臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　本研究乃以Staw(1976)所提出的「承諾續擴行為」，有別於傳統經濟理性的決策模式，藉由心理認知上的角度來解釋決策者為何於制定具連續性的決策時，面臨先前決策已呈現負面訊息下，仍試圖投入更多資源與心力執著於原先決策上，致使最終陷入進退兩難的窘境中此一決策失當之行為探討。
　　本研究以沉入成本、增額投資與預期收益訊息型式三變項為焦點，探討此三者所組合而成不同決策嵌陷情境對承諾續諾之影響。本研究採受試者間與受試內並行之混合實驗設計進行假設驗證，並透過國內70位(共280筆觀測值)中高階經理人進行研究實證。研究結果顯示：
1.決策者在相對高增額投資情況下，機率性收益訊息的承諾續擴傾向高　於確定性收益訊息。
2.決策者無論在何種收益訊息型式下，低增額投資的承諾續擴傾向均高　於高增額投資。
3.決策者在相對低沉入成本情況下，機率性收益訊息的承諾續擴傾向高　於確定性收益訊息。

This study, with a focus on sink cost, additional invest and the framing choice of Revenue, explores those variable that how varied cause entrapment on decision making and result in the escalation of commitment in different way. Seventy manager in Taiwan were sampled as empirical subjects. The author conducted a test in a three factors that mixed within-group and with between-group experiment. The results show:
1.When the additional invest is relatively greater, the 　　 escalation of commitment for probable revenue message is more than the certainty revenue message.
2.Regardless of Revenue messages, the escalation of commitment for the low additional investments more than the high additional investment.
3.When the sink cost is relatively low, the escalation of commitment for probable revenue message is more than the certainty revenue message.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節　問題背景 1
第二節　研究動機與目的 5
第二章 文獻探討與假說推論 7
第一節　承諾續擴的釋義及特性 7
第二節　承諾續擴上的爭議 9
第三節　導致承諾續擴之因素 13
第四節　承諾續擴動態決策模式 23
第五節　研究問題 26
第六節　假說推論 27
第三章 研究設計 30
第一節　實驗操弄與變項衡量 30
第二節　實驗流程 33
第三節　研究對象 34
第四節　資料分析 37
第四章 實證分析 39
第一節　三因子變異析分析 39
第二節　研究結果彙總 49
第五章 結論與管理意涵 49
第一節　研究結論 50
第二節　管理意涵 54
第三節　研究限制 55
第四節　未來研究發展與建議 56
參考文獻 57

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