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研究生:曾馨誼
研究生(外文):Hsin-I Tseng
論文名稱:全球半導體產業之動態分析
論文名稱(外文):The Dynamic Evolution of Global Semiconductor Industry
指導教授:朱博湧朱博湧引用關係劉大年劉大年引用關係
指導教授(外文):Po-Young ChuDa-Nien Liu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:管理科學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2003
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:79
中文關鍵詞:半導體產業蛛網理論垂直準整合競合賽局理論
外文關鍵詞:semiconductor industrycobweb theoryvertical quasi-integrationcollaborationgame theory
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半導體產業結構歷經劇烈變化,自1950年代以來,全球半導體逐漸發展出上、中、下游完整的產業結構;1990年之後,半導體晶片的廣泛應用,造就資訊、通訊產業的興起,更使得全球經歷了前所未有的經濟成長,而產業內也由激烈的競爭演變為蓬勃的合作。本研究將半導體產業之發展歷程分成三階段:萌芽期、成長期、成熟期,從相關的經濟理論探討不同階段產業生態的現象與產業結構的變化。如下:
(1) 由Stigler之經濟理論解釋半導體產業結構為何由萌芽期的垂直整合逐漸發展為成長期的上、中、下游垂直分工。
(2) 以蛛網理論探討半導體產業形成垂直分工結構後,上、中、下游各個次產業內的動態循環及其對產業結構的影響。
(3) 分析半導體產業進入成熟期後,上、中、下游緊密的供需關係將如何影響其間的互動,以及產業如何發展為垂直準整合的結構。
最後則嘗試建構一經濟模型,並進行模擬分析,以討論當上、下游廠商處於何種產業結構下,所產生的利潤誘因可能使上、下游產業由垂直分工發展為垂直準整合的結構。根據建構之模型,結合半導體次產業於不同之結構下,推論半導體產業未來的競合行為與發展。本研究預期未來市場上將可見代工業者與設計業者進行蓬勃的策略合作,產業將呈現價值鏈對價值鏈的競爭,形成明顯的垂直準整合結構。
Over the course of past five decades, the semiconductor industry has been regarded as one of the most strategically important industries. From 1960s, it has developed into a comprehensive industrial system with vertically integrated as well as specialized. Firms cover the whole spectrum of semiconductor processes including design, mask, fabrication, packaging and testing. While many scholars have explored the phenomenon by investigating related technological development and operational performance, this study has worked from a slightly different perspective. A dynamic framework is developed to examine the context of semiconductor industry, based on the evolution of its market structure. This thesis consists of four sections. To begin with, the research explores the rationale why the semiconductor industrial structure has shifted from vertical integration to vertical disintegration. Next, the notion of cobweb cycle is utilized to further investigate the manufacture-related sub-industry. Furthermore, the collaborative events between upstream and downstream firms would be summarized. Finally, this study posits a two-stage game model characterizing the cooperation between two adjacent industries. The Nash equilibrium derived from computer simulation suggests the two adjacent industries would be vertically quasi-integrated as they evolved into comparatively similar market structure, either oligopolistic or competitive.
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 1
1.3研究對象及研究方法 2
1.4研究架構 3
第二章 半導體產業垂直分工歷程 5
2.1垂直整合與分工之文獻探討 5
2.1.1 垂直整合之定義與概念 5
2.1.2 垂直整合之誘因 5
2.1.3 垂直分工之定義與概念 11
2.1.4 分工之優缺點 14
2.1.5 產業垂直整合與分工之生命週期 14
2.2全球半導體產業分工演進 16
2.2.1 第一次產業分工:專業積體電路廠商產生 18
2.2.2 第二次產業分工:封裝、測試廠商產生 18
2.2.3 第三次產業分工:Fabless公司產生 19
2.2.4 第四次產業分工: 專業晶圓代工廠商的產生 19
2.2.5 第五次產業分工:IP廠商產生 20
第三章 半導體個體產業之蛛網循環 21
3.1蛛網理論文獻探討 21
3.1.1 蛛網理論 21
3.1.2 動態蛛網供需模型之探討 23
3.2 半導體產業之蛛網現象 24
3.2.1 半導體產業之供需景氣循環 27
3.2.2 半導體產業特性 28
3.2.3 半導體產業之供需循環 29
3.3 半導體市場結構之變化 31
3.4 本章小結 35
第四章 半導體產業之垂直準整合 36
4.1 垂直準整合之文獻探討 36
4.1.1垂直準整合之概念 36
4.1.2 產業組織之生命週期 38
4.2半導體產業之垂直準整合 39
4.2.1 策略聯盟(Strategy Alliance) 40
4.2.2 合資(Joint Venture) 41
4.2.3 合併(Merge) 42
4.3 本章小結 43
第五章 上、下游垂直關係之經濟分析模型 45
5.1 理論模型 45
5.2 模型假設 45
5.3 模型分析 48
5.4 利潤分析 53
5.5誘因分析 56
5.6 綜合討論 71
第六章 結論 73
6.1研究結論 73
6.2 研究限制 75
6.3 未來研究建議 75
參考文獻 76
中文部份:
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9.黃大銘,「台灣電腦工業垂直分工變化與產業規模經濟的形成」,國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文,民國85年。
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