臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文主要探討在區塊抽樣(quadrat sampling)下，利用初次觀測樣本區塊中生物種類數的資訊來預測於未來再次觀測時將可以觀察到的新種類。在過去文獻中學者 Mingoti and Meeden (1992) 提出在貝塔-二項分配(Beta-Binomial distribution)假設下之預測估計量，但此估計量在非貝塔-二項分配假設下，表現不穩健，包括偏差大及變異大；在本文推導出類似Efron and Thisted (1976) 所提之預測估計量，可能為負值且變異大，本文另外提出一新的估計量較類似Efron and Thisted (1976) 所提之預測估計量來的佳，在貝塔-二項分配假設下，雖不如Mingoti and Meeden (1992) 提出之預測估計量，但在非貝塔-二項分配假設下，有較佳的表現。
在第二章回顧種類數預測估計量以及在第三章介紹各個種類數預測估計量，共七個種類數預測估計量。並且以兩種不同的初次觀測樣本區塊、三種不同的欲再觀測之樣本區塊，以及十種生物種類被觀測到機率，組合成六十種不同的模擬條件來進行模擬研究並針對模擬的結果，分析各個種類數預測估計量的表現，最後並列有兩則實例的探討。

第一章 緒論 1
第二章 模式簡介與回顧 3
2.1 符號說明……………………………………………….3
2.2 模式簡介……………………………………………….4
2.3 種類數預測文獻回顧………………………………….5
2.4 種類數文獻回顧……………………………………….7
第三章 種類數預測的各種估計量 10
3.1 近似不偏估計量 …………………………………….10
3.2 新的估計量…………………………………………...11
3.3 估計漸近標準差及信賴區間………………………...16
第四章 模擬研究與分析 18
4.1 模擬條件……………………………………………...18
4.2 模擬結果與討論……………………………………...21
第五章 實例分析 23
附錄 28
表錄 33
參考文獻 43

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