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研究生:鄭玉琴
研究生(外文):Yu-Chin Cheng
論文名稱:國際合資對長期營運績效之研究
論文名稱(外文):International Joint Venture as Signals for Earnings and Risk Change
指導教授:張紹基張紹基引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shao-Chi Chang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:國際企業研究所碩博士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:50
中文關鍵詞:長期營運績效長期營運風險國際合資
外文關鍵詞:international joint venturelong-term performance and long-term risk
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:11
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  • 下載下載:284
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:3
歷年來,對於合資,學者的研究重點在於短期宣告效果,國內合資絕大多數得到正向且顯著異常報酬,國際合資卻得到較不一致的結果,有部份學者獲得了不顯著甚至是負向顯著的異常報酬。這表示投資人對於國際合資的長期績效表現,較不具信心,我們有興趣是,國際合資所帶來的長期影響,是哪一部份受到質疑?

因此,我們以美國從1989至1998年間從事國際合資的公司做實證,觀察其長期績效及風險影響,發現合資後,宣告公司和同業相比,現金流量會顯者增加,且至少持續三年,而合資後三年持有期間報酬也顯著高於同產業,因此,由這二個結果,我們認為進行國際合資會改善長期營運績效。至於在風險,我們首先觀察權益風險(Equity Betas),宣告公司雖然有下降的趨勢,但和同業相比後,並不顯著,因此,研判同業的權益風險應該也有下降的趨勢。一般而言,權益風險降低的原因,有可能是公司營運風險降低也有是可能負債比率的下降,因此為了求證宣告公司風險降低的真正原因,我們進一步觀察了公司的資產風險(Asset Betas)及負債比率(Leverage),結果發現,在合資後,宣告公司的資產風險並沒有顯著差異,而負債比率卻有顯著下降的情況,因此,判定公司權益風險的降低是來自負債比率的改變,而非營運風險降低。

由實證結果得知,公司合資後,長期績效會顯著改善,但營運風險卻沒有顯著改變。因此,我們認為國際合資短期宣告之所以會有部份學者無法獲得顯著正向異常報酬或甚至有負的顯著結果,原因是投資人質疑長期合資對風險的影響,至於風險無法如預期降低,可能是導因於國際合資較高的協調成本及在移轉知識、技術時可能會侵蝕本身的競爭優勢的影響。因此,公司在進行國際合資時,除了長期營運績效外,也應該考量風險是否真的能降低。
From previous studies of joint venture, we find an interesting phenomenon. In short-term market reaction, investors had less confidence in international joint venture than domestic joint venture. It seemed investors don’t believe the benefit of improved performance and decreased risk that come from joint venture. Therefore, we want to identify which part of the benefits was doubted and lead to the market reaction.

Our samples are constituted of American international joint ventures from 1989 to 1998. We observe the change of long-term performance and risk. The evaluation of long-term performance includes changes in cash flow and stock return. As to risk, we take the changes in equity betas, leverage and asset betas as the measurements. The empirical results show that long-term cash flow will increase within three years after joint venture. Three years stock return will be higher than that of the industry. However, we have no significant results in change of risk.

Our results can exactly explain the short-term market reaction. The reason why investors had less confidence is that they don’t believe risk will decrease after joint venture. Compared to domestic joint venture, international joint venture need higher coordination costs. Partners coming from different countries with different cultures may need a lot of time and cost to communicate with each other. Therefore, the benefit of joint venture will be eroded. As a result, we suggest that companies should take it into consideration when they are forming a joint venture because the risk may not decrease as expected.
目錄

第壹章 緒論 …………………………………………………………… 1
第一節 前言 ……………………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究動機 ………………………………………………… 2
第三節 研究目的 ………………………………………………… 4
第四節 論文結構 ………………………………………………… 5

第貳章 文獻回顧 ……………………………………………………… 6
第一節 合資的基本概念 ………………………………………… 6
第二節 合資的實證文獻 ………………………………………… 15

第參章 研究設計 ……………………………………………………… 23
第一節 資料來源 ………………………………………………… 23
第二節 研究方法 ………………………………………………… 24

第肆章 研究結果 ……………………………………………………… 30
第一節 美國國際合資之樣本統計資料 ………………………… 30
第二節 國際合資與營運績效 …………………………………… 31
第三節 國際合資與股價報酬 …………………………………… 34
第四節 國際合資與風險 ………………………………………… 36
第五節 推論與小結 ……………………………………………… 44

第伍章 結論與建議 …………………………………………………… 46
第一節 結論 ……………………………………………………… 46
第二節 後續研究建議 …………………………………………… 47

參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………49


表次索引



表2-1 美國國內合資實證結果……………………………………………17
表2-2 美國國際合資實證結果……………………………………………21
表4-1 宣告公司年度分配…………………………………………………31
表4-2 宣告公司前後三年現金流量報酬…………………………………33
表4-3 宣告公司前後三年持有期間報酬…………………………………35
表4-4 宣告公司前後三年Equity Betas…………………………………38
表4-5 宣告公司前後三年Asset Bets……………………………………40
表4-6 宣告公司前後三年舉債程度………………………………………43
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