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研究生:郭昆崇
研究生(外文):Kun-Tsung Kuo
論文名稱:集中化序列投資最佳模式之研究-以軍民通用科技為例
論文名稱(外文):The Optimization of a Centralized Sequential Investment Problem-The Case of the Dual-Use Technology
指導教授:張正昌張正昌引用關係鄭定洲鄭定洲引用關係
指導教授(外文):Cheng-Chang ChangDing-Chou Cheng
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國防管理學院
系所名稱:國防決策科學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:綜合社會及行為科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:57
中文關鍵詞:集中化序列投資策略路徑效能序列效能區位特徵影響基因演算法
外文關鍵詞:centralized sequential investment strategypath effectivenesssequential effectivenessregional characteristic effectgenetic algorithms
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在有效維持國防研發能量及不與民爭利的前提下,本研究提出以拓展「軍民通用科技」之最終產品或服務為基礎的跨國投資公司,進行國際商業投資,並且採取「集中化序列投資策略」(Centralized Sequential Investment Strategy, CSIS)做為進軍國際市場的主要策略考量。由於受到全球經濟不景氣的影響,各計劃投資區域具有緊密連結之互動性,其達到預期營運報酬的時間,通常受到前面已投資區域的影響,故本研究首先假設「區位特徵」為影響各計劃投資區域達到預期營運報酬的主要影響因子,再藉由考慮區位特徵影響具線性關係與遺忘性質,並導入路徑效能與序列效能的概念,建構能在最短時間內完成「各計劃投資區域皆達預期營運報酬」之無循環有向路徑的最佳化模式。本研究特別藉由複雜度分析,說明使用傳統解法之困難,故提出以結合基因演算法為基礎之演算流程,加以合理之參數估計方法,輔以範例說明此模式最終之效益。然而,由於本研究所提之構想,具有前瞻性與挑戰性,執行上尚需一些主客觀條件的配合,因此,特別另以章節討論之。最後為本研究之結論與未來研究方向之建議。
Aiming to effectively maintain national defense research and development capacity without sacrificing civilian interests, this research suggests that transnational investment companies that focus on developing the end products or services of dual-use technologies capture on international business investment opportunities and adopt the centralized sequential investment strategy (CSIS) to be the main strategy for entering into international market. Due to the impact of global economic downturn, the planned investment regions closely interact, which in turn contributes to the result that the preceding region usually has an influence on the time required for the following region to achieve predetermined operation rewards. Based on such a premise, this research first assumes regional characteristics is the primary factor that affects the time required for investment regions to achieve the predetermined operation rewards, then considers regional characteristics effect is a linear function and has memoryless property, introduces the concepts of path effectiveness and sequential effectiveness, and finally constructs a non-recurring directed path optimization model that enables all investment regions to achieve the predetermined operation rewards within the shortest period of time in order to enter international market efficiently and effectively. This research uses complexity analysis to explain the difficulty in conventional problem solving, and proposes an algorithm procedure based on genetic algorithm complemented by appropriate method for parameter estimation. Examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. Since the model proposed in this research is foresight and challenging, the implementation requires coordination of subjective and objective conditions, which is discussed in separate sections. The ending part summarizes the conclusions drawn from this research and recommendations on future research direction.
中文摘要…………………………………….........………………………I
英文摘要……………………………………………………………………..II
致謝……………………………………………….……………...………..IV
目錄………………………………………………………………………...VII
圖目錄………………………………………………....………………….…X
表目錄……………………………………………….……..…………...…XI
第一章  緒 論
1.1  前言…………………………….....…………………………1
1.2  研究動機與目的…………………….…………………………1
1.3  預期研究成果………………………………………………….4
1.4  研究範圍與限制……………………………………………….5
1.5  研究方法……………………………………………………….6
1.6  研究架構…………………………………………………….…7
第二章  文獻探討
2.1 跨國投資動機…………………………………………………….9
2.2 跨國投資進入策略…………………………………………....10
2.3 軍民通用科技…………………………………………………..11
第三章  模式建構與性質探討
3.1 集中化序列投資策略…………………………………………..14
3.1.1 策略概述………………………………………………........14
3.1.2 符號界定與說明………………………………………........16
3.2 名詞界定………………………………………………………..18
3.2.1 區位特徵影響…………………………………………........18
3.2.2 區位特徵影響指標……………………………………........19
3.2.3 路徑效能………………………………………………........19
3.2.4 序列效能………………………………………………........20
3.2.5 純序列效能……………………………………………........21
3.2.6 多元序列效能…………………………………………........22
3.3 模式建構與性質探討…………………………………………..23
第四章  例證與分析
4.1 演算法複雜度分析…………………………………………….33
4.2 結合基因演算法之演算流程………………………………….34
4.3 參數估計……………………………………………………….39
4.4 例證與分析…………………………………………………….44
第五章  綜合性討論
5.1  主要目標………………………………………………………47
5.2  限制因素………………………………………………………47
5.3  現有條件………………………………………………………49
5.4  預期效益………………………………………………………49
第六章 結論與建議
6.1 結論………………………………………………………………51
6.2 後續研究方向之建議……………………………………………51
參考文獻
一、 中文部分…………………………………………………......53
二、 英文部分…………………………………………………......53
圖 目 錄
圖1.1 論文研究架構………………………………………………………..7
圖3.1 集中化序列投資策略………………………………………….....16
圖3.2 預期營運報酬達成時間與消費人口關係圖……………………...21
圖3.3 序列效能示意圖…………………………………………………...26
圖3.4 線性函數區位特徵影響圖………………………………………...28
圖4.1 限制式數目與投資區域數目關係曲線圖………………………...34
圖4.2 結合基因演算法之演算流程圖…………………………………….36
圖4.3 求解過程之收斂圖………………………………………………...46
圖4.4 以實際區域表示之投資序列圖…………………………………….46
圖5.1 「軍民通用科技」發展策略圖…………………………………….50
表 目 錄
表4.1 GeneHunter及Evolver4.0比較表………………………………...35
表4.2 之估計值……………………………………………………......44
表4.3 之估計值……………………………………………………......45
表4.4 之估計值………………………………………………………....45
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