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研究生:簡群杰
論文名稱:加入WTO關稅變化對台灣汽車業市場結構與營運行為之影響
指導教授:劉 祥 熹 博 士
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:合作經濟學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:90
語文別:中文
論文頁數:164
中文關鍵詞:WTO台灣汽車市場結構
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國立臺北大學九十學年度第二學期碩士學位論文提要
論文題目:加入WTO關稅變化對台灣汽車業市場結構與營運行為之影響
所 組 別: 合作經濟學 系(所) 合作與非營利事業 組 論文頁數: 164 頁
研 究 生: 簡 群 杰 指導教授: 劉 祥 熹 博 士
論文提要內容:
近年來台灣汽車產業除了正面臨國內市場萎縮、土地取得不易、勞力成本不斷增加與環境保護日益嚴苛等經營困境問題之外,這背後更面臨了台灣加入WTO,汽車進口關稅與汽車自製率大幅調降,開放限地進口等措施,致使國內汽車市場全面加速開放,國外廠商長驅直入,因而使本國廠商除了面臨國內日益惡化的生存環境,更重要的是面臨了來自於國外廠商的更強大競爭,也使台灣整體汽車市場結構也將面臨空前未有的最大挑戰。
因此,就台灣整體汽車市場結構現狀而言,為了能夠突破現有的經營困境與面對加入WTO之後的衝擊與因應之道,本文將先分析過去十年來政府對台灣汽車市場結構採取貿易保護措施,對台灣汽車市場結構的變化情形來加以說明,並詳加說明在貿易保護制度下,本國廠商與進口廠商市場佔有率、廠商家數、商品價格的增減變化情形,再利用此模型去推導當台灣加入WTO之後,因整體市場開放、關稅稅率逐年降低、台灣汽車市場結構變化情形來加以說明,進而去說明在貿易開放下,本國廠商與進口廠商市場佔有率,廠商家數、商品價格的增減變化情形。
此時,本文亦繼續探討在開放經濟體系市場下,台灣汽車市場廠商間彼此爭也更加激烈,因而在競爭激烈的市場中,廠商間可能採取策略聯盟與合併,致使各廠商間所扮演的角色會產生變化,而廠商間的市場佔有率、廠商家數、商品價格也會出現增減變化情形,進而從中可以去探討採取策略聯盟或獨立經營競爭對支配廠商、邊際廠商與外國廠商何者最有利,本文研究所獲得的結論如下:
一、台灣汽車市場在政府採取課徵關稅保護之下,短期下本國邊際廠商與支配廠商市場佔有率會增加,而外國廠商市場佔有率反而會減少,然而在長期下本國邊際廠商市場佔有率會增加,支配廠商市場佔有率則不一定,但外國廠商市場佔有率反而一直減少。
二、台灣汽車市場在政府採取消課徵關稅保護措施之下,短期下本國邊際市場佔有率會減少,本國支配廠商市場佔有率也會減少,而
外國廠商市場佔有率則會相對增加,長期下本國邊際市場佔有率會減少,本國支配廠商市場佔有率可能會增加也可能會減少,外國廠商市場佔有率則會增加。
三、台灣在加入WTO之後各種可能策略下,短期下不管在任何競爭策略下,支配廠商市場佔有率減少,邊際廠商市場佔有率也傾向減少但是相對於支配廠商較有利,外國廠商市場佔有率則會增加,若廠商間採取策略聯盟,支配廠商市場佔有率減少,邊際廠商市場佔有率則不一定,但是相對於支配廠商也較有利,外國廠商市場佔有率則亦會增加,在不採取任何策略聯盟之下,支配廠商市場佔有率可能會增加也可能會減少,邊際廠商市場佔有率可能會增加也可能會減少,外國廠商市場佔有率可能會增加也可能會減少。
四、台灣在加入WTO之後各種可能策略下,長期下不管在任何競爭策略下,支配廠商市場佔有率減少,邊際廠商市場佔有率則不一定,
外國廠商市場佔有率則會增加,若廠商間採取策略聯盟,支配廠商市場佔有率減少,邊際廠商市場佔有率則不一定,但是相對於支配廠商也較有利,外國廠商市場佔有率則亦會增加,在不採取任何策略聯盟之下,支配廠商市場佔有率則減少,邊際廠商市場佔有率可能會增加也可能會減少,外國廠商市場佔有率則會增加。

Abstract
In the recent years, the auto industry of Taiwan is facing with the problems of the management dilemma in the areas of the domestic market shrinkage, the difficulty in obtaining property, the continue increase on the labor cost, and the daily increase on the severe restriction of the environmental protection. Besides all these problems, Taiwan in facing with joining WTO must deal with the decrease adjustment on the custom duty of the importing automobile and the decrease on the percentile of the domestic manufacture of the automobiles. The measures of the opening to the restricted import, which would lead to the overall, acceleration of the opening to the public access of the domestic auto market. The direct intervention of the foreign firms would lead to the deterioration of the surviving environment for the domestic firms. More importantly, our nation must face with even stronger competition from the foreign firms, which let the entire structure of the auto industry of Taiwan to face with the greatest challenge, of which it has never encountered before.
Because of all these reasons, to speak of the present condition of the structure of Taiwan’s entire auto industry and enable to break through of the present management dilemma, and to face with the conflict after joining WTO, this article will first analyze the measure of the trade protection taken by the government for the structure of the auto market of Taiwan within the last ten years. Then it explains the change of the market structure of Taiwan’s automobile, also explains in detail the system under the trade protection, the market share of the domestic firms and the foreign firms, the number of firms, and the changing condition of the products’ price fluctuation. Furthermore, it uses this model to analyze the condition of Taiwan after joining WTO. Because of the opening of the entire market, the decrease of the custom duty by years. It adds the explanations to the change of the structure of Taiwan’s auto market, further explains under the opening of the trade, the market share of the domestic and the foreign factory, the number of the firms, and the changing conditions of the price’s fluctuation of the product.
At this moment, this article will continue the discussions under the opening of the market of the present economic system, and the competition among the firms of Taiwanese auto market have become even more intense. Because of the intense competition within the market, the firms may choose the strategies of alliance and combining among themselves, which lead to the change of the role-play by the individual firms, and the market share among the firms, the number of firms, the display of the condition of the price’s fluctuation for the products, from which we may discuss to choose which strategies of alliance or the independent of competitive management is the most advantages for the allocating firms, the fringe firms, and the foreign firms. The research of this article obtained the following conclusions:
1. Taiwanese auto market is under the protection of the custom duty deduction chosen by the government. Within short period of time, the market share for our nation’s fringe firms and the allocating firms will increase, and the market share for the foreign firms on the other hand will decrease. Nevertheless, for the long term the market share for our nation’s fringe firms will increase, the market share for the allocating firms will not be certain, but the market share for the foreign firms on the other hand, will continue to decrease.
2. Taiwanese auto market under the government discontinuing the protection of the custom duty deduction within the short term, the market share for our domestic market for fringe firms will decrease, and the market share for our domestic market for domestic firms will also decrease. Yet the market share for the foreign firms will at the same time increase. Under the long term, the market share for our domestic market for fringe firms will decrease. The market share for our domestic market for domestic firms may possibly increase, and it may also possibly decrease. The market share for foreign firms will then increase.
3. After joining WTO, Taiwan may be subject under different possible strategies, in the short term, no matter under what kinds of the competitive strategies, the market share for the domestic market for domestic firms will decrease. The market share for domestic market for fringe firms the will tend to decrease, but it will have better advantage for the domestic market for fringe firms, and the market share for the foreign firms would then increase. If the factories choose the strategy of alliance among themselves, the market share for the domestic market for domestic firms will decrease. The market share for the domestic market for fringe firms will not be certain, but it will become better advantage for the domestic market for domestic firms. The market share for the foreign firms would then increase. If the firms chooses no any strategy for alliance, the market share for the domestic market for domestic firms may increase and it may also decrease. The market share for the domestic market for fringe firms may possibly increase and it may decrease, so it will also be the same for the foreign firms.
4. After joining WTO, Taiwan may be subject under different possible strategies, in the long term, no matter under what kinds of the competitive strategies, the market share for the domestic market for domestic firms will decrease. The market share for the domestic market for fringe firms will not be certain, and the market share for the foreign firms will then increase. If the factories choose the strategies of alliance among themselves, the market share for the domestic market for domestic firms will decrease. The market share for the domestic market for fringe firms will not be certain, but it will become better advantage for the domestic market for domestic firms. The market share for the foreign firms will then increase. If the firms chooses no any strategy for alliance, the market share for the domestic market for domestic firms will then decrease, the market share for the domestic market for fringe firms may possibly increase or it may decrease. The market share for the foreign firms will then increase.

目 錄
目錄……………………………………………………… Ⅰ
圖次……………………………………………………… Ⅲ
表次……………………………………………………… Ⅳ
第壹章 緒論……………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機與背景………………………………………1
第二節 研究目的………………………………………………3
第三節 研究方法與步驟…………………………………… 4
第四節 研究對象、範圍、資料來源……………………… 6
第五節 論文架構…………………………………………… 8
第貳章 台灣汽車產業特性與現況分析…………………… 10
第一節 台灣汽車產業特性………………………………… 10
第二節 台灣汽車產業發展之歷程………………………… 15
第三節 台灣汽車產業發展之現況………………………… 18
第參章 理論模型與推估…………………………………… 25
第一節 台灣未加入WTO政府長期保護汽車市場最適控制之
基本模型………………………………………….25
第二節 台灣汽車市場長短期均衡分析……………………32
第肆章 數值模擬結果與分析………………………………36
第一節 台灣加入WTO政府逐漸開放汽車市場最適控制
之基本模型……………………………………………36
第二節 模擬結果與分析…………………………………151
第伍章 結論與建議……………………………………….156
第一節 結論………………………………………………156
第二節 建議………………………………………………160
參考文獻…………………………………………………….162

參考文獻
中文期刊、論文
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2. 吳惠林、林顯峰、于若蓉,1988.6,產業結構調整政策,中華經濟研究院。
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4. 歐嘉瑞,1993「從市場供需面研析我國加入關稅貿易總協定後汽車之相關因應措施」,台銀季刊,第44卷第3期。
5. 蔡宗義,1993.7「我國經濟發展與產業結構的變遷」,台灣經濟研究院月刊,4卷6期。
6. 蔡攀龍,1996,6經濟學數學方法導論。
7. 劉泰英、吳志炎等人,1988,6「產業發展指標查視體系研究報告」,台灣經濟研究院。
8. 蕭峰雄,1989.12「公元2000年我國工業發展之展望及策略」,台灣經濟研究院。
9. 薛立敏、杜英儀,1992.7「評估台灣製造業的產業升級狀況」,經濟前瞻,第7卷第3期。
10. 魏依玲,1996,「1996科技產業現況與市場趨勢」,台北國際會議中心。
英文期刊、論文
1. Balassa, Bela. (1985) Change and Challenge in the World Economy,
St. Martin’s Press , New York.
2. Baldwin, David A. (1985) Economic Statecraft Princeton, Princeton University Press.
3. Bird, Graham. (1985) World Finance and Adjustment, an Agenda for Reform, St. Martin’s Press, New York.
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5. Denison, Edward F. (1985) Trends in American Economic Growth, 1929-1982, The Brookings Institution, Washington.
6. Etienne, Gilbert. (1985) “Rural Development in Asia , Meetings with Peasants,” Sage Publications, New Delhi.
7. Hufbauer, Gary Clyde and Jeffrey J. Schott.(1985) “Trading for Growth, The Next Round of Trade Negotiations,” Institute for International Economics, Washington.
8. John, R. A. (1985) International Trade Theories and the Evolving International Economy , St. Martin’s Press, New York.
9. Machin, Howard and Vincent Wringht. (1985) Economic Policy and Policy-Making under the Mitterand Presidency, 1981-1984 , St. Martin’s Press, New York.
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11. Skully, Michael T., ed. (1985) Financial Institutions and Markets in the Southwest Pacific, A Study of Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea, St. Martin’s Press, New York.
12. Weaver, R. Kent. (1985) The Politics of Industrial Change , The Brookings Institution, Washington.

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