臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來，許多探究生命週期恆常所得假說﹙Life Cycle Permanent Income Hypothesis, LC-PIH﹚與實証結果衝突之相關研究，已凸顯預防性儲蓄﹙precautionary savings﹚、信用限制﹙credit constraints﹚與負債對經濟個體消費行為影響的重要性，雖然如此，諸多的迷思和疑團仍有待進一步的釐清。Deaton﹙1992﹚指出，預防性儲蓄動機會因信用限制而加強；許多學者亦指出信用限制對預防性儲蓄有顯著的影響﹙Jappelli & Pagano, 1994; Xu, 1995; Merrigan & Normandin, 1996; Kazarosian, 1997; Yieh & Chen, 2000; Liu, 2001﹚；就負債與信用限制間的關係而言，許多研究均指出負債與信用限制確實存在著交互作用﹙葉凱莉與喬友慶，2000; Cox & Jappelli, 1993；Duca & Rosenthal, 1993；Guell & Burkett, 1994﹚。
雖然有相當之文獻探討其兩兩間之關係，但未有一研究針對此三者的互動進行分析。本研究的目的乃是對預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債三者之因果關係進行了解，以1998年美國消費者調查資料庫為樣本來源，並透過結構方程模型的建立，試圖完整探討預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債間的交互影響。
研究發現，預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債間存在交互關係，其中，預防性儲蓄對信用限制有負向的直接影響，並透過負債，對信用限制有負向的間接影響；信用限制對預防性儲蓄有負向的間接影響；信用限制對負債有負向的直接影響；預防性儲蓄對負債有負向的直接影響；負債對預防性儲蓄有正向的直接影響；負債對信用限制有正向的直接影響。

Among the possible reasons, precautionary savings and credit constraints have been pointed out as two critical determinants for doubting the general applicability of the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis (LC-PIH). Further, LC-PIH assumes consumers are able to obtain the credit they want in the perfect capital market. In fact, however, consumers’ actual debts are lower than desired. Consequently, debt is one of paradoxes between empirical evidences and theory.
Researchers founded that credit constraints provide a motive for holding precautionary assets. Studies concluded that debts interact with borrowing constraints. Although researchers have put lots of effort to study the issue of precautionary savings, credit constraints and debt respectively, not much research has been done to examine the causal relationship among these factors. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship among precautionary savings, credit constraints and debt by developing a structural equation model.
The sample of this study is from the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). Results show that interaction exists between precautionary savings, credit constraints and debts. Accumulating more assets for precaution will reduce the probability of being credit constrained. Credit constraints affect precautionary savings indirectly through debt. Credit constraints have a direct negative impact on debt. The more precautionary savings, the lower level of debts. Debts have a positive impact on precautionary savings and credit constraints.

第一章 緒論………………………………………………………. 1
第一節 研究動機………………………………………………….. 1
第二節 研究目的………………………………………………….. 3
第三節 論文架構………………………………………………….. 4
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………… 5
第一節 生命週期恆常所得假說………………………………….. 5
第二節 預防性儲蓄……………………………………………….. 7
第三節 信用限制………………………………………………….. 9
第四節 負債……………………………………………………….. 11
第五節 預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債…………………………… 14
第三章 研究方法………………………………………………… 18
第一節 資料來源…………………………………………………… 18
第二節 計量模型─結構方程式模型﹙SEM﹚……………………… 19
第三節 變數的定義與衡量方式…………………………………… 25
第四章 實証結果………………………………………………….. 29
第一節 資料分析…………………………………………………… 29
第二節 模型適配度檢定…………………………………………… 33
第三節 結構方程式模型分析結果………………………………… 34
第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………….. 45
第一節 結論與討論………………………………………………… 45
第二節 建議………………………………………………………… 52
參考文獻………………………………………………………………... 55
附錄……………………………………………………………………… 60
附錄1：SCF問卷內容說明……………………………………………… 60
附錄2：相關矩陣………………………………………………………… 66

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