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研究生:楊志文
研究生(外文):Chin-Wen Yang
論文名稱:全機率土壤液化評估法之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on Full Probabilistic Analysis of Evaluating Soil Liquefaction Potential
指導教授:黃俊鴻黃俊鴻引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jin-Hung Hwang
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:土木工程研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:土木工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2003
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:275
中文關鍵詞:土壤液化地震危害度機率風險分析
外文關鍵詞:soil liquefactionseismic hazard analysisprobabilityrisk analysis
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:11
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本研究將土壤液化潛能評估法分成兩個方向來加以探討研究,第一部分是驗証傳統的簡易土壤液化評估法,並發展新的簡易土壤液化評估法,第二部分是以機率與統計的方式發展一套完整的全機率土壤液化評估法,並應用於實際工程之液化潛能風險評估。
本研究蒐集共669組的SPT-N、388組的CPT-qc及250組的震測VS現地液化與非液化案例資料,以預判準確率與至少液化安全係數誤差指標,來驗証現有液化評估法之適用性,並利用這些資料建立一套物理意義較明確的TAI液化評估法。驗証結果顯示,SPT-N法以Seed法、NCEER法及TAI法為較佳之方法;CPT-qc法以NCEER法、Juang法與TAI法為較佳之方法;而震測VS法則以TAI法為較佳之方法。
傳統的液化評估法以安全係數的大小為液化潛能的評估標準,安全係數的要求則由工程師之經驗判斷。本研究利用所蒐集的現有液化案例資料庫,以Seed’85法及一次二階矩法為基礎,將影響土壤液化評估結果之主要參數的變異性量化,建立單一地震事件之土壤液化可靠度分析法。再進一步結合地震危害度與土壤液化可靠度分析法,建立完整考量地震發生與土壤液化強度變異性的全機率土壤液化評估法。最後以價值工程的觀念,建立一套土壤液化風險評估法,期望能為液化防治工程建立一套具有風險價值意義的決策分析方法。
This research examines the existing methods of evaluating soil liquefaction potential and seeks to develop new methods of evaluation. In the first part of the study, it verifies the traditional simplified methods for evaluating soil liquefaction and develops a new simplified method. In the second part of the study, a full probabilistic method of evaluating soil liquefaction is developed and applied to liquefaction risk analysis.
In total, there are 669 sets of SPT-N data, 388 sets of CPT-qc data, and 250 sets of shear wave velocity data on liquefaction and non- liquefaction case histories used in this research. Based on this data, a new simplified method for evaluating soil liquefaction called the “TAI method” is established that can use either SPT-N, CPT-qc or shear wave velocity data (Vs). Two indexes - the accuracy of prediction and the index of the at least error of safety factor - are used to verify the traditional simplified methods and compare them with the TAI method. The results show that the choice of the evaluation method used should be dependent on the type of data collected. The Seed method, NCEER method and TAI method work best for SPT data. The NCEER method, Juang method and TAI method are the best predictors for CPT data and the TAI method is the best choice for Vs data.
The traditional method for evaluating soil liquefaction assesses the liquefaction potential based on the safety factor it produces. However, criterion of safety factor adopted should depend on engineering’s experience. This study presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular Seed ’85 method and well known "first order, second moment" method. This method quantifies the variance of main factors affecting the result of soil liquefaction assessments from the liquefaction and non-liquefaction case histories. Next, a full probabilistic model of evaluating soil liquefaction is built by combining the reliability analysis of liquefaction method with earthquake hazard analysis. The model also takes into account the variance in the occurrences of earthquakes and the variance of soil resistance. Finally, monetary values are attached to the various outcomes of the model in order to establish a complete soil liquefaction risk analysis and decision making methodology.
全機率土壤液化評估法之研究
摘 要I
AbstractII
誌 謝IV
目 錄VI
表 目 錄X
圖 目 錄XII
符 號 說 明XVIII
第一章 緒 論1
1.1 研究背景1
1.2 研究目的與動機2
1.3 研究內容與流程3
第二章 土壤液化定值分析法之驗證5
2.1 各類液化評估方法6
2.2 各學者建議之簡易液化評估法7
2.1.1 SPT-N液化評估法7
2.1.2 CPT-qc液化評估法10
2.1.3 震測VS液化評估法17
2.3 本研究建議之簡易液化評估法21
2.3.1 本研究建議之SPT-N液化評估法21
2.3.2 本研究建議之CPT-qc液化評估法23
2.3.3 本研究建議之震測VS液化評估法25
2.4 現地案例資料庫28
2.4.1 SPT-N案例資料28
2.4.2 CPT-qc案例資料31
2.4.3 震測VS案例資料33
2.5 臨界液化強度曲線之比較35
2.5.1 SPT-N法土壤液化強度曲線之比較35
2.5.2 CPT-qc法土壤液化強度曲線之比較38
2.5.3 震測VS法土壤液化強度曲線之比較41
2.6 其它影響液化評估結果之因素43
2.6.1 細料對土壤抗液化強度之影響43
2.6.2 應力折減因子rd之比較46
2.6.3 規模修正因子MSF之比較47
2.6.4 小結49
2.7 評估指標與驗證結果50
2.7.1 評估指標50
2.7.2 案例驗證結果與建議52
2.8小結71
第三章 土壤液化可靠度分析101
3.1 前言101
3.2 土壤液化可靠度分析模式103
3.3 地震反覆剪應力比之機率密度函數108
3.4 土壤抗液化強度之機率密度函數110
3.4.1 邏輯式迴歸111
3.4.2 機率密度函數之推導112
3.4.3 平均值計算之簡化113
3.4.4 安全係數之機率密度分布函數115
3.5 抗液化安全係數與液化機率之關係116
3.6 新化斷層附近液化案例分析118
3.6.1 工址介紹118
3.6.2 單層土壤液化機率119
3.7 小結120
第四章 全機率土壤液化分析法129
4.1 全機率土壤液化分析法129
4.2 全機率液化分析法之架構131
4.2.1 全機率液化分析法的觀念131
4.2.2 土壤液化可靠度分析方法132
4.2.3 地震事件之模擬135
4.2.4 全機率土壤液化分析法138
4.3 多層土壤液化潛能評估法140
4.3.1 多層土壤液化機率140
4.3.2 多層土壤液化潛能指數PL之機率140
4.3.3 多層土壤液化後沉陷量S之機率143
4.4 多層土之案例分析146
4.5 小結148
第五章 液化風險分析165
5.1 前言165
5.2 液化風險分析模式165
5.3 現地案例計算167
5.3.1 霧峰太子城堡案例分析167
5.3.2 中二高名間收費站案例分析174
5.3.3 員林崙雅里案例分析176
5.4 小結179
第六章 結論與建議194
6.1 結論194
6.2 建議195
參 考 文 獻197
附 錄
參 考 文 獻
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106.黃俊鴻、林資凱、楊志文(2003)「現地水力回填煤灰之液化強度特性」,中國土木水利工程學刊,第15卷,第二期,第315-326頁。
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1. 110.葉文謙、吳建閩、鍾毓東、余明山(1998),「液化風險與土壤改良評估案例」,地工技術,第67期,第43-54頁。
2. 105.黃俊鴻、楊志文(2001),「以集集地震案例資料建立土壤臨界液化強度曲線」,中國土木水利工程學刊,第13卷,第二期,第339-352頁。
3. 108.黃富國、陳正興(2000),「土壤液化之機率分析法」,地工技術,第82期,第43-65頁。
4. 95.陳俶季,「土壤液化潛能之風險評估」,地工技術,第38期,第5-16頁。
5. 93.洪李陵、王德昕(1995),「地震危害度分析之參數推定及簡易公式」,中國土木水利工程學刊,第七卷,第四期,第421-429頁。
6. 92.周鴻昇、楊清源、謝百鍾、余明山、高耀宏(2000),「南投地區地工震災調查與分析」,地工技術,第八十一期,第69-84頁。
7. 73.丁迺忻(1998),「土壤液化潛能危害度分析簡介」,中華技術,第三十四期,第49-57頁。
8. 106.黃俊鴻、林資凱、楊志文(2003)「現地水力回填煤灰之液化強度特性」,中國土木水利工程學刊,第15卷,第二期,第315-326頁。
9. 104.黃俊鴻 (2000),「液化地盤中樁基礎之耐震設計」,地工技術,第82期,第65-78頁。
10. 103.黃俊鴻、楊志文、譚志豪、陳正興(2000),「集集地震土壤液化之調查與分析」,地工技術,第77期,第51-64頁。
11. 101.黃俊鴻、陳正興(1998),「土壤液化評估規範之回顧與前瞻」,地工技術,第70期,第23-44頁。
12. 117.賴聖耀、林炳森、李豐博、謝明志(1989),「荷式錐貫入試驗與液化可靠度之相關研究」,土木水利,第十六卷,第二期,第43-60頁。
13. 118.賴聖耀、李豐博、謝明志(1990),「利用荷式錐貫入試驗評估土壤液化機率之邏輯迴歸模式」,土木水利,第十六卷,第四期,第35-48頁。
14. 119.賴聖耀(1990),「以標準貫入試驗值建立土壤液化潛能判別模式」,中國土木水利工程學刊,第四期,第二卷,第301-311頁。
15. 120.賴聖耀(1991),「以最小錯誤分類法統計震災地區土壤抗液化強度與SPT調查結果之關係」,土木水利,第十八卷,第一期,第29-44頁。