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研究生:唐國偉
研究生(外文):Gao-Wei Tang
論文名稱:台灣資訊產業延遲策略存貨風險分析模式之建構-以桌上型電腦代工為例
論文名稱(外文):Risk Analysis Model for Inventory Control of Postponement Strategies-- Example of Computer OEM Industries in Taiwan
指導教授:蔡明志蔡明志引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ming-Chih Tsai
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄第一科技大學
系所名稱:運輸倉儲營運所
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:83
中文關鍵詞:延遲策略資訊產業存貨管理風險分析
外文關鍵詞:Computer industriesand Risk AnalysisPostponement strategiesinventory control
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:14
  • 點閱點閱:481
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:163
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
當前資訊產業為因應客製化與相關物流不確定性因素的課題,資訊產業一般採行的策略是將其成品最後客製化的作業延遲到顧客需求確定之後才開始執行。且大量客製化趨勢下,企業為在競爭激烈的環境下求生存,必須提供符合顧客需求的成品或服務,採行延遲策略也可說是提昇競爭力優勢的良方之一。
本研究的主要內容是以關鍵零組件在需求、供給及跌價不確定性下的觀點下,達到降低存貨成本及延遲時間風險兩目標,以建立延遲策略存貨風險模式,同時以桌上型電腦產業為例,進而提供國內桌上型電腦業者在面對全球運籌模式下,推行延遲策略的參考。
經由模式建構,本研究進行數值及敏感度分析發現,存貨平均延遲時間風險和成本風險會呈現抵換關係,當供給可靠度增加及需求變動性減小,存貨時間和成本風險隨之減少,且供給可靠度對存貨風險敏感度較需求變動性大,並歸結出利用供給可靠度的增加和目標存貨水準和再訂購存貨水準調整,可減少需求變動所造成的存貨風險值影響。
Postponement strategies indicate that some of the activities in the supply chain are postponed until customer orders are received. Companies that utilize postponement strategies may postpone distribution of finished goods (termed as time and place postponements) or/and product assembly or manufacturing processes (termed as form postponements), through which enterprises may reduce transport, inventory carrying and obsolescence costs and increase customers’ responsiveness (Pagh, et al., 1998; Zinn, et al., 1998). Since postponement strategies could coincide with the driving force changes of international business, such as globalization, demanding customers and technological utilizations, a rapid increasing number of companies are reconfiguring their supply chain for postponements (Van Hoek, et al., 1998).
Nonetheless, subject to short timeframe, dispersed geography and impending inventory, postponement performances are sensitive to a broad range of internal and external uncertainties, such as, market demand, vendors’ supply, distribution reliability (e.g. border-crossing disruption following 911 terrorism attack), product/component devaluation, and market competitiveness (Kingsman, et al., 1996). Issues on risks are thus essential for corporations to justify their postponement strategies. But a systematic risk analysis of postponement practices has yet been seen. Furthermore, despite the potential attractiveness of postponement strategies, little is known about the practical implementation of such strategies so far (Van Hoek, et al., 1998). As a consequence, this study aims to investigate the execution of postponement strategies of Taiwanese computer Original Equipment Manufacturing (OEM) industry that produced more than one fourth of global computer products, and to construct a generic quantitative risk analysis model to justify a favored component inventory and reorder levels to counteract the associated uncertainties. The computer software @RISK is utilized as a simulation tool.
一、緒論1
1.1 研究背景及動機1
1.2 研究目的3
1.3 研究方法3
1.4 研究流程4
1.5 研究範圍5
1.6 研究限制6
二、文獻回顧7
2.1 延遲策略7
2.1.1 延遲策略的定義7
2.1.2 延遲策略的應用9
2.2存貨管理與不確定性因素間關係17
2.2.1 存貨管理定義17
2.2.2 存貨控制方法18
2.2.3 相關存貨管理不確定性因素文獻19
2.3 風險管理相關議題20
2.3.1 風險定義21
2.3.2 風險管理的內容與目的22
2.3.3 風險管理的流程23
2.4 系統模擬27
2.4.1 系統模擬定義27
2.4.2系統模擬程序28
三、台灣資訊產業全球運籌模式延遲策略之探討31
3.1 資訊產業全球運籌發展31
3.1.1我國電腦產銷概況32
3.1.2資訊產業推動全球運籌產銷模式34
3.1.3 全球運籌模式運用延遲策略的形式38
3.2 資訊產業在延遲策略上的應用39
3.2.1 國外資訊大廠延遲策略上應用40
3.2.2 國內資訊廠商延遲策略應用41
四、延遲策略存貨風險分析模式建構48
4.1 延遲策略存貨風險之分析架構48
4.1.1延遲策略之存貨風險因素定義與決策目標之選擇48
4.1.2 決策變數之選擇49
4.1.3 風險不確定性因素50
4.2 存貨風險分析模式建立51
4.2.1 模式基本假設52
4.2.2 模式參變數說明52
4.2.3 模式模擬步驟54
4.2.4 敏感度分析情境設計57
五、模擬與結果分析59
5.1 模擬參數校估59
5.2 風險值收斂之模擬次數60
5.3 數值分析模擬65
5.4 敏感度分析70
六、結論與建議74
6.1 結論74
6.2 建議76
七、參考文獻78
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