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研究生:陳俊育
研究生(外文):Chun-Yu Chen
論文名稱:經濟成長與人口遷移-美國個案研究
論文名稱(外文):Labor Migraton and Economic Growth-The Case of United States
指導教授:印永翔印永翔引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yung-Hsiang Ying
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:中山學術研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:51
中文關鍵詞:經濟成長人口遷移人力資本縱橫資料
外文關鍵詞:labor migrationeconomic growthpanel datahuman capital
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摘 要
近年的跨國成長研究中,許多實證分析皆指出實體資本與人力資本存量僅能做為解釋部份所得不同的來源。於是,經濟學家即嘗試加入更多解釋變數,試圖弭平實體與人力兩資本不能解釋經濟成長的原因。一般而言,成長理論普遍應用在比較跨國成長差異分析,然於單一國家實證研究卻甚少探討。由於成長不均現象在國家經濟面向中為重要問題,且不論開發中或已開發國家都存在此課題,如城鄉差距日益擴大所引發的財政分配,以及勞動市場失衡造成的高失業率問題,因此,對於如何拉近單一國家內行政區產出即成了令人關注的議題。而這樣的問題對一些世界上具有高度影響力的大型單一經濟體-特別是美國-當是更令人關切,由於美國國內有形與無形資本自由流動度高,衡量產出時將需考慮更周延的因素。
根據國政報告的研究指出造成過去美國景氣能持續擴張將近10年,很重要的因素之一是資訊科技(information technology, IT)與網際網路(internet)的發展所致,而這些大量的外來移民將可滿足IT產業的人力需求並消費廠商所生產的產品,促使美國經濟呈現長期成長。因此,我們認為衡量美國產出除了探討實體資本與人力資本的影響力,對於外來移民(或稱移動式人力資本)在美國經濟成長的貢獻更是有必要加以研究。
分析三個模型背後的經濟意涵,我們可總結出以下四點結論:
第一、有效勞動力的實體資本 與人力資本 對美國各州在1991年至1999年的經濟成長都具有正面助益效果,但對產出卻呈現不同的影響力。在有效勞動力的實體資本部份出現對各州經濟成長影響力愈來愈小,其估計係數由0.0783、0.0638降為0.0169,說明了有效勞動力的實體資本在各州經濟成長上是扮演一個必要,但非主要的投入要素;反觀有效勞動力的人力資本對產出的影響力由0.4568快速攀升至1.1052,顯示人力資本累積是美國各州在1990年代,經濟能夠持續且快速成長的主要投入要素之一。此外,我們也發現到 速度愈來愈快(由0.0165增為0.0183)的現象,隱含了 值的下降(由0.0853降為0.0447)。換言之,經濟體要達到穩定狀況不能僅靠實體資本存量的增加,而是人力素質與科技水準均需同時提升。
第二、愈多的外來移民 將可提高各州經濟成長。由於外來移民本身擁有相當高的知識與技能,他們一方面可藉由外溢效果澤被當地居民,使得當地人力資本存量增加;另方面,他們投入勞動市場後,因其本身具較佳的人力素質,所以能夠增加當地生產力,進而推升經濟的成長。
第三、模型中的 項雖是各州隨機係數,但它代表的意義卻是每一州不同的地理位置、資源稟賦、制度等特有條件,因此,當我們能考慮更多 的組成份(如文中加入外來移民)並予以改善、發展,則對於長期經濟成長應會有明顯且正面的助益。
第四、文中 偏低的情形可能是我們在模型中並沒有考慮景氣循環的問題,因此,在進行單國時間序列分析(Panel Data模型為時間序列加上橫剖面兩種型態的資料)並直接做生產函數估計時,可能會碰到Romer (1987)所提到的估計困難,即當經濟變數的景氣循環效果支配某些變數變動對產出成長貢獻,將使得估計變成沒有效率。
綜合上述結論我們發現1990年代的美國之所以能建立強大經濟地位,除了實體資本與人力資本的累積外,對於外來移民所帶來的影響力亦應予以高度重視,從近年來新加坡制定吸引優秀外來人口的國家政策可見,更可瞭解高技術性移民的重要性已逐漸超越資本性移民。因此,我們認為國家對於外來移民愈重視,將會使該國能夠擁有愈高的經濟成長率與國際競爭力,而〝人〞力資本的累積,將成為決定國家是否能在國際舞台上佔有一席之地的關鍵。
Abstract
In recent years, many empirical analyses of cross countries point out physical capital stock and human capital stock that can only explain partial cause of income inequality. Therefore, economists attempt to add multiple interpreted variables, trying to illustrate economic growth which physical capital and human capital can’t expound. Generally speaking, growth theory common was applied different growth assay of cross countries, but lacking empirical researches of single country. Income inequality is the important issue of national economy, including difference between town and country bring about problems of financial distribution, and unbalance of labor market cause mishap of high unemployment rates, consequently, it becomes interesting subject that how to blend state output in single country. The issue is more cared for United State that possessing enormous economic influence. Due to corporeal and incorporeal capital can free mobile, one must ponder on more detailed elements to measure national proceeds.
According to reports of national policy indicate that development of information technology (IT) and internet were one of important factors to form the longest expansion in the postwar period that lasted 111 months from March 1991 to June 2000, large number of immigrants that could satisfy labor demand of IT property, and consumed productions of market supply. For this reason, one consider to measure U.S. output not only confer the effects of accumulation of physical capital and human capital, but also contain contributions of immigrants.
To analyze economic implications in three models, one can summarize four conclusions:
First point: physical capital and human capital of effective labor provide with significantly positive effect for economic growth rates of U.S. states in 1991 to 1999. Physical capital of effective labor shows that decreasing influence on economic growth of cross states, the magnitude of estimate coefficient are reducing from 0.0783, 0.0638, to 0.0169, demonstrating that play a role of necessary yet a main input factor. Opposite to physical capital, human capital of effective labor present increasing condition which from 0.4568 to 1.1052, displaying it’s outstanding for economic growth of U.S. Furthermore, we also find a phenomenon that speed of convergence ( ) enlarge huger (from 0.0165 to 0.0183), it imply that value of is diminishing (from 0.0853 to 0.0447). In other words, economies that want to approach state-steady can’t only depend on increasing of accumulation of physical capital, but quality of human and level of technology also simultaneously promote.
Second point: More immigrants will move up to economic growth of cross states. Because immigrants have lofty knowledge and skill, an aspect they can through spillover effect to local, increasing accumulation of human capital, another aspect that can raise local productivity to advance economic growth.
Third point: Although term of is random coefficient of cross states in models, it’s purport that comprise different geographical location, endowment of resource and institution etc. in every states, hence, when we can think about more component of (for instant, adding immigrants) to improve and develop it, than economic growth will reveal significant and positive beneficial result.
Fourth point: Lower adjusted may be that one don’t look upon puzzle of business cycle, therefore, one proceed time serious analysis of single country and directly estimate production function that could meet up perplexity of calculation (Romer, 1987), in other words, when effects of business cycle of economic variables dominate change of some variables for contributing economic growth that will make estimation to convert into inefficient.
Synthesizing the above-mentioned consequences, one find that U.S. can establish forceful economic status except for accumulation of physical capital and human capital, it’s more important that immigrants guide robust effect on economic dimension of host country. Such example that can be gather from national policy of Singapore. Consequently, one suggest that nation pay much attention to immigrants will intensify economic growth rates and international competition of nation, and accumulation of “human” capital will be a key-point that determinate force of national competition.
目 錄
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1
第二章 文獻回顧………………………………………………………4
第一節 經濟成長理論回顧……………………………………………………4
第二節 經濟成長實證回顧……………………………………………………6
第三章 模型推導與方法說明………………………………………11
第一節經濟成長模型……………………………………………………11
第二節研究方法說明……………………………………………………22
第四章 Panel Data實證分析結果…………………………………31
第一節 資料和研究期間……………………………………………………31
第二節 實證結果……………………………………………………………32
第五章 結論…………………………………………………………41
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………43
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