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研究生:閔辰華
研究生(外文):Min, Jennifer C.H.
論文名稱:從跨文化觀點探討九二一大地震後日本和美國旅客的反應—災難事故與旅客不確定規避行為
論文名稱(外文):A Cross-cultural Comparison of Japanese and American Travelers'' Responses to the September 21st Earthquake in Taiwan— Linking Post-disaster Tourist Behavior to Uncertainty Avoidance
指導教授:黃仁宏黃仁宏引用關係
指導教授(外文):Huang, Jen-Hung
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:經營管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2001
畢業學年度:90
語文別:英文
論文頁數:140
中文關鍵詞:九二一大地震觀光業不確定規避行銷策略
外文關鍵詞:September 21st Earthquaketourism industryuncertainty avoidancemarketing strategy
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隨著全球化趨勢的日益增強,跨文化行為之探討在消費者行為研究中,已成為一熱門的議題。在眾多相關研究中,學者 Hofstede曾針對五十餘國員工加以研究,並相繼建立了五個文化構面,這五個文化構面備受學者們重視,且為許多消費者行為及行銷研究者所採用。由於觀光業有其文化、語言多樣化之特色,且其規模日益擴大中,因此,了解跨文化之旅遊行為對於觀光行銷策略的發展以及適切服務的提供,甚為重要,這也使得跨文化旅遊行為之探討在觀光旅遊管理領域中,有其重要性。然而,現行觀光旅遊管理文獻中,就跨文化旅遊行為所做的研究,仍顯不足;特別是在災難事故後,影響旅客旅遊行為甚鉅的不確定規避行為之跨文化研究,更是少見。目前,文獻上更未見研究者就重大災難事件探討不同文化地區之旅客可能的反應,和它對於這些旅客可能造成的不同衝擊,與其在旅遊人數上可能改變的情形,以及相關單位在行銷策略上應如何加以因應的深入研究。因此,本文乃嘗試以學者 Hofstede所提出五個文化構面中的不確定規避(Uncertainty Avoidance)之構面為基礎,針對來華旅客最多之日本和美國兩個不同文化之國家,以九二一大地震為例,研究地震一年後,這兩個國家旅客來華旅遊人數的增減趨勢,以之查驗災後旅客真實旅遊行為的變化,就Hofstede 所提不確定規避行為在災後跨文化的旅客之旅遊行為上加以分析,從而提出災後旅遊市場有效的行銷策略。
Hofstede的研究發現:日本為一高不確定規避之國家,也就是說當日本旅客遭遇不確定性事件或情況時,會較傾向不願意冒風險,且也較容易有明顯的不確定規避行為,他們會避免面對不確定的事物;而美國,則為一低不確定規避之文化,其旅客對於不確定事物較願意接受風險,且也較不會因為不確定性的影響而不去從事某事。本研究根據上述的理論基礎與研究發現,建立了探索災後旅客旅遊行為的概念性研究陳述,認為日本旅客在我國九二一大地震後,其恢復狀況將較美國旅客緩慢,且日本旅客的恢復情形也將比整體來華旅客的恢復狀況緩慢;相較之下,美國旅客在災後的恢復情形將較日本旅客快速,且也會比整體來華旅客恢復情況為快。
為了對上述研究假設加以驗證並深入探討災後跨文化旅客旅遊行為的變化情形,本研究在方法上採用Box & Jenkins 所提出之單變量時間數列來建構模型,並運用自民國六十八年一月至八十八年八月整體來華人數、以及來自日本和美國旅客人數之月資料,分別建立三個預測模型,而後,依據所建構的模型分別預測自九二一大地震一年後(民國八十八年九月至八十九年八月)整體、日本和美國來台旅客人數,並以預測人數與實際來台旅客人數相比較,評估地震一年後,整體來台旅客和日、美來台旅客之恢復狀況,以研究Hofstede的不確定規避之構面是否會反映在重大災難事件之旅遊人數變化上。
本研究發現:在災後旅遊人數的變化上,經過時間數列分析模型的預測值與災後實際來台人數的比較,日本旅客的恢復情形明顯地較美國旅客緩慢,且在地震後十個月其恢復狀況比整體來華旅客的恢復狀況緩慢,惟後兩個月日本旅客的恢復情形超過整體來華旅客,這也反映出政府在震後積極努力於日本市場之效果相當顯著;本研究亦顯示:美國旅客在災後的恢復情形較整體來華旅客恢復情況為快。由上述研究發現,Hofstede之不確定規避行為的不同文化效應,在災後旅遊市場上又得到印證。本研究並根據研究發現以及在九二一大地震衝擊下,台灣政府和觀光業者所迅速採取之因應措施,建立一跨文化災後行銷模型,包括:緊急處理期、復原初期、後復原期等三期,每一期針對日本和美國市場所應採取的不同行銷策略亦予提出。本研究所建構的行銷策略架構,可作為爾後遭遇重大事件有關當局在恢復自身旅遊市場以及針對日本和美國不同文化的國家,研擬行銷策略時之參考。另外,本文根據以上的研究發現,亦對政府、業者、學界及後續研究者提出相關建議。本研究的發現,除了可提供災後旅遊市場行銷策略的參酌之外,並可作為更深入了解跨國文化旅遊行為的基礎,俾能開闢一更深入且豐沃的跨文化研究領域。
With increasing globalization, studies in cross-cultural behavior have gained considerable attention in the field of consumer behavioral research. Among numerous cross-cultural studies, the most widely used is the one undertaken by Hofstede who administered a sizable number of questionnaires across more than 50 countries, examining differences in values and perceptions. He developed five dimensions which have often been adopted in the research of cross-cultural consumer behavior and marketing. The tourism industry, characterized by cultural and linguistic diversity, constitutes an international phenomenon of global consequence and is undergoing rapid expansion. Clearly, a better understanding of tourist behavior, adopting a cross-cultural perspective, has become increasingly important for marketing strategies and implications. However, the body of research dealing with these aspects of the trade is still in its infancy. In particular, cross-cultural comparison studies on tourist behavior relating to the impact of disastrous events or marketing practices in response to serious consequences are still an area that has remained largely neglected and unexamined. Thus, the purpose of this study is to employ Hofstede’s uncertainty avoidance dimension to the case of the September 21st Earthquake in 1999 in order to assess how Japanese and United States tourists’ behaviors have been affected. Furthermore, one tourism recovery model for marketing practices was built to cope with the consequences of a natural disaster in Taiwan. This was done by targeting the Japanese and US tourist markets, with the experiences from the September 21st Earthquake and the findings of this study as a basis.
According to Hofstede’s findings, Japanese were higher in uncertainty avoidance, while Americans were lower in this respect. Tourists in high uncertainty avoidance cultures tend to be risk averse, reduce uncertainty, shun ambiguity, resist change, and avoid variety. In contrast, when cultures rank low in uncertainty avoidance tendencies, tourists are more open to variety and novel pursuits, and are willing to take more risks and tolerate ambiguity. Therefore, the research propositions were developed: Japanese tourists’ rebound status will be slower than that of US and total tourist arrivals after the September 21st Earthquake. The total tourists’ rebound status will be relatively slower than that of U.S. tourists after the quake.
In order to evaluate and assess the recovery status of total inbound, Japanese and U.S. tourist arrivals in relation to the earthquake, Univariate Box-Jenkins ARIMA was used to build three models. The data adopted in this study consist of monthly aggregate visitor arrivals and numbers of tourists from Japan and the U.S. during successive months over a 20-year period (January 1979 — August 2000). Among the 260 observations of each series, the first 248 observations (January 1979 to August 1999) were utilized to build a model to forecast the total visitor arrivals as well as those from Japan and the United States respectively for the following one year period (September 1999 to August 2000). Estimated visitor arrivals were compared with actual visitor arrivals to evaluate the recovery status and examine the contention of Hofstede’s uncertainty avoidance dimension.
The results indicate clear differences in rebound status between Japanese and American visitor arrivals that are remarkably consistent with Hofstede’s conceptualization — the Japanese tended toward uncertainty avoidance more than the Americans. As well, the Japanese tourists’ rebound status is slower than that of the total tourist arrivals after the first ten months, whereas the rebound status of the US tourists is relatively more resilient than that of the total inbound arrivals. The rate of Japanese inbound arrivals surpasses the total inbound arrivals in the final two months (July and August 2000), indicating the effectiveness of heavy marketing and promotion in the Japanese market in the aftermath of the quake. Furthermore, insights derived from the experiences of the September 21st Earthquake have been combined with those obtained from the findings to develop a model for cross-cultural marketing strategies targeted at the Japanese and US markets after a tourism crisis. The model consists of three phases, namely, emergency response, early recovery and long-term recovery. The model also provides a blueprint which promises to save valuable time, energy, and other resources for tourist destinations. As well, the suggestions are proposed to guide responses to a tourism crisis for governments, the tourism industry, and academia. Finally, the results of this dissertation offer further evidence that tourist behavior is affected by national culture. It offers valuable insights into understanding cross-cultural tourist behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance, serves as a reference for tourism destinations hoping to improve marketing efforts, and provides fertile ground for further academic research on tourist behavior by taking nationality into account as a consideration.
Table of Contents
Abstract
cknowledgement
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Figures
Chapter 1. Introduction ............................1
I. Motives and Objectives of This Study.............1
II. Background ..................................5
III. Organization of the Dissertation.........7
Chapter 2. September 21st Earthquake and Related Issues.9
I. Introduction .......................................9
II. Earthquake Devastation in the Tourism Industry....10
III. Implementation of Tourism Revitalization Measures11
IV. Marketing Measurement in the Japanese Market.....16
V. Revitalizing Domestic Tourist Markets......16
Chapter 3. Literature Review and Propositions Development19
I. Japanese and American Tourists.............19
II. Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions...........22
II.1. The Definition of Culture......22
II.2. National Cultures.......................25
II.3. Hofstede’s Conceptual Framework......26
III. Uncertainty Avoidance Dimension...........32
IV. Research on Uncertainty Avoidance in Japanese
and U.S. Tourist Behavior..................35
V. Forecasting in the Tourism Industry.............39
VI. Propositions..................................42
Chapter 4. Methodology.........................45
I. Data..............................................45
II. Forecast Methods...........................46
III. Box-Jenkins Models..........................46
III.1. ARIMA Model.....................47
III.2. SARIMA Model.....................48
III.3. Residual Analysis....................49
III.4. Modeling............................51
Chapter 5. Results and Discussions...............55
I. Total Inbound Arrivals...........................55
I.1. Identification...................55
I.2. Estimation........................62
I.3. Diagnostic Checking.............63
I.4. Forecasting........................66
II. Japanese Tourist Arrivals..................68
II.1. Identification....................68
II.2. Estimation.........................74
II.3. Diagnostic Checking...................74
II.4. Forecasting........................76
III. US Tourist Arrivals........................78
III.1. Identification...................78
III.2. Estimation...........................84
III.3. Diagnostic Checking...............85
III.4. Forecasting....................90
Chapter 6. Implications of Findings..............101
I. Marketing Strategies for Japanese Tourists...101
II. Marketing Strategies for American Tourists.102
III. Initial Marketing Strategies for Disasters.103
Chapter 7. Cross-Cultural Marketing Strategies for Tourism Recovery at Travel Destinations....................107
I. Tourism Recovery Model........................109
II. Emergency Response Phase......................111
III. Early Recovery Phase.........................112
IV. Long-Term Recovery Phase...................114
Chapter 8. Conclusions............................118
I. Review of Research Plans............................118
II. Suggestions...............................120
II.1. for Government.................120
II.2. for the Tourism Industry..............120
II.3. for Academic Research...................121
III. Limitations of the Study and Recommendations for Future Study............................................122
III.1. Methods and Data................................122
III.2. Others......................................123
III.3. Further Recommendations...................123
IV. Contributions of this Study...................125
References........................................127
Vita.............................................139
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