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研究生:倪孔光
研究生(外文):Kung-Kuang, Ni
論文名稱:動態衝突分析在互惠合作協商階段之研究─以中鋼矽晶圓材料合資案為例
論文名稱(外文):A Research of Dynamic Conflict Analysis on the Offset Negotiation Stage─An Application for the Joint Venture Case of CSC Silicon Wafer Materials
指導教授:田墨忠田墨忠引用關係鄭定洲鄭定洲引用關係
指導教授(外文):Mo-Chung, TienDing-Chou, Cheng
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國防管理學院
系所名稱:資源管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:100
中文關鍵詞:互惠合作相對貿易協商靜態衝突分析動態衝突分析轉移矩陣
外文關鍵詞:OffsetCountertradeNegotiationStatic conflict analysisDynamic conflict analysisTransition matrix
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互惠合作起源於國防採購,各國政府在涉及軍事裝備、航太產品,以及大宗、高價項目採購時,都會要求補償交易,或互惠合作,並將之列入合約協商時的一部份,而這種具補償性質的交易均可運用在商業或軍事上。然而,不論相對貿易或互惠合作,所有的承諾是否實現,以及其最終價值為何,都須取決於協商過程。協商是一種基本的社會過程,用以解決衝突,並以各種不同的背景發生於我們的工作及個人生活,是一種高度複雜的社會行為。
「衝突」乃因當事人追求不同之目標,而處於敵對之狀態;事實上,只要有人類的互動,不論是個人或群體,衝突幾乎是無可避免的。動態衝突分析衍生於靜態衝突分析,係將衝突視為一種動態過程,在此過程的某一時刻,均存在若干狀態,即事件的結局,衝突中的某一位局中人在此時刻將認為從某個狀態向另一個狀態轉移會獲致更佳的結果,由此構成狀態轉移矩陣,並藉此求出衝突事件的發展趨勢與最終結果。協商過程一般包含多個目標與多個決策者,彼此既具有利益的衝突,又存在著互相讓步和達成某個協議的可能,所以協商活動應屬於一種理性支配且具衝突特性的決策問題,本研究即嘗試將動態衝突分析方法導入互惠合作協商過程,以提供協商決策者最佳之決策參考。
Offset is origin of defense procurements, usually when these procurements involve military equipment, aeronautical products, and similarly related large-scale, high priced items, most nation governments often require compensation package, or offset, as part of contract negotiations for these large purchases. These compensative transactions can use in commercial and military both fields. But, whether all the promises will materialize and what the eventual value of the countertrade or offset deals will be hinged critically on the negotiation process. We examine negotiating as a basic social process and it is used to resolve conflict, this process is emerged from many different situations, works, and everyday activities. Negotiation is a highly complex social activity.
A “conflict” is a situation in which there is a condition of opposition, and parties with opposing goals affect one another. In fact, conflict is virtually inevitable whenever humans interact, either individually or in groups. Dynamic conflict analysis is derived from static conflict analysis, and viewed a conflict situation as a dynamic process. At a particular point in time during this process have a limited number of states, or called eventual outcomes, and in which participants will decide on their courses of action to gain optimally. By a state transition matrix that performs mathematical calculations will obtain the development of a conflict event and the final equilibrium. Actually, negotiation process involves multi-goals and many decision makers. Not only there are conflicts caused by some benefits between participants, but also there is a good possibility of reaching some concessions and agreements each other. Therefore, negotiation activities belong to a rational and conflicting decision problem. The purpose of this research is trying to introduce dynamic conflict analysis into negotiation process and to provide the best decision aids for the negotiation parties.
第一章 緒 論………………………………………………… 1
1.1 研究背景與動機…………………………………………… 1
1.2 研究目的…………………………………………………… 3
1.3 研究內容…………………………………………………… 4
1.4 研究方法與流程…………………………………………… 5
1.5 研究範圍及限制…………………………………………… 6
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………… 9
2.1 相對貿易…………………………………………………… 9
2.1.1 相對貿易之意義及其重要性……………………… 9
2.1.2 國際經濟結構之改變……………………………… 10
2.1.3 相對貿易之利弊…………………………………… 12
2.1.4 相對貿易之執行與管理……………………………… 14
2.2 互惠合作…………………………………………………… 16
2.2.1 互惠合作之意義及其歷史發展……………………… 16
2.2.2 互惠合作之目的……………………………………… 20
2.2.3 互惠合作之潛在動機………………………………… 21
2.2.4 互惠合作之形式……………………………………… 21
2.2.4.1 互惠合作為相對貿易的一種形式………………… 22
2.2.4.2相對貿易為互惠合作的一種形式………………… 26
2.2.4.3 互惠合作為相對貿易的軍事代名詞……………… 28
2.2.5 互惠合作之規劃與管理……………………………… 29
2.3 我國工業合作制度………………………………………… 33
2.3.1 工業合作制度之目的………………………………… 33
2.3.2 工業合作制度之演進與運作………………………… 33
2.3.3我國執行工業合作之原則…………………………… 36
2.4 協商理論…………………………………………………… 37
2.4.1 協商發生之原因……………………………………… 37
2.4.2 協商之意義…………………………………………… 38
2.4.3 協商之類型…………………………………………… 39
2.4.4 協商之階段…………………………………………… 41
2.4.5 協商過程之局中人…………………………………… 43
2.5 衝突分析…………………………………………………… 44
2.5.1 衝突之本質…………………………………………… 44
2.5.2 靜態衝突分析理論…………………………………… 46
2.5.3 靜態衝突分析之應用………………………………… 47
2.5.4 靜態衝突分析之執行過程…………………………… 47
2.5.5 古巴導彈危機之靜態衝突分析……………………… 52
2.5.6 靜態衝突分析之優缺點……………………………… 59
第三章 研究方法………………………………………………… 62
3.1 動態衝突分析方法論……………………………………… 62
3.2 動態衝突分析方法………………………………………… 62
3.3 全局狀態轉移矩陣收斂條件之探討……………………… 66
3.4 動態衝突分析之執行步驟………………………………… 67
第四章 個案分析………………………………………………… 74
4.1 背景說明…………………………………………………… 74
4.1.1 緣起…………………………………………………… 74
4.1.2 全球市場……………………………………………… 75
4.1.3 中日雙方之協商策略………………………………… 76
4.2 建模………………………………………………………… 78
4.2.1 時間點的選擇………………………………………… 78
4.2.2 確定局中人…………………………………………… 78
4.2.3 確定行動與結局……………………………………… 78
4.2.4 計算結果……………………………………………… 80
4.2.5 結果分析……………………………………………… 80
4.2.6 矩陣收斂探討………………………………………… 86
4.3 協商過程分析……………………………………………… 86
第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………… 89
5.1 結論………………………………………………… 89
5.2 建議………………………………………………… 91
參考文獻…………………………………………………………… 92
中文部份…………………………………………………… 92
英文部份…………………………………………………… 94
附 錄…………………………………………………………… 一
作者簡介
圖1-1 研究流程圖……………………………………………………… 7
圖2-1 企業國際化方法架構…………………………………………… 13
圖2-2 相對貿易執行模式……………………………………………… 15
圖2-3 有效的相對貿易管理程序……………………………………… 17
圖2-4 相對貿易形式分類圖…………………………………………… 27
圖2-5 互惠合作與相對貿易形式……………………………………… 30
圖2-6 互惠合作規劃與實施程序……………………………………… 31
圖2-7 互惠合作程序圖………………………………………………… 32
圖2-8 我國工業合作組織架構與任務執掌…………………………… 35
圖2-9 雙邊協商的多階段模式………………………………………… 42
圖2-10 安定性分析流程圖…………………………………………… 51
圖3-1 狀態轉移機率關係圖……………………………………… 65
表2-1 相對貿易之潛在動機…………………………………………… 22
表2-2 相對貿易的形式………………………………………………… 23
表2-3 我國工業合作計畫項目………………………………………… 34
表2-4 分配型協商與整合型協商之比較……………………………… 40
表2-5 四種風格類型協商之比較……………………………………… 40
表2-6 其它類型協商之比較…………………………………………… 41
表2-7 靜態衝突分析之應用…………………………………………… 48
表2-8 古巴導彈危機中之局中人、選擇方案與結局………………… 54
表2-9 美國之偏好次序………………………………………………… 56
表2-10 蘇聯之偏好次序……………………………………………… 56
表2-11 安定性分析表………………………………………………… 57
表3-1 古巴導彈危機中可行結局…………………………………… 68
表3-2 美國之個體狀態轉移矩陣…………………………………… 68
表3-3 蘇聯之個體狀態轉移矩陣…………………………………… 70
表3-4 全局狀態轉移矩陣…………………………………………… 71
表3-5 古巴導彈危機求解過程……………………………………… 72
表4-1 政府與三菱集團合資案協商之可行結局…………………… 79
表4-2 三菱集團之個體狀態轉移矩陣……………………………… 81
表4-3 我國政府之個體狀態轉移矩陣………………………………… 82
表4-4 全局狀態轉移矩陣……………………………………………… 83
表4-5 中日協商求解過程……………………………………………… 84
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