臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

傳統專案管理之重要技術－CPM/PERT，對專案執行時因不確定因素導致之時程延宕，多僅能由各作業階層之時程調整來加以管控，本研究引用制約論（TOC），於專案階層設立緩衝區（buffer），探討不同之專案特性（專案網路複雜度及風險程度）下，於不同之資源供需情形時，若結合專案排程啟發式解（Heuristics），對專案緩衝區消耗情形之影響，以期了解關鍵鏈中所建議設置之專案緩衝區，其消耗程度將受何類因素之影響，並進一步探討其影響之趨勢如何，俾可提供作為實務上專案規劃、管理人員之參考依據。
本研究所運用工具包含PROJECT 2000、@RISK FOR PROJECT及VISUAL BASIC for EXCEL，以模擬不同之專案特性下，評估何類因素將影響專案緩衝區之消耗程度。
本論文獲致之結果如下：
一、於本文中納入考量之專案網路複雜度、風險高低、資源供需程度及排程法則（啟發式解）等四項因素中，風險及資源之供需程度顯然為設置專案緩衝區大小決策時之考量因子；而專案經理所選用不同之排程法則則對緩衝區大小之決策影響甚微；另就專案網路之複雜度而言，僅於資源充分供應時，複雜度始為緩衝區大小決策之影響因子。
二、專案風險之高低及資源供需之情形將直接影響專案緩衝區之消耗程度，風險愈高，消耗愈多；若資源之供應充足，依據高德拉特所提出關鍵鏈中之專案緩衝區將可完全滿足專案作業之需要；反之，若供應不足，不論專案之複雜度或風險高低，緩衝區大小將無法滿足作業需求，而造成專案時程之延宕。

The widely known traditional techniques of project management — CPM/PERT are mainly used for schedule management. They control the adjustment of schedule caused by delay for uncertainty in the level of activities. The study researches the consumption factors of project buffer in TOC (Theory of Constraints) built in the level of project. The author propose 4 factors, including the complexity of network, project risk, abundance of resources, and the heuristic rules of scheduling, and research further which factors mentioned will affect the outcome of consumption as well as the trend of affection.
Our computer tools are composed of PROJECT 2000, @RISK for PROJECT, and VISUAL BASIC for EXCEL. By simulation, we appraisal the influence of these factors to consumption of project buffer.
The conclusions of our study are as followed：
1.The conditions of project risk and abundance of resources are two essential factors necessary to consider when make use of project buffer.
2.In case the resources are fully abundant, the size of project buffer suggested by Critical Chain will be enough. On the other contrary, if the resources are much inadequate to meet the demand of coincident activities, the project will be postponed, though the project buffer is installed.
3.The consumption of buffer will enlarge as project risk increases.

第一章 緒論
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究範圍 4
1.4 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻回顧 8
2.1 專案之時間管理 8
2.2 傳統專案排程技術－要徑法 / 計劃評核術 10
2.3 資源限制下之啟發式專案排程 13
2.4 制約論下關鍵鍊之專案管理 16
2.5 專案之風險管理 20
第三章 研究方法 24
3.1 關鍵鏈下之專案管理情境 24
3.2 影響因子之定義 25
3.3 評估準則之設定 28
3.4 研究假設 29
第四章 模擬與結果分析 31
4.1 模擬步驟與工具之使用 31
4.2 模擬參數設定 34
4.3 模擬結果 40
4.4 模擬結果分析比較 53
第五章 結論與未來研究方向 61
5.1結論 61
5.2管理意涵 62
5.3研究限制 63
5.4未來研究方向 64
參考文獻 67
附錄 VISUAL BASIC 原始程式碼[重點摘要] 72

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