本文提出一海岸線變遷數值模式，除了沿岸漂砂外，尚考慮向、離岸漂砂對長期的海岸線變化的影響。首先依能量的觀點求出沿岸方向及向、離岸方向的砂量，再配合由Longuet-Higgins（1970）所提出之公式計算平均沿岸流速，考慮進出地形元素之砂量必須守恆而推得地形變化之控制方程式。在數值計算方面採FTCS的差分方法。最後應用此模式於桃園觀塘及雲林麥寮等地區海岸線變化預估，結果顯示，以本模式計算所得之結果能合理預測海岸之變遷。

A shoreline prediction model was established in this research. Both effects of long-shore sediment transports and cross-shore sediment transports were included in present model to predict the change of shoreline. First, the energetics approach is employed in the present study to evaluate cross-shore and long-shore sediment transport rates. The model derived by Longuet-Higgins（1970）was used to estimate the long-shore current. Based on the above theories and the requirement of mass conservation of sand, the governing equation of shoreline position was derived. The equations were solved by FTCS explicit method. Finally, the coast around Guan-tang in Tao-yuan and Mai-liao in Yun-Lin were tested to verify our model. The results show the present model can predict shoreline position reasonably well.

中文摘要 Ⅰ
英文摘要 Ⅱ
目錄 Ⅲ
圖目錄 Ⅴ
表目錄 Ⅵ
符號說明 Ⅶ
第一章導論 1
1-1 前言 1
1-2 相關文獻回顧 3
1-3 研究目的 6
第二章海岸線變遷模式之建立 7
2-1 基本方程式 7
2-2 沿岸流計算 9
2-3 漂砂量估算 13
2-3-1 沿岸方向漂砂 13
2-3-2 向、離岸方向漂砂 15
2-4 海岸線變化 17
2-4-1 基本方程式之處理 17
2-4-2 漂砂之上下限界移動水深 18
2-5 差分處理 20
2-5-1 基本方程式差分化 20
2-5-2 計算步驟 22
第三章計算例 24
3-1 觀塘工業區 24
3-1-1 基本資料輸入 25
3-1-2 計算結果與討論 26
3-2 雲林離島工業區 33
3-2-1 基本資料輸入 33
3-2-2 計算結果與討論 35
第四章結論與檢討 46
參考文獻 48

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