臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在探討網路外部性下，廠商的產品創新預告策略對於消費者轉換成本的影響，以及此一預告策略所經常造成「泡沫軟體」現象下，廠商預告行為背後是否存有策略性的動機。本研究首先利用Cobb-Douglas 的效用函數型態，推演消費者在所得限制下效用極大化的決策法則，發現消費者的間接效用將隨網路外部性之增加而增加，但隨產品或消費者保留效用之影子價格之提高而減少。這說明了網路外部性愈大，消費者的效用愈高，但是若保留效用的機會成本提高，則效用將隨之減少。而消費者的轉換成本除了受到產品價格影響之外，還會因不同
類型消費者對網路外部性的主觀評價不同而有變化。
就廠商運用產品創新預告策略的阻止進入議題而言，若產品具有外部性下，廠商即有「泡沫軟體」行為之動機，但其動機的大小受到懲罰成本的抑制，且若消費者不相信廠商的預告，在預告的邊際利益為0 之下，廠商也不會有不實產品預告的動機。但是，當有潛在進入者的情況，即第二期為雙占競爭的市場，若廠商具有品質優勢，就有不實預告的動機，且其動機將隨網路外性的增加而增強。另外，網路外部性的存在使得廠商有獲取全體消費者的誘因，因而即使不實預告存在懲罰成本，廠商仍有利用不實預告達到反競爭效果之動機。

假設廠商所在的市場為雙佔市場結構下，若廠商已經擁有大量的忠誠顧客，而不論在雙佔市場下價格上升對非忠誠顧客的銷售減少，都將不影響廠商的利潤。若是已經有的顧客人數很少，且廠商提供的產品是策略性的互補品，當在原有基本消費群中將價格調高時，將使得的原有消費減少，而使廠商的利潤反而下降；但若產品是策略性替代品，則廠商將會因此獲利。

The purpose of this study explored the influence of the new product preannouncement strategy on the consumer switching cost under the network externality.Besides, into whether there is strategic motivation behind the preannouncement under the frequent vaporware phenomenon caused by the preannouncement strategy. Using the Cobb-Douglas utility function to elaborate consumer’s switching cost. The study
finds that, the indirect utility of the consumer increases with the increase of the network
externality. However, it decreases with the increase of the shadow price of the product
or consumer reserve utility. As for the consumer switching cost, it varies with the product price, as well as the different active evaluations from the consumers on the

In terms of the entry deterrence under network externality, the enterprise will have
the motivation of the vaporware behavior, yet the size of the motivation is limited by the
penalty cost. Therefore, giving the fact that there is penalty cost within false
preannouncement, there is motivation for the enterprise to use false preannouncement as
to achieve the anticompetitive utility. Suppose the enterprise is in a duopoly market structure, if it has a lot of loyal customers already, then the network keep the profit of As the above consequences, the analysis provided the business with knowing how the preannouncement affect the consumer’s switching cost and entry deterrence.

中文提要……………………………………………………………………………i
英文提要……………………………………………………………………………ii
誌謝…………………………………………………………………………………iii
目錄……………………………………………………………………………… iv
表目錄…………………………………………………………………………… v
圖目錄…………………………………………………………………………… vi
第一章緒論……………………………………………………………………… 1
第一節研究緣起與目的…………………………………………………… 1
第二節研究方法與架構…………………………………………………… 8
第三節本研究的重要性…………………………………………………… 10
第二章文獻探討………………………………………………………………… 11
第一節新產品預告………………………………………………………… 12
第二節網路外部性………………………………………………………… 24
第三節轉換成本………………………………………………………… 32
第三章網路外部性下產品創新預告策略對消費者轉換成本之影響分析…… 38
第一節前言………………………………………………………………… 38
第二節模型之建構…………………………………………………………… 41
第三節小結………………………………………………………………… 47
第四章網路外部性下市場競爭效果之分析…………………………………… 48
第一節前言………………………………………………………………… 48
第二節基本模型之建構…………………………………………………… 54
第三節產品創新預告對消費者預期之影響……………………………… 57
第四節產品創新預告對阻止進入之影響………………………………… 59
第五節網路外部性下雙佔廠商之競爭分析……………………………… 65
第六節小結………………………………………………………………… 70
第五章結論……………………………………………………………………… 72
第一節研究結論與行銷意涵……………………………………………… 72
第二節未來研究方向……………………………………………………… 74
參考文獻………………………………………………………………………… 76

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