臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

國際市場進入模式選擇是企業國際化策略中重要的問題，因為其與企業之經營績效與成敗有著密不可分的關係。因此企業如何選擇適合的進入模式成為一重要課題。過去對國際市場進入模式的評選上有以下幾個問題：（一）缺乏完整評估因素；（二）未探討如何決定評估準則權重；（三）未具體說明如何整合決策者意見。使評選結果的客觀性與有效性令人質疑。
由於國際市場進入模式評選具有：（一）多準則評估之特性；（二）群體決策方式評選；（三）評選過程因準則績效值的評價上有模糊衡量之問題。故本研究試圖發展一套國際市場進入模式評估程序，將模糊決策理論之模糊德菲法、層級分析法與綜合評判應用至國際市場進入模式評選；並藉由對未來景象之模擬，給予廠商在數種特定未來景象（最樂觀景象、最可能發生景象、最悲觀景象）中，適當的進入模式選擇建議，符合Porter「景象分析必須協助企業形成競爭策略，才能發揮其真正價值」之觀點。針對所欲探討之特定景象，來評選合適之進入模式。故本研究結合多準則決策理論與產業景象分析法，發展出一套完整進入模式評估程序，提供企業在檢討現行進入模式與評估未來最適進入模式之參考。
研究結果發現：（一）企業在選擇國際市場進入模式時，除了地主國因素層面外，並會綜合考量其他因素如廠商因素、產業因素與母國因素等層面，來進行最適方案的遴選；（二）相較於傳統評估方法只有一個結果，本評估程序提供不同景象下之方案，給予決策者較多建議與資訊，較符合現實決策環境；（三）藉由敏感度分析來模擬評估準則權重變化，是否會產生方案逆轉的情況，影響最適進入模式的選擇。可使決策者面對未來經營環境改變時，作為判斷是否調整經營型態之參考。
本評估程序能有效整合決策者的意見、客觀地獲得評估準則的權重值與方案之評價值，提高最終評選結果的合理性。可解決傳統評估方式所產生之缺失。

The foreign entry-mode choice is an important decision in international strategy because of its relationships to the performance and survival of a firm. How to choose appropriate foreign market entry-mode is the first problem of entrepreneurs which enter an international market. In the past, several problems of the choice of evaluating foreign entry-mode are as follows: (1) Lack of entire evaluated factors. (2) Lack of discussing how to determine weights of criteria. (3) Lack of explaining how to solve the consensus problem of the group decision. So the outcomes are in doubt.
Entry-mode selection problem has inherently contained the characteristics of multi-criteria decision-making problem. The problem of the process of evaluation is group decision-making problem. During the process of entry-mode selecting, the decision makers have to evaluate all kinds of criteria evaluated values under a fuzzy circumstance where the whole environment is uncertain and the future is unknown. For these reasons, we try to apply Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) method to the evaluating process of foreign entry-mode choice. Furthermore, we apply Scenario Analysis to provide decision makers suggestions under several special scenarios. Like what Porter said“Scenarios are the best used to guide the choice of a strategy, rather than as a means of confirming one”. To special scenarios, entrepreneurs can choice appropriate entry-mode for each other. We combine MCDM method with Industry Scenario Analysis to develop a new set of evaluating processes, which can provide information for entrepreneurs.
The results are as follows: (1) Besides the factor of host country level, managers also consider other levels to choose alternatives, like factory, Industry strategy and home country levels, and so on. (2) To compare with evaluating method before, this new evaluating process provides alternatives in different scenarios and more information to decision makers. (3) Simulating criteria weights by Sensitivity Analysis, we can rank all of alternatives for each scenario to find out if“alternatives adverse”has happened. Sensitivity Analysis can let decision makers to determine change entry-mode choice when circumstances will be changed in the future.
This evaluating process can integrate decision makers’ opinions effectively, and make weight of each criteria and evaluated values of alternatives objectively. By considering these factors, we can get appropriate method to explain each scenario reasonably.

第一章 緒論
第一節研究背景……………………………………………………………1
第二節研究動機與目的……………………………………………………3
第三節研究內容與流程……………………………………………………4
第二章 文獻探討
第一節國際市場進入模式評選問題之探討………………………………7
第二節影響進入模式選擇之考量因素與進入模式型態………………..11
第三節景象分析…………………………………………………………..21
第四節模糊決策理論……………………………………………………..28
第五節小結………………………………………………………………..35
第三章 建立評估程序
第一節評估程序發展概念………………………………………………..36
第二節評估程序發展……………………………………………………..37
第四章 實證分析
第一節我國機車產業國際市場發展現況………………………………..49
第二節廠商與專家選取…………………………………………………..52
第三節歐洲機車產業未來景象分析……………………………………..55
第四節建立決策分析架構………………………………………………..66
第五節進入模式評估準則選取…………………………………………..69
第六節最適進入模式評估準則權重之建立……………………………..80
第七節最適進入模式評選………………………………………………..85
第八節敏感度分析………………………………………………………..93
第九節結果討論…………………………………………………………..98
第五章 結論與建議
第一節研究結論…………………………………………………………100
第二節管理意涵…………………………………………………………102
第三節研究貢獻…………………………………………………………103
第四節研究限制…………………………………………………………104
第五節後續研究建議……………………………………………………105
參考文獻
中文參考文獻…………………………………………………………………106
英文參考文獻…………………………………………………………………108
附錄
一、景象分析深度訪談問卷…………………………………………………116
二、模糊德菲法問卷…………………………………………………………117
三、模糊德菲層級分析法問卷………………………………………………121
四、進入模式評價問卷………………………………………………………129

一、中文部分
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15. 袁建中、張建清、王建彬、許毅芝，「台灣生物資訊產業未來五年發展之情境分析」，2002中華民國科技管理研討會論文集，民國91年，頁140-149。
16. 吳萬益、程永明，「台資企業投資中國大陸市場所有權進入模式之研究」，交大管理學報，第二十卷，第二期，民國89年，頁47-77。
17. 林志宏，「台灣資訊業國際市場進入策略之研究」，政治大學國際貿易研究所未出版碩士論文，民國79年。
18. 簡吉龍，「企業生命週期與進入模式關連性之研究」，政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文，民國87年。
19. 翁景民、曾義明，「國際進入模式決策之折衷理論暨國際進入模式組合之研究」，台大管理論叢，第六卷，第二期，民國84年，頁25-60。
20. 張朝龍，「生物技術專利權保護程度於進入模式的影響性探討」，東華大學國際企業研究所碩士論文，民國89年。
21. 賴奎魁、鄭伶如、陳柏宇，「技術情境之研究─以接觸式影像感測器業為例」，管理與系統，第八卷，第四期，民國90年，頁421-438。
22. 藍忠孚、宋文娟、陳琇玲、詹錕鋙，「台灣地區醫師人力供需預測之情境分析」，中華衛誌，Vol.19，No.2，民國89年，頁86-95。
23. 陳昭宏，「創業投資公司投資高科技產業模糊多準則評估之研究─以生物科技產業為例」，輔仁管理評論，第九卷，第二期，民國91年，頁87-110。
24. 余正宗，「我國有線電視系統經營者產業結構分析與預測─產業前景分析法之應用」，國立中山大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，民國85年。
25. 台灣區車輛工業同業公會； http：//www.ttvma.org.tw/，民國92年。
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