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研究生:林世華
研究生(外文):LIN SHIH HUA
論文名稱:以人口學分析法進行台灣東北部海域深海狐鮫之資源評估
論文名稱(外文):Stock assessment of the bigeye thresher shark, Alopias superciliosus in the northeastern waters off Taiwan------ a demographic approach
指導教授:劉光明劉光明引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立海洋大學
系所名稱:漁業科學學系
學門:農業科學學門
學類:漁業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:75
中文關鍵詞:深海狐鮫生活史階段別模式資源評估年齡結構模式隨機生活史階段別模式
外文關鍵詞:Stage-based modelStock assessmentAlopias superciliosusAge-structured modelStochastic stage-based model
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本研究以人口學分析法:生活史階段別模式(Stage-based model)及人口學年齡結構模式(Demographic age-structured model)評估台灣東北部深海狐鮫(Alopias superciliosus)之資源狀況。根據過去生物學研究的結果,將深海狐鮫生活史分為初生兒、幼魚、懷孕成魚及休息成魚四個階段,以Peterson and Wroblewski(1984)之方程式估得之生活史各階段自然死亡係數分別為M1 =0.175yr-1、M2 =0.121yr-1、M3 =0.108 yr-1、M4 =0.108 yr-1。生活史階段別模式分析結果顯示,在無漁獲的狀態下,λ=1.05、r=0.049,在現今的狀態下族群成長率(λ)為0.9375、內在增加率(r)為-0.0645,資源呈現緩慢減少的趨勢,年齡結構模式所得之結果亦顯示了相似的趨勢。此外,隨機生活史階段別模式分析,得到與上述兩種模式類似的結果:族群成長率(λ)為0.929 (95﹪CI: 0.882 — 0.975)。若生活史參數不變並維持現今的漁獲狀態,以隨機生活史階段別模式模擬未來10年、20年的族群狀況,資源將分別減少52.4%與77.3%。不同管理策略的模擬顯示當F=0.067yr-1,開發率E=37%時,資源可永續利用;此外若對漁獲壓力靈敏度較高的初生兒和幼魚階段進行保護,亦可確保深海狐鮫資源的永續利用。
Stock assessment of the bigeye thresher shark, Alopias superciliosus in the northeastern waters off Taiwan was conducted with demographic approach: stage based model and age-structured model. Four life stages of A. superciliosus was determined based on its biological characteristics as neonate, juvenile, pregnant adult and resting adult. Natural mortality of each stage estimated from Peterson and Wroblewski (1984) was as follows: M1=0.175, M2=0.121, M3=0.108, M4=0.108 yr-1. The results of stage-based model indicated that the finite rate of population increase λ= 1.05, intrinsic rate of increase r= 0.049 withuot fishing mortality, while the bigeye thresher stock decreased slowly (λ=0.94, r=-0.065) under current fishing condition. Similar results were obtained from age- structured model. The results of stochastic stage-based model indicated that the bigeye thresher stock is declining (λ=0.929 with 95% C.I.=0.882~0.975) under current fishing condition and will reduce 52.4% and 77.3% for 10 yr and 20 yr projection, respectively. The stock is sustainable as long as fishing mortality maintains 0.067yr-1 that is exploitation rate E=37% or neonate and juvenile stages was protected.
中文摘要……………………………………………………………1
英文摘要……………………………………………………………2
第一章、 前言 ……………………………………………………3
1-1 深海狐鮫漁業概況…………………………………………3
1-2 深海狐鮫之生活史及生殖策略……………………………3
1-3 文獻回顧……………………………………………………4
1-4 研究目的……………………………………………………7
第二章、 材料與方法 ……………………………………………8
2-1 資料的處理與分析 ……………………………8
2-1-1 生活史參數之引用 ……………………8
2-1-2 死亡係數之估計 ………………………8
2-2 生活史階段別模式(Stage-based model)…10
2-2-1 生活史階段之劃分……………………10
2-2-2 模式之發展……………………………10
2-2-3 電腦模擬………………………………………………13
2-3 人口學年齡結構模式(Demographic age-
structured model)…………………………14
2-3-1 零歲魚活存率之推估…………………14
2-3-2 參數之估計……………………………………………15
2-3-3 人口學年齡結構模式之假設…………………………16
2-3-4 人口學年齡結構模式之模擬…………………………16
2-4 靈敏度分析 ………………………………………………18
2-5 隨機生活史階段別模式(Stochastic stage-
based model) ………………………………19
2-5-1 模式發展………………………………19
2-5-2 隨機變數選取…………………………19
2-5-3 電腦模擬………………………………20
第三章、 結果……………………………………………………22
3-1 死亡係數………………………………………22
3-1-1 自然死亡係數…………………………22
3-1-2 年齡別漁獲死亡率……………………22
3-2 生活史階段別模式……………………………23
3-2-1 生活史參數與雷氏矩陣………………23
3-2-2 模擬結果………………………………24
3-2-3 資源狀態………………………………25
3-3 人口學年齡結構模式…………………………26
3-3-1 零歲魚活存率…………………………26
3-3-2 人口學年齡結構模式的結果…………26
3-4 靈敏度分析……………………………………27
3-5 隨機生活史階段別模式………………………27
3-5-1 模擬結果………………………………27
第四章、 討論……………………………………………………31
4-1 死亡係數之估算………………………………31
4-2 模式比較………………………………………32
4-3 生活史階段別模式……………………………33
4-4 人口學年齡結構模式的問題…………………34
4-5 隨機生活史階段別模式………………………35
4-6 資源管理策略…………………………………36
4-7 結論……………………………………………38
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………39
附圖 ………………………………………………………………46
附表 ………………………………………………………………55
附錄 ………………………………………………………………74
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