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研究生:李政康
論文名稱:多重模式系集模擬應用於季內振盪預報之研究
指導教授:鄒治華鄒治華引用關係陳正達陳正達引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣師範大學
系所名稱:地球科學研究所
學門:自然科學學門
學類:地球科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:65
中文關鍵詞:系集模擬與季內振盪
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亞洲季風區內之季內振盪(ISO)變化與亞洲夏季季風之肇始、活躍以及停歇有密切關係。南海季內振盪活動與台灣西部地區豪(大)雨具高度相關性,因此若能了解及預報南海地區30∼60天對流振盪之移行與結構,則有助於台灣西部地區之豪(大)雨預報。本研究之目的即在利用各種多重模式系集迴歸分析,以有效提升亞洲季風區內30∼60天季內振盪活動之預報能力。
本研究採用的模式資料出自大氣模式比對計畫(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project,AMIP),分別為DNM、ECHAM、JMA、NCAR、NTU以及PNNL模式。觀測資料則為CDC(Climate Diagnostic Center)所分析之每日外逸長波輻射場(Outgoing Longwave Radiation,OLR)。資料濾波採取基底函數具有正交函數特性之小波轉換(Wavelet Transform)。模式的評量方式則透過均方誤差(RMSE)、空間相關係數(Pattern Correlation Coefficent)以及誤差變異量評鑑(Error Variance Skill Score)等三種統計方法呈現。分析結果發現,除DNM模式外其餘模式均能有效掌握亞洲季風區內30∼60天季內振盪氣候變化情形(空間相關係數均在0.4以上),但對於30∼60天季內振盪各年變化預報則無法超越模擬氣候變化時之水準。多重模式超系集迴歸預報(Multimodel Superensemble Forecast),在訓練時期(training period)之表現均優於任何單一模式或多重模式系集預報,但在預報時期(forecast period)則不然。本研究將多重模式系集平均(ensemble mean)應用於迴歸改進之單一模式,在預報時期,其模擬亞洲季風區內30∼60天季內振盪之各年變化為最佳,然其預報結果僅略優於氣候預報。
誌謝-----------------------------------------------------Ⅰ
摘要-----------------------------------------------------Ⅱ
目錄-----------------------------------------------------Ⅲ
圖表說明-------------------------------------------------Ⅳ
一、前言--------------------------------------------------1
二、資料與研究方法 ---------------------------------------5
2.1 資料與濾波方法 -----------------------------------5
2.2 多重模式系集模擬之線性迴歸方法 -------------------6
2.3 模式預報能力之評鑑方法 --------------------------10
三、亞洲季風區之季內振盪模擬 ----------------------------12
3.1 30∼60天季內振盪之氣候變化模擬-------------------12
3.2 30∼60天季內振盪之各年變化模擬 ------------------15
四、系集迴歸模擬應用於亞洲季風區內之季內振盪-------------20
4.1 亞洲季風區之預報---------------------------------20
4.2 東亞季風區與南亞季風區之預報 --------------------23
五、結論與討論 ------------------------------------------27
參考文獻-------------------------------------------------31
附圖表---------------------------------------------------37
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