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研究生:黃塗生
研究生(外文):Tu-Sheng Huuang
論文名稱:晶圓代工機台採購類型及採購決策要素分析
論文名稱(外文):Types and Decisions of Equipment Purchasing of Taiwan''s IC Foundries
指導教授:洪志洋洪志洋引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chih-Young Hung
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:科技管理學程碩士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:119
中文關鍵詞:晶圓代工機台採購專家訪談層別分析法AHP迴歸分析
外文關鍵詞:Taiwan IC FoundriesEquipment purchasingDecision makingAHP
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晶圓代工機台採購類型及採購決策要素分析
研究生:黃塗生 指導教授:洪志洋教授
國立交通大學科技管理研究所 碩士在職專班
摘要
在晶圓代工產業中,固定資產支出佔總支出之大宗。而機台採購支出又為資本支出中最為重要,且會影響產出之關鍵要素。本研究主要是分析關於台灣晶圓代工產業(foundry)台積電及聯電之機台採購,研究機台採購類型、機台採購決策要素、及機台採購與營收之關係,利用專家訪談,層別分析法(AHP),敘述統計,迴歸分析,得出影響機台採購之決策要素主要為景氣循環、客戶及訂單需求及機台能力,在財務需求及人力資源上並非重要之考量。本論文以此結果,論述台灣在未來晶圓代工產業的發展上,所需投注之資源及考量之要素。
關鍵字:晶圓代工、機台採購、專家訪談、層別分析法(AHP)、迴歸分析
Types and decisions of Equipment Purchasing of Taiwan’s IC Foundries
Student: Tu-Sheng Huang Advisor: Dr. Chih-Young Hung
Institute of Management of Technology
National Chiao Tung University
Abstract
For firms in the IC foundry industry, expenditures on fixed assets are almost always the largest part in their annual budgets. In turn, equipment purchasing constitutes the major element in the expenditure on fixed assets. Despites of its adverse effect on the cash flows of an IC foundry firm, the purchasing of equipment is important to the firm’s capability in terms of wafers ship-out.
The focus of this thesis is on the equipment purchasing of Taiwan’s IC foundries. Specifically, three issues are addressed. First, an analysis is made to classify the types of equipments purchased. We found that the types of equipments purchased can be classified by the following six factors: process capability, materials, product requirements, product mix, product types, and purpose. Second, a decision model of equipment purchasing is proposed. Lastly, we investigate the relationship between the revenue and the expenditure for IC foundries. Data of two of the largest foundries in Taiwan are collected and analyzed. Research methods include expert interviews, AHP, descriptive statistical analysis, and lagged regression analysis.
The results of our statistical analysis suggest that people in charge of equipment-purchasing decisions of the IC foundries in Taiwan seem to be able to anticipate and act accordingly to the business cycle of IC industry.
Keywords: Taiwan IC foundries, Equipment purchasing, Decision making, AHP
目錄
摘要…………………………………………………………………………………………i
Abstract………………………………………………….……………………………..…ii
誌謝………………………………………………………………………..………………iii
表目錄……………………………………………………………….………….…………vi
圖目錄………………………………………………………………………….…………vii
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………...……………1
1.1 研究背景………….…………………………………………………………..…1
1.2 研究動機…………….………………………………………………………..…2
1.3 研究目的……………….……………………………………………………..…3
1.4 論文架構………………….…………………………………………………..…4
1.5 研究流程…………………….………………………………………………..…5
第二章 文獻探討……………………..……………………………………………….…6
2.1 供應鏈管理……………………….…………………………………………..…6
2.1.1 供應鏈管理定義…………...……………………………………………6
2.1.2 供應鏈管理要件……………...…………………………………………7
2.1.3 供應鏈企業流程………………...………………………………………7
2.1.4 供應鏈管理綜效…………………...……………………………………8
2.1.5 VMI系統作業流程 (Vendor Managed Inventory) …...………………10
2.1.6 VMI效益……………………………………………………………..…11
2.2 財務控制與投資決策………………………………………………………….11
2.2.1 M&M理論………………………………………………………………11
2.2.2 代理理論…………………………………………………….………….13
2.2.3 資訊不對稱理論……………………………………………………….14
2.2.4 彈性理論…………………………………………………….………….15
2.2.5 彈性的分類與策略性投資…………………………………...………..16
2.2.6 資源基礎理論…………………...……………………………………..18
2.2.7 投資決策之過程……………………………………………………….19
2.2.8 影響投資決策之重要因素…………………………………………….23
2.3 景氣循環…………………………………...………………………………..…23
2.3.1 景氣循環介紹………………………………………………………….23
2.3.2景氣循環理論學派………………….…………………………………..24
2.3.3 景氣循環相關模型…………………...………………………………..25
2.3.4 融合了兩特徵的模型…………………...……………………………..27
2.3.5 台灣的景氣循環研究……………………...…………………………..28
2.4 製程與訂單組合……………………………………………………………….29
2.4.1 半導體晶圓製程特性…………...……………………………………..30
2.4.2 晶圓代工業的產業特性…………...…………………………………..30
2.4.3 晶圓製程基本加工步驟圖…………………………………………….31
2.4.4 單位瓶頸資源標準工時利潤法……...………………………………..32
2.4.5 產能規劃法………………………………………………………….....33
2.4.6 製程世代與製程類型對產品組合產能的影響……..………………..34
2.4.7 限制理論產品組合……………………………………...……………..35
2.4.8 多廠區產能支援作業……………………………………...…………..36
2.5機台採購決策展開……………………………………………………..……….37
2.5.1 機台採購決策及採購後資源需求展開…………...…………………..37
2.5.2機台採購展開後支援部門之相關作為………………………………..39
2.6資源理論與人力資源………………………………………..………………….40
2.6.1 資源理論………………………………………………………………..40
2.6.2 資源基礎理論之相關研究…………………………...………………..40
2.6.3 人力資源管理…………………………………………...……………..42
2.7 公司簡介…………………………………………………………...………..…43
2.7.1 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司簡介……………………...………..43
2.7.2 聯華電子公司簡介…………………………………………………….44
第三章 研究方法…………………………………...…………………………………..46
3.1 研究主題……………………………………………………………………..…46
3.2 研究變數……………………………………………………………………..…46
3.3 研究範圍……………………………………………………………………..…47
3.4 資料分析方法……………………………………………………………….…48
3.4.1 專家訪談法…………………………………...………………………..48
3.4.2 AHP法………………………………………….……………………….48
3.4.3 迴歸分析……………………………………….……………………….52
3.4.4 敘述性統計…………………………………….………………………52
3.5 資料來源……………………………………………………………………..…52
3.6 研究限制……………………………………………………………………..…53
第四章 研究結果……………………………………………………...………………..54
4.1 機台採購類型分析…………………………………………………………….54
4.2 機台採購決策要素分析…………………………………………..…..……….57
4.3 機台採購金額與營收關係……...……………………………………..………61
4.3.1 機台採購與營收資料……...…………………………..………………61
4.3.2 相關係數…………………………………………………..……………62
4.3.3 個別迴歸分析………………..………………………..……………….63
4.3.4 總和廻歸分析…………………..…………………………..………….69
第五章 結論與建議……………………………………..…………………..………….72
5.1 結論…………………………………………………….……………..………..72
5.1.1 機台採購類型分析…………………..……………………..………….72
5.1.2 機台採購決策要素分析……………...……………………..…………72
5.1.3 機台採購金額與營收關係…………….……………………………....74
5.2 建議………………………………………..…………………………….……..75
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………….....76
附錄一 問卷……………………………………………………………..…………...…..87
附錄二 生產企劃經理訪問………………………...…………………………………....93
附錄三 工業工程經理訪問…………………………...………………………………....97
附錄四 機台設備經理訪問…………………………….…………...………………....104
附錄五 研發專案經理訪問…………………………….……………………………....114
表目錄
表2-1 M&M理論整理….………………….…….……………………………………13
表2-2 代理衝突原因…………….……….……………………………………………14
表2-3 彈性矩陣……………………….………...………………………………….…17
表2-4 內部彈性與外部彈性……….………...…………….…………………………17
表2-5 產能規劃法…………………….….……………………………………………34
表3-1 機台採購類型量表…………………………..…………..…………….………46
表3-2 AHP評估尺度表…………………….….……………………………………49
表4-1 機台採購類型專家訪談整理………………………….………………………54
表4-2 AHP基本權重表…………………….….………………………………...……58
表4-3 AHP權重相乘加總表…………………….….……………………..……………59
表4-4 影響程度表…………………….….…………………………………....………60
表4-5 營收及機台採購對應表…………………….….………………………..……61
表4-6 機台採購與營收相關係數表…………..……………….….……………..……63
表4-7 聯電機台採購與營收同季迴歸分析…………………..….….……..…………63
表4-8 聯電機台採購領先營收2季迴歸分析…………………….….…..…………65
表4-9 台積電機台採購領先營收3季迴歸分析…………………….…...……..……66
表4-10 台積電機台採購領先營收4季迴歸分析………………………………….…68
表4-11 總合採購領先營收3季迴歸分析………………………………………..……70
圖目錄
圖1-1 研究架構 …………………………….…………………………………………5
圖2-1 VMI概念性架構…………………..…….………………………………………11
圖2-2 資源基礎理論的策略分析………….……..……………………………………19
圖2-3 投資決策過程圖…………………..……….……………………………………21
圖2-4 整體投資決策體系…………………..……….…………………………………22
圖2-5 景氣環循交互作用圖……………….………….…………………………….…25
圖2-6 晶圓製程基本加工步驟圖……....……..……………..………………………..32
圖2-7 單位瓶頸資源標準工時利潤法接單分析步驟….…….………………………33
圖3-1 機台採購決策要素分類圖…………….…...………………..………………….47
圖3-2 AHP使用步驟圖…………….…...………………………….………………….51
圖4-1 機台採購及營收比較圖……………………………...…………………………62
圖4-2 相關係數折線圖…………………………….…………..………………………63
圖4-3 聯電同季常態機率圖…………………………….………..……………………64
圖4-4 聯電同季X 變數樣本迴歸線圖………………………..…….………………65
圖4-5 聯電同季X 變數殘差圖…………………………….……..…………………65
圖4-6 聯電機台採購領先營收二季常態機率圖………………..…………….…66
圖4-7 聯電機台採購領先營收二季X 變數樣本迴歸線圖………..………………66
圖4-8 聯電機台採購領先營收二季X 變數殘差圖………………..………………66
圖4-9 台積電機台採購領先營收三季常態機率圖……………………..……………67
圖4-10 台積電機台採購領先營收三季X 變數樣本迴歸線圖………...……………68
圖4-11 台積電機台採購領先營收三季X 變數殘差圖……………………..………68
圖4-12 台積電機台採購領先營收四季常態機率圖…………………..……………69
圖4-13 台積電機台採購領先營收四季X 變數樣本迴歸線圖……………..………69
圖4-14 台積電機台採購領先營收四季X 變數殘差圖…………………..…………69
圖4-15 總和機台採購領先營收三季常態機率圖………………………..…….……71
圖4-16 總和機台採購領先營收三季X 變數樣本迴歸線圖…………………..……71
圖4-17 總和機台採購領先營收三季X 變數殘差圖………………………..………71
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