本研究之目的在於建立一套模擬模式，以分析臺大醫院作業櫃臺（掛號/結帳服務）之等候問題，在不增加資源的情形下，以系統資源之良善配置，降低系統中之等候人數、等候時間，改善整體效能。
經分析後發現：等候問題之瓶頸發生於上午十至十一時，其次下午二至三時，其中每週一及假日之隔日的等候問題更為顯著。研究所需之輸入資料為顧客到達率、服務速率、及顧客組成比率；輸出指標為等候人數、等候時間。經蒐集實地測量資料及院方之歷史資料後，本研究建構一基本模擬模型用以模擬作業櫃臺之運作現狀。透過電腦程式之運算，基本模擬模型可得一組輸出資料，在與實測資料進行統計檢定後確認模型效度，進而發展改善模型。
改善模型共有兩個，其一為「初診顧客獨立處理」，其二為「單一等候線」。初診顧客由於所需之處理時間較長，因此常造成等候時間過長之顧客比率上升，獨立處理可能改善原等候問題。單一等候線為一高公平性之排隊模式，對作業櫃臺之等候線也可能有所助益。
研究顯示，改善模式一和二在改善等候人數及等候時間上皆有統計上顯著差異；改善模式二在等候人數及等候時間上之改善幅度優於改善模式一，但僅等候時間具統計上之顯著差異。
本研究之結果為數量模型探討之結果，管理上之實踐較模型更為複雜，為避免單憑數量模型之簡化結果而誤導管理決策，本研究特別指出改善方案尚需更周延之整體配套措施，才能將改善等候問題之良善立意充分發揮。
最後，本研究提供臺大醫院一決策參考模型，以模擬方法為各項可行方案提出具體而量化之評價，並期望本模型可應用於更多的管理決策之上。

The main purpose of this research is to build up a set of simulation models that can be applied to the analysis of the operation-counter (patient registration/payment service) queuing problem of National Taiwan University (NTUH). Under the condition of not adding any extra resources, we expected to lower the number of people in the queues (waiting people) and the lengths of customers waiting time by improving the resource configuration.
After the basic statistical analysis, we found that the bottleneck of queuing system located on 10 to 11 am, the second peak was on 2 to 3 pm, and the queuing problems got more serious on Mondays and the days after holidays. In order to describe the situation of operation-counter, we used 3 kinds of input data variables: customer arrival rate, service rate, and customer entity types. The output data variables being used were the amount of waiting patients and their waiting time as the indicators of system performance. We built the basic model based on the in-depth interview and field research data. The model generated a set of output data by simulation software: Arena. We conducted hypothesis tests from historical data and simulation output to justify the validity of queuing model, and developed 2 improvement plans for the basic model.
Form the observation; first-time customers often consume much more time than none-first-timers. This may result in a higher rate of long waiting time customers. Plan 1 separated these customers from the crowds, and allocated a dedicated counter to serve the first-time-comers. Plan 2 used the single waiting line method to ensure fairness of waiting time variation. We assumed that these plans might help improving the total efficiency of queuing system.
Simulation results showed that plan 1 and 2 both resulted in the decrement of waiting time and waiting people, which can be confirmed by the statistical hypothesis test. Plan 2 had a superior outcome than plan 1 in reducing waiting time and waiting people, but significant difference was only observed in the waiting time analysis.
The result of this research is just the outcome of quantitative model, the implementation of plans could be much more complicated. To avoid the simulation result misguided the managerial decisions, further discussions are essential regarding the improved-plans in this research before actual implementation.
Last, the research provided a supportive decision-model for NTUH, and a quantitative valuation to alternatives of simulation method. We hope this model can be applied to other meaningful managerial decisions.

第一章 序論 1
第一節、研究緣起 1
第二節、研究背景與動機 2
第三節、研究目的 4
第四節、研究架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節、等候理論與應用 6
第二節、模擬的意義 8
第三節、模擬之優點及限制 9
第四節、成功模擬之要素 10
第五節、等候及模擬應用之文獻回顧 11
第三章 研究方法與數據設定 14
第一節、研究架構 14
第二節、模擬流程 15
第三節、研究對象與背景描述 17
第四節、研究假設 21
第五節、研究變相定義及統計分析 22
第六節、研究限制 26
第四章 研究結果 27
第一節、資料蒐集 27
第二節、基本模型建立 35
第三節、基本模型模擬結果 38
第四節、改善方案一之模型建構與結果 40
第五節、改善方案二之模型建構與結果 45
第五章 討論 51
第一節、掛號/結帳作業櫃臺 51
第二節、模擬模型建構 52
第三節、改善方案探討 54
第六章 結論與建議 60
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