…52
4-2.3選擇因素之分析…………………………………………………….56
4-2.4選擇因素指標之因素分析………………………………………….58
4-2.5消費者選擇行為之集群分析……………………………………….59
第五章實證分析63
5-1.實證分析程序說明…………………………………………………63
5-2.行動電話門號業者選擇模式………………………………………64
5-3.行動電話持有數量、費率方案、與使用量之間斷/連續混合模式……72
5-4.彈性分析…………………………………………………….……...81
5-5.敏感度分析與政策模擬……………………………..……………..85
第六章結論與建議89
6-1.結論…………………………………………………………………89
6-2.建議…………………………………………………………………91
6-2.1對電信業者之建議………………………………………………….91
6-2.2對後續研究之建議………………………………………………….92
參考文獻95
附錄
附錄一、台灣行動電信市場概況Ⅰ
附錄二、問卷內容Ⅴ

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