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研究生:馮信雄
論文名稱:以簡易風險概念分析營建工程作業工期不確定性之研究
指導教授:楊智斌楊智斌引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中華大學
系所名稱:營建管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2002
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:62
中文關鍵詞:工期估計不確定性三角形分佈法百分位數法風險範圍估計法
外文關鍵詞:Duration EstimateUncertaintyTriangular DistributionFractile MethodRisk Banding
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:38
  • 點閱點閱:603
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:132
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:4
國內營建工程的時程分析主要以CPM或PERT技術為主,而PERT排程技術的主要貢獻是以三個估時(悲觀、最可能、樂觀估時)來取代CPM中的單一估時,並採用機率概念以Beta分佈理論來推算單一作業的作業時間進而推估專案的整體時程與風險。然而,由於工程專案的不確定性與唯一性,使得時程的風險管理便成為管理的重要課題,但要準確估計Beta分佈的悲觀與樂觀時間的端點值極為困難,因此如何利用簡易的方法進行完整的不確定風險分析是一值得研究的課題。
本研究以CPM排程網圖為基礎,對單一作業引用不確定風險等級分析的觀念,利用簡易的三角形分佈理論並整合百分位數法,以獲得單一作業的樂觀及悲觀估時,並透過Monte-Carlo模擬方式求得作業及專案的整體時程資訊。經由以橋梁工程為案例進行個案分析得知,本研究所建立之作業工期分析模式,可解決單一作業工期估計時之問題,而其成果可做為資源調派及工期管控的基準。
Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) are the main approaches to analyze the schedule of public construction works. The key contribution of PERT is to use three time estimates for each activity under Beta distribution. In that, each activity would have a probability-based duration and the project would have most probable project duration and its probability. However, how to accurately estimate activity’s optimistic and pessimistic duration is a vital task to uncertainty analysis, but is complicated. The purpose of this research is to develop an approach that uses the triangular distribution with the Fractile Method to estimate the optimistic and pessimistic duration of each activity simply. Based on the CPM, this research uses a bridge construction project under the Monte Carlo simulation to demonstrate the practice of proposed approach. Test results reveal that the proposed approach could make probability-based duration estimate easily that would be beneficial to project schedule management.
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1
1.1 研究動機與目的 …………………………………………….1
1.2 研究範圍與限制 …………………………………………….2
1.3 研究內容與研究方法 ..…………………………………….3
1.4 研究步驟與流程……………………………………………….4
1.5 論文章節……………………………………………………….4
第二章 文獻回顧………………………………………………………6
2.1 參考文獻範圍………………………………………………….6
2.2 國內主要參考文獻…………………………………………….6
2.3 國外主要參考文獻…………………………………………….7
2.4 國內營建工程常用排程方法回顧…………………………….7
2.5 各種排程方法之比較...………………………………………14
第三章 不確定性風險工期估計方法分析……………………………16
3.1 不確定性風險分析…………………………………………...16
3.2 三角形分佈的理論基礎……………………………………...18
3.3 蒙地卡羅模法概述…………………………………………...20
3.4 百分位數法…………………………………………………...22
3.5 不確定性風險範圍權重法…………………………………...23
3.6 本研究不確定性風險範圍分析選用的方法論……………...24
第四章 模型建構………………………………………………………26
4.1 整合概念 …………………………………………………….26
4.2 使用時機……………………………………………………...27
4.3 整合步驟與流程……………………………………………...27
4.4 模型之調整…………………………………………………...29
第五章 個案分析………………………………………………………32
5.1 案例簡介……………………………………………………...32
5.2 案例分析步驟………………………………………………...33
5.3 模擬結果之調整……………………………………………...54
5.4 案例分析結果驗證…………………………………………...54
第六章 結論與建議……………………………………………………58
6.1 結論…………………………………………………………...58
6.2 建議…………………………………………………………...59
參考文獻……………………………………………………………….60
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