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研究生:謝尚伯
研究生(外文):Shang-po Hsieh
論文名稱:從政治機會結構論蘇哈托政權轉移
指導教授:李美賢李美賢引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立暨南國際大學
系所名稱:東南亞研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:區域研究學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2001
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:170
中文關鍵詞:政治機會結構論蘇哈托
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蘇哈托是個威權統治者,而他所建立的新秩序政權共維持長達三十一年,是印尼自獨立建國以來壽命最長的一個。自一九六七年銜命擔任代理總統的職務開始,蘇哈托即已逐漸建立起他的威權政體,於執政期間,他共經歷六次總統選舉,並屢次獲得作為最高立法機關的人民協商議會一致支持,這項支持賦予蘇哈托統治的正當性,而這也是蘇哈托得以在位長達三十餘年的原因之一。然而,於他第六次接受人民協商議會任命的兩個月後,蘇哈托卻突然於一九九八年五月二十一日宣佈辭職,這項決定影響深遠並且引起學者們的注意。每位學者的分析角度皆有所不同,有的學者專注於從經濟層面提出解釋,有的學者則探討外力介入的可能性,精英層次的分析也為部分學者所採用,而不同於這些層次所提出的解釋,本論文則是從政治機會結構論對蘇哈托政權的轉移提出理論性的分析。
政治機會結構論包含四個固有的面向,分別是政治參與途徑的增加與否、政治聯盟關係是否穩定、精英內部是否存在分歧及是否有具影響力的聯盟形成等四個。根據該理論的觀點,這四個面向皆是政權得以建立的基礎,而個別面向產生轉變正是象徵著政權的脆弱度提高,這也是說,當這四個面向同時產生轉變則正意味著這政權處於極度不穩定的情況,政權的延續將因此而受到影響,而本論文的論點即在於:蘇哈托政權於一九九八年時已出現政治機會結構轉變的現象,這意味該政權於當時正處於極度不穩定的情況,因而出現政權轉移的結果。

Suharto is an authoritarian ruler, and the New Order Regime he set up had last for 31 years, the longest one since Indonesia got independence. Suharto was authorized as the acting president in 1967, it was that time his regime was gradually built. During his tenure, he underwent six president campaigns and got overwhelming support from the representatives of the People’s Consultative Assembly, the most superior legislative unit in Indonesia. Such support legitimates Suharto’s authoritarian governing and acts as one reason for Suharto’s holding authority for more than 30 years! However, Suharto made a resignation speech on May 21, two months later from his reappointing by the same assembly in 1998. This speech caused profound effects to Indonesian politics and, of course, caught scholars’ attention. One explanation is on the basis of the effect of economic breakdown, resulting from the regional financial crisis in 1997. The other one just focuses on the role played by the elites, especially military and religious, during the last few days before Suharto made up his mind. Foreign intervention is as well the one cause some scholars try to figure out.
Differing from the viewpoints listed above, this dissertation just tries to make use of the Theory of Political Opportunity Structure to provide a theoretically explanatory perspective.
The Theory of Political Opportunity Structure contains four dimensions and they are The Opening up of Political Access, Unstable Alignments, Divided Elites and Influential Allies respectively. The four consistent dimensions are the basis of regime building. According to the point of the theory, as on dimension changes, the regime is more vulnerable than the one that keeps all the four dimension still. In other words, as the four dimensions change, the regime is undergoing the most dangerous situation, that will make regime more vulnerable and influence the lasting of ruler’s governing. The main argument of this thesis is that Suharto’s New Order regime was undergoing the most dangerous situation in 1998. And that’s why the regime transference occurred then.

第一章 緒論
第一節研究動機……………………………………………………………1
第二節研究背景與目的……………………………………………………2
第三節 文獻探討:解釋一九九八年印尼政權轉移的觀點…………….6
(一)美國勢力的介入與政權轉移……………………..…………………6
(二)從「學生運動」到「人民力量」………………………...……….9
(三)政治精英與政權轉移…………………………………………………11
(四)政權本質與運作………………………………………………………13
(五)綜合討論………………………………………………………………15
第四節 論文分析架構…………………………………………………….17
第五節 研究方法、範圍與限制………………………………………….19
第二章 蘇哈托政權下的政治參與
第一節 投票及集會結社自由的限制與開放………………………….21
(一)投票自由的限制與調整………………………………………………21
(二)集會結社的自由與限制………………………………………………26
第二節 資訊傳播媒介的限制與開放………………………….…………31
(一)資訊傳播媒介的限制…………………………………………………31
(二)新傳播媒介的出現……………………………………………………37
(三)平面媒體的轉變………………………………………………………40
小結…………………………………………………………………………43
第三章 精英分歧與蘇哈托政權的轉移
第一節 回教國的爭議………………………………...………………45
(一)回教國爭議的初期發展………………………………………..45
(二)回教國爭議的擴大……………………………………………………50
第二節 中央與地方的分歧……………………………………………….58
(一)分離運動出現的探討…………………………………………..61
(二)個案研究………………………………………………………………59
小結………………………………………………………………...…….78
第四章 蘇哈托政權下的政治聯盟關係變動
第一節 武裝部隊與蘇哈托…………………………………………….81
(一)獨特的武裝部隊………………………………………..………85
(二)政治聯盟關係建立的模式……………………………………………79
第二節 政治聯盟關係的鬆動…………………………………………….93
(一)Malari事件……………………………………………………………93
(二)將領集體批判的出現…………………………………………………95
(三)副總統爭議……………………………………………………………97
(四)從業集團內部的反彈…………………………………………………100
小結…………………………………………………………………………103
第五章 具影響力聯盟的形成與蘇哈托政權的轉移
第一節 具影響力聯盟形成的阻力…………………………………….105
(一)學生與Sumitro將軍合作的聯盟關係………………………….106
(二)聯盟的影響力不足……………………………………………………109
(三)蘇哈托當局於Malari事件後的因應策略……………………………111
第二節 具影響力的聯盟形成…………………………………………….113
(一)背景……………………………………………………………..113
(二)聯盟的發展狀況………………………………………………………114
小結.……………………………………………………………………...121
第六章 結論……………………………………………………………….129
參考書目……………………………………………………………………136
附錄………………………………………………………………………..162

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