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研究生:嚴文巧
研究生(外文):Wen-Chiao Yen
論文名稱:產品生命週期之決策模式研究
論文名稱(外文):A decision model for product life cycle
指導教授:黃宇翔黃宇翔引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yeu-Shiang Huang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:工業管理科學系碩博士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2003
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:52
中文關鍵詞:產品生命週期決策模式非齊次性卜瓦松程序
外文關鍵詞:product life cyclenon-homogeneous poisson processdecision model
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「產品生命週期」(Product Life Cycle, PLC)的概念,是將產品在市場上,隨著時間改變,期間的銷售變化情形,比照成生物的生命歷程,歷經出生、成長、成熟乃至於衰退等,而區分成若干個階段。目前產品生命週期之理論發展,對於行銷策略方面之研究,著重於以「質化」的方式,來探討不同階段時,最適宜之決策。本研究擬採取「量化」分析的方式,來探討產品於生命週期之過程中,決策者應採行何種策略以使組織利益達到最大。分析過程中,以非齊次性卜瓦松程序(Non-homogeneous Poisson Process, NHPP)來定義競爭者的行為;並假設以指數(Exponential)形態來描述競爭者的行為對組織收益的影響,再以決策分析模式進行分析,並以產品的未來期望利潤為判斷準則,以期選擇出一個最適的行銷策略使得組織利潤達到最大。
目錄 ……………………………………………………… I
表目錄………………………………………………………III
圖目錄………………………………………………………IV
第一章 緒論
第一節、研究背景………………………………………… 1
第二節、研究動機………………………………………… 2
第三節、研究目的………………………………………… 3
第二章 文獻探討
第一節、產品生命週期…………………………………… 4
一、基本概念 …………………………………………… 4
二、主要研究課題 ……………………………………… 9
第二節、非齊次性卜瓦松程序 ………………………… 14
第三節、決策分析方法 ………………………………… 18
第三章 研究方法
第一節、問題描述 …………………………………… 22
第二節、研究架構 …………………………………… 26
第三節、產品生命週期之決策模式建構 …………… 28
一、產品生命週期之決策模式 ……………………… 29
二、事前分析及事後分析 …………………………… 30
三、事後分析之前置分析………………………… 33
四、應用自然共軛事前分配之分析 ……………… 35
第四章 應用分析
第一節、實例說明及參數假設………………………… 38
第二節、決策分析及結果……………………………… 40
一、事前分析…………………………………………… 40
二、事後分析之前置分析 ……………………………… 41
三、事後分析 ………………………………………… 42
第三節、討論…………………………………………… 43
第五章 結論
第一節、研究成果……………………………………… 45
第二節、研究限制……………………………………… 45
第三節、未來研究方向………………………………… 46

參考文獻 ……………………………………………… 48
中文部分
吳冠昌, 民87 後進地區國家技術產品生命週期與產品替代議題之探討-以台灣光碟機產業為研究對象 國立成功大學企業管理學系 碩士論文。
周政德, 民91 國際產品生命週期之探索性研究 國立成功大學企業管理學系 碩士論文。
胡同來, 民84 “產品生命週期之探討” 中國工商學報第17卷, 頁347-353。
顏月珠, 民80 商用統計學, 三民書局 七版。
英文部分
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