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研究生:康端嚴
研究生(外文):Tuan-Yuen Kong
論文名稱:從多階段賽局模型解析新加坡和馬來西亞兩國政府間的水供談判
論文名稱(外文):A Game Theoretical Analysis of the Water Negotiations between Singapore and Malaysia
指導教授:宋鎮照宋鎮照引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jenn-jaw Soong
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:政治經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2003
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:90
中文關鍵詞:多階段賽局模型新馬關係水供議題
外文關鍵詞:multi-stage game modelSingapore-Malaysia relationswater supply issue
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新加坡由於國內水資源不足於提供人民食用,因此長期以來都向鄰國馬來西亞購買食水。兩國的水供關係甚至可以回溯到19世紀。就目前而言,雙方簽訂有兩份水供協議,一份簽於1961年,為期50年,另一份簽於1962年,為期100年,其中生水的部份,馬來西亞以每1000加侖馬幣3分的價格賣給新加坡。由於現今馬來西亞政府一直認為這個水價不符合其利益,因此一再要求新加坡政府提高購買食水的價格。馬來西亞政府於1998年趁著參加東協高峰會議之便,和當時同樣出席的新加坡總統吳作棟舉行會談,建議雙方開啟水供談判。吳作棟非常同意,因而促成2000年和2001年兩次新加坡資政李光耀和馬哈迪在馬來西亞的布特拉再也(Putrajaya)舉行的『四眼會談』(four-eye meeting)。
雙方就兩國多年來的雙邊問題進行磋商,最後在幾個重要的問題上達成了共識。在這配套形式的共識中,馬來西亞政府原則上答應在2061年舊的水供協議終止之後,將繼續提供水源給新加坡,而新加坡則願意提高15倍的購價。然而,經過幾次雙方政府的通信之後,這個原則性的配套共識最終宣告破滅。在2002年10月16-17日的第三次水供談判前,兩國政府同意不再以配套形式談判水供課題,正式放棄了2001年兩國領袖達成的配套共識。新馬政府都曾經非常樂觀的認為在這配套協議下新馬政府能達成新的水供共識。本文的研究目的就是試圖解釋,新馬兩國政府為何願意進行談判,但是卻無法達成新水供協議。
本文將建立一個符合新馬水供談判結構的多階段賽局模型,藉以探究本文所要研究的問題。本文所建立的賽局模型屬於完全訊息下的動態賽局,所以會運用子賽局完全均衡及逆向歸納法來求取賽局的均衡解,以便回答本文所關注的問題。
Owing to the lack of water resources, Singapore has been buying water from Malaysia. The relationship between the two countries on this issue can be traced back to 19th century. The two countries made two agreements, one in 1961 which lasts for 50 years and the other in 1962 which lasts for 100 years. Malaysia supplied water to Singapore at the price of 3 sen per 1000 gallons. However, the Malaysia government believed that the price was not fair, and demanded more from the Singapore government. In 1998, Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad discussed this issue with Singapore President Goh Chok Tong during the Asean annual meeting, hoping for a new round of negotiation. Goh agreed and organized the so-called four-eye meeting between Mahathir and Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew in 2000 and 2001 in Putrajaya.
The two sides discussed in details about various issues and made important agreements on several issues. Malaysia agreed to stick to the current contract under 2061 and would continue to supply water to Singapore with a 15-fold increase in price. But after several communications between the two governments, the new agreement was declared void. Both the Singapore and Malaysia governments were once optimistic about making a new agreement.
The objective of this thesis is to explain why the two governments are willing to negotiate but has not come up with an long-lasting agreement. This thesis develops a multi-stage game theoretical model to discuss the issue.
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與問題界定…………………………………………1
第二節 研究目的與重要性……………………………………………4
第三節 文獻回顧………………………………………………………5
第四節 分析架構與研究方法…………………………………………8
第五節 研究限制與章節安排…………………………………………11
第二章 賽局模型的探討………………………………………………14
第一節 概念界定………………………………………………………14
第二節 模型的建立……………………………………………………16
第三章 新馬的水供關係………………………………………………23
第一節 新加坡的水供政策與新馬水供關係的發展…………………23
第二節 新馬水供關係的爭議…………………………………………27
第三節 新馬水供新談判的發展………………………………………31
第四章 新馬水供談判的賽局分析……………………………………42
第一節 馬來西亞政府的立場…………………………………………42
第二節 新加坡政府的立場……………………………………………52
第三節 新馬兩國政府的政策偏好順序與賽局均衡…………………65
第五章 結論……………………………………………………………70
附錄 ……………………………………………………………………74
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………77
表目錄
表2-1 三種不同情況下的政策差異…………………………………19
表3-1 馬來西亞政府建議2011年以後的水供計算方式……………36
表3-2 三個時間點談判內容的差異…………………………………38
表4-1 新馬水供談判可能的發展……………………………………42
表4-2 馬來西亞全國水資源的需求量和供給量……………………48
表4-3 東協國家的水資源狀況………………………………………52
表4-4 新加坡的水資源消費量(1960年-1999年) …………………61
圖目錄
圖1-1 新馬水供談判的分析架構圖 …………………………………10
圖2-1 新馬水供談判的賽局結構圖 …………………………………17
圖4-1 兩國內外環境政經因素與談判立場的關係圖 ………………66
圖4-2 新馬水供談判的賽局均衡點 …………………………………69
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Leong, Ching Ching, “Water Price to Double by 2000”, The Straits Times, 11 June, 1997.
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“Singapore Seeks to Break Reliance on Malaysian Water,” at Stratfor.com, 14 March, 2000
“North Pole Melting,” The Straits Times, 24 July, 2000.
“Arsenic in Cambodia’s Drink Water,” The Straits Times, 19 August, 2000.
“KL Approves $318m Wateworks for Johor,” The Straits Times, 19 August, 2000.
Ng, Irene, “Unwise to Work for Full Self-reliance on Water,” The Straits Times, 26 January, 2001
Mingguan Malaysia, 3 February, 2002
The Straits Times, 4 February 2002.
“Water Rationing Looms in Malacca,” The Straits Times, 17 February, 2002, p.18.
“Widespread Forest Fires Threaten KL Homes,” The Straits Times, 19 February, 2002, p.A8
“Singapore was ready to go to war,” Business Times, 04 April, 2002.
“Water issue may yet leave a bad taste in the mouth, New water or not,” New Straits Time-Management Times, 08 July, 2002.
“More a favour than trade,” Business Times, 07 August, 2002.
“Singapore, Malaysia Renew Water Tussle,” China Post, 31 August, 2002, p. 5.
“Currents across the Causeway,” Business Times, 04 September, 2002.
“Malaysia to halt water talks with Singapore, to turn to court: report,” Agence France Presse, 30 November, 2002.
“Singapore ready to sign agreement to bring islet dispute to ICJ: report,” Agence France Presse, 29 December, 2002.
“Malaysia, Singapore take row to world court,” Reuters, 6 February, 2003.
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〈總理:新馬悬而未決課題有望在今年内解決〉,《聯合早報》,2001年01月27日。
〈新馬就雙邊課題達成基本協議〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月05日。
〈賽哈密:馬新課題剩細節待解決〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月06日。
〈李資政:折中方案已達至,現在在應往前走〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月06日。
〈《南洋商报》:馬新合作的新突破〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月06日。
〈《南洋商報》:水源是新加坡命脈〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月07日。
〈分析員:亞洲政經版圖轉移促新加坡讓步〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月07日。
〈議員與學者:協議為長遠關係提供新發展基礎〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月08日。
〈新馬“死結”終於揭開了〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月08日。
陳妙華譯,〈馬《每日新聞》社論:不該發表挑釁性的談話〉,《聯合早報》,2001年9月10。
〈赛哈密:馬新配套協議無「讓步」問題〉,《聯合早報》,2001年09月11日。
〈馬指「水供協定不平等」外交部:說法毫无根據〉,《聯合早報》,2002年01月28日。
〈馬哈迪:水供協議不影響馬新關係〉,《聯合早報》,2002年1月29日。
〈馬新宜速談判水供配套〉,《星洲日報》,2002年1月29日,綜合,頁 21。
〈水供合約柔雙重損失〉,《星洲日報》,2002年02月03日,綜合,頁21。
〈新否認拖延購水談判〉,《星洲日報》,2002年02月03日,綜合,頁 21。
〈外交部:新水價問題不能孤立來看 馬指我國不願付合理水價並非事實〉,《聯合早報》,2002年02月03日。
〈針對雙邊談判配套 馬哈迪向李資政提新建議〉,《聯合早報》,2002年03月12日。
〈馬新配套談判將在隆舉行〉,《聯合早報》,2002年3月21日。
〈副財長:盡管有爭議 馬國不會切斷新水供〉,《聯合早報》,2002年04月04日。
〈吳總理:减少對馬國水供依賴將有利新馬關係發展〉,《聯合早報》,2002年4月6日。
〈馬《新海峡時報星期刊》社論:馬承諾供水和水價是两回事 新加坡不應混唯一談〉,《聯合早報》,2002年04月08日。
〈馬哈迪:處理本國事務須谨慎明智 馬不要和新加坡發生戰爭〉,《聯合早報》,2002年04月15日。
〈馬本月底可回應吳總理函件 外長赛哈密:新馬配套問題不能再拖〉,《聯合早報》,2002年05月06日。
〈外長賽哈密:40年前與新簽署兩水供協定 馬不準備更新 期满後自動失效〉,《聯合早報》,2002年08月08日。
〈吳作棟:議價須有基礎 獅城不反對調高水價〉,《星洲互動》,2002年10月08日。
〈外長:為水4俱問題尋解決方案 大馬給獅城最後機會〉,《星洲互動》,2002年10月13日。
〈兩國高官會商2天 馬向新解釋水價方程式〉,《星洲互動》,2002年10月16日。
〈吳總理:由於馬哈迪堅持 新加坡將放棄配套談判〉,《聯合早報》,2002年10月16日。
〈賽哈密:馬國準備備與新加坡各別談判水供課題〉,《聯合早報》,2002年10月17。
〈水供談判告一段落 新指大馬態度不認真〉,《星洲互動》,2002年10月18日。
〈馬哈迪:馬不會以水當武器對付新加坡〉,《聯合早報》,2002年10月22日。
〈《每日新聞》文章:馬廉價供水给新加坡有歷史因素〉,《聯合早報》,2002年10月24日。
〈新外交部:受法律約束 大馬須遵守水供合約〉,《星洲互動》,2002年10月26日。
〈李副總理:新馬不因一時爭議影響長遠關係〉,《聯合早報》,2002年10月28日。
〈水供協定是分家重要基礎〉,《聯合早報》,2002年11月01。
〈首相:即刻研究毀約效應 大馬或中止供水獅城〉,《星洲互動》,2002年11月02日。
〈水供問題帶上國際法庭耗時日 拉益士促獅城妥協〉,《星洲互動》,2002年11月02日。
〈等待大馬回應 水供談判須互相遷就〉,《星洲互動》,2002年11月03日。
〈馬首相署部長:馬國將循法律尋求解决方案〉,《聯合早報》,2002年11月03日。
〈新馬水供課題談判還有空間〉,《聯合早報》,2002年11月03。
〈馬哈迪:不同意調高價格 新無誠意解決水供問題〉,《星洲互動》,2002年11月23日。
〈副外長:堅持有權提出檢討 大馬談水價不退縮〉,《星洲互動》,2002年11月24日。
五、參考網站
(一)馬來西亞
星洲互動:http://www.sinchew-i.com/ (2002年11月)(中文)
馬來西亞外交部:http://www.kln.gov.my/ (2002年11月)(英文)
Berita Harian:http://www.bharian.com.my/ (2002年11月)(馬來文)
Utusan Malaysia Online:http://www.utusan.com.my/ (2002年11月)(馬來文)
(二)新加坡
聯合早報(新馬爭端專題):
http://www.zaobao.com/special/singapore/sg_my.html
(2002年11月)(中文)
新加坡海峽時報The Straits Times:http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/mnt/html/webspecial/bilateral/article0204.html (2002年11月) (英文)
新加坡外交部:http://www.mfa.gov.sg/ (2002年11月) (英文)
新加坡公共事務局:http://www.pub.gov.sg/ (2003年4月)(英文)
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