(54.236.58.220) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/03/06 22:38
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果

詳目顯示:::

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:張莉玲
論文名稱:預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債
論文名稱(外文):Precautionary Savings, Credit Constraints, and Debts
指導教授:葉凱莉葉凱莉引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立彰化師範大學
系所名稱:商業教育學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:67
中文關鍵詞:預防性儲蓄信用限制負債結構方程模型
外文關鍵詞:precautionary savingscredit constraintsdebtstructural equation model
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:463
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:127
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
近年來,許多探究生命週期恆常所得假說﹙Life Cycle Permanent Income Hypothesis, LC-PIH﹚與實証結果衝突之相關研究,已凸顯預防性儲蓄﹙precautionary savings﹚、信用限制﹙credit constraints﹚與負債對經濟個體消費行為影響的重要性,雖然如此,諸多的迷思和疑團仍有待進一步的釐清。Deaton﹙1992﹚指出,預防性儲蓄動機會因信用限制而加強;許多學者亦指出信用限制對預防性儲蓄有顯著的影響﹙Jappelli & Pagano, 1994; Xu, 1995; Merrigan & Normandin, 1996; Kazarosian, 1997; Yieh & Chen, 2000; Liu, 2001﹚;就負債與信用限制間的關係而言,許多研究均指出負債與信用限制確實存在著交互作用﹙葉凱莉與喬友慶,2000; Cox & Jappelli, 1993;Duca & Rosenthal, 1993;Guell & Burkett, 1994﹚。
雖然有相當之文獻探討其兩兩間之關係,但未有一研究針對此三者的互動進行分析。本研究的目的乃是對預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債三者之因果關係進行了解,以1998年美國消費者調查資料庫為樣本來源,並透過結構方程模型的建立,試圖完整探討預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債間的交互影響。
研究發現,預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債間存在交互關係,其中,預防性儲蓄對信用限制有負向的直接影響,並透過負債,對信用限制有負向的間接影響;信用限制對預防性儲蓄有負向的間接影響;信用限制對負債有負向的直接影響;預防性儲蓄對負債有負向的直接影響;負債對預防性儲蓄有正向的直接影響;負債對信用限制有正向的直接影響。

Among the possible reasons, precautionary savings and credit constraints have been pointed out as two critical determinants for doubting the general applicability of the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis (LC-PIH). Further, LC-PIH assumes consumers are able to obtain the credit they want in the perfect capital market. In fact, however, consumers’ actual debts are lower than desired. Consequently, debt is one of paradoxes between empirical evidences and theory.
Researchers founded that credit constraints provide a motive for holding precautionary assets. Studies concluded that debts interact with borrowing constraints. Although researchers have put lots of effort to study the issue of precautionary savings, credit constraints and debt respectively, not much research has been done to examine the causal relationship among these factors. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship among precautionary savings, credit constraints and debt by developing a structural equation model.
The sample of this study is from the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). Results show that interaction exists between precautionary savings, credit constraints and debts. Accumulating more assets for precaution will reduce the probability of being credit constrained. Credit constraints affect precautionary savings indirectly through debt. Credit constraints have a direct negative impact on debt. The more precautionary savings, the lower level of debts. Debts have a positive impact on precautionary savings and credit constraints.

第一章 緒論………………………………………………………. 1
第一節 研究動機………………………………………………….. 1
第二節 研究目的………………………………………………….. 3
第三節 論文架構………………………………………………….. 4
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………… 5
第一節 生命週期恆常所得假說………………………………….. 5
第二節 預防性儲蓄……………………………………………….. 7
第三節 信用限制………………………………………………….. 9
第四節 負債……………………………………………………….. 11
第五節 預防性儲蓄、信用限制與負債…………………………… 14
第三章 研究方法………………………………………………… 18
第一節 資料來源…………………………………………………… 18
第二節 計量模型─結構方程式模型﹙SEM﹚……………………… 19
第三節 變數的定義與衡量方式…………………………………… 25
第四章 實証結果………………………………………………….. 29
第一節 資料分析…………………………………………………… 29
第二節 模型適配度檢定…………………………………………… 33
第三節 結構方程式模型分析結果………………………………… 34
第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………….. 45
第一節 結論與討論………………………………………………… 45
第二節 建議………………………………………………………… 52
參考文獻………………………………………………………………... 55
附錄……………………………………………………………………… 60
附錄1:SCF問卷內容說明……………………………………………… 60
附錄2:相關矩陣………………………………………………………… 66
中文部份
1. 江哲光、侯傑泰﹙1997﹚“應用結構方程模式之問題和謬誤",教育學報,第25卷,第1期,頁45-61。
2. 林清山(1984)“「線性結構關係」(LISREL)電腦程式的理論與應用",中國測驗學會測驗年刊,第31輯,頁149-164。
3. 陳正昌、程炳林(1994)“SPSS、SAS、BMDP統計軟體在多變量統計上的應用",台北,五南。
4. 陳順宇(1998),“多變量分析",台北,華泰。
5. 陳靜瑤(1999)“消費者預防性儲蓄行為之探討",彰化師範大學商業教育所碩士論文。
6. 葉凱莉﹙1998﹚“臺灣消費者的借債行為",國科會專題研究計畫 NSC87-2415-H-018-001。
7. 葉凱莉、邱麗卿﹙2001﹚“消費者預防性儲蓄行為─理想與實際之差異",第二屆管理學域學術研討會。
8. 葉凱莉、邱麗卿﹙2002﹚“消費者負債預警模式之建立",第八屆商業教育國際學術論文研討會。
9. 葉凱莉與喬友慶(2000)“臺灣消費者負債因素之探討",臺灣銀行季刊,第51卷,第1期,頁164-178。
10. 葉凱莉、游淑妃﹙2002﹚“臺灣家計單位儲蓄行為之決定因素─不同世代之比較",第三屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會。
英文部份
1. Abel, A. B. (1985) “Precautionary saving and accidental bequests,” The American Economic Review, 75(4): 777-791.
2. Bacchetta, P. and Stefan Gerlach (1997) “Consumption and credit constraints: international evidence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(2): 207-238.
3. Caballero, R. J. (1991) “Earnings uncertainty and aggregate wealth accumulation,” American Economic Review, 81(4): 859-871.
4. Carroll, C. D. and Andrew A. Samwick (1997) “How important is precautionary saving?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(3): 410-419.
5. Carroll, C. D. and Andrew A. Samwick (1998) “The Nature of Precautionary Wealth,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(1): 41-72.
6. Cox, D. and Tullio Jappelli (1993) “The effect of borrowing constraints on consumer liabilities,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 25(2): 198-213.
7. Crook, J. (1996) “Credit constraints and US household,” Applied Financial Economics, 6(6): 477-485.
8. Crook, J. (1999) “Who is discouraged from applying for credit?” Economics Letters, 65: 165-172.
9. Dardanoni, V. (1991) “Precautionary savings under income uncertainty: a cross-sectional analysis,” Applied Economics, 23: 153-160.
10. Deaton, A. (1991) “Saving and liquidity constraints,” Econometrica, 59: 1221-1248.
11. Deaton, A. (1992) “Understanding consumption,” Oxford and New York, Oxford University Press.
12. Duca, J. V. and Stuart S. Rosenthal (1993) “Borrowing constraints, household debt, and racial discrimination in loan markets,” Journal of Financial Intermediation, 3: 77-103
13. Fissel, G. S. and Tillio Jappelli (1990) “Do liquidity constraints vary over time? Evidence from Survey and Panel Data,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 22(2): 253-262.
14. Guell, R. C. and Paul Burkett (1994) “The interdependence of household credit constraints, assets and debts: a two-stage cross-section analysis,” Applied Financial Economics, 4(5): 329-344
15. Guiso, L., Tullio Jappilli and Danieli Terlizzese (1992) “Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 30(2): 307-337.
16. Hall, R. E. (1978) “Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence,” The Journal of Political Economy, 86(6): 971-987.
17. Hayashi, F. (1982) “The permanent income hypothesis: estimation and testing by instrumental variables,” Journal of Political Economy, 90(5): 895-916.
18. Hayashi, F. (1985) “The effect of liquidity constraints on consumption: a cross-sectional analysis” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(1): 183-207.
19. Horioka, C. Y. and Wako Watanabe (1997) “Why Do People Save? A Micro-Analysis of Motives for Household Saving in Japan,” The Economic Journal, 107(442): 537-553.
20. Jappelli, T. and Marco Pagano (1989) “Consumption and capital market imperfections: an international comparison,” The American Economic Review, 79(5): 1088-1105.
21. Jappelli, T. (1990) “Who is credit constraint in the U.S. economy?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105: 219-234.
22. Jappelli, T. and Marco Pagano (1994) “Saving, growth, and liquidity constraints,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(1): 83-110.
23. Jöreskog, Karl G. (2001) “Analysis of ordinal variables 2: Cross-sectional data,” http://www.ssicentral.com/lisrel/column8.htm.
24. Jöreskog, Karl G. & Dag Sörbom (1993) “PRELIS 2: User’s reference guide,” Chicago, IL: Scientific Software International, Inc.
25. Jöreskog, Karl G. & Dag Sörbom (1996) “LISREL 8: User’s reference guide,” Chicago, IL: Scientific Software International, Inc.
26. Kazarosian, M. (1997) “Precautionary savings─a panel study,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2): 241-247.
27. Kennickell, A. B., Martha Starr-McCluer, Brian J. Suratte (2000) “Recent changes in U.S. family finances: Results from the 1998 survey of consumer finances,” Federal Reserve Bulletin, 86: 1-29.
28. Lea, S. E.G., Paul Webley and Catherine M. Walker (1995) “Psychological factors in consumer debt: money management, economic socialization, and credit use,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 16: 681-701.
29. Liu, Yu-Lun (2001) “Wealth accumulation under income uncertainty: the cohort evidence in Taiwan,” Master’s Thesis for National Tsing Hua University, Department of Economics.
30. Long, J. S. (1983) “Covariance structure models: an introduction to LISREL,” CA: SAGE.
31. Lusardi, A. (1998) “On the importance of the precautionary saving motive,” American Economic Review, 88(2): 449-453.
32. Merrigan, P. and Michel Normandin (1996) “Precautionary saving motives: an assessment from UK time series of cross-sections,” The Economic Journal, 106: 1193-1208.
33. Skinner, J. (1988) “Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22: 237-255.
34. Xu, X. (1995) “Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: a decomposition,” International Economic Review, 36(3): 675-690.
35. Yieh, K. and C. Y. Chen (1999) “Consumers’ precautionary saving behavior in Taiwan,” Proceedings of the 5th Business Education Conference, 77-89.
36. Yieh, K. & C. Y. Chen (2000) “Desired precautionary savings in the U.S,” Consumer Interests Annul, 46: 49-54.
37. Zeldes, S. P. (1989) “Consumption and liquidity constraints: an empirical investigation,” Journal of Political Economy, 97(2): 305-347.
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔