現今以精密設備為主的生產線需要依賴高可靠度與高穩定性的設備，以避免突發故障所造成的損失。為維持設備在良好的運作狀態，則必須透過設備自動化與預防維護措施來達成。因此如何利用感應器來即時偵測設備運作狀態、並利用電腦中心根據即時資訊來制定有效的動態預防維護策略，為當今最重要的研究主題之一。
本研究即針對具有老化及衰退特性之設備，利用設備健康指標（Health Index）將設備多元的偵測參數整合，判斷出設備即時運作狀態。此運作狀態轉換以一離散時間馬可夫衰退模式來描述。本研究以（1）上三角轉換矩陣描述設備衰退；（2）更以老化因子（aging factor）描述此轉換矩陣因設備老化現象而衰退（加速）的現象；（3）並依據設備的運轉資料估計模式相關參數（老化因子及設備初始轉換矩陣）；（4）假設設備在各狀態有多種不完全維護動作可選擇，且維護動作具有風險性。
本研究提供此模式相關參數的估計方法。且為了使模式更符合實際狀況之應用，加入了維護動作時間的考量，在有限的預防維護策略期數範圍內，以每個循環的期望單位時間總維護成本最低之原則，制訂設備各狀態的最佳維護策略。

The advanced technology industries require high precision and highly stable equipment to avoid the cost caused by failure occurrence. Equipment automation and preventive maintenance must be executed to keep equipment within proper operating states. It has always been an important topic for study in inspecting the operating states of equipment by sensors and determing the dynamic preventive maintenance policies according to the real-time condition by computer analyzing centers.
This research is focused on the deteriorating system. The real-time equipment operating state can be generated by using health index integrating the parameters inspected by sensors. In this research, a discrete time Markovian multi-state deteriorating model is adopted to describe the state transition of equipment. The model also includes (1) the deteriorating of operating states ( via upper triangular probability transition matrices) and (2) the aging of transition probabilities ( via aging factor )；(3) Base on historical data, we can estimate the model parameters （aging factor and initial transition matrix） and (4) assume that multiple imperfect actions with risk are available.
The estimation methodologies of the model parameters are also provided in this research. For the practical application of the model, the maintenance time is also taken into consideration. According to the real-time equipment status, the optimal maintenance policy of each operating state can be generated by the rule of the minimum expected total cost per unit time for each cycle during finite time interval in the near future.

摘 要 I
Abstract II
致 謝 辭 III
目 錄 IV
圖 目 錄 V
表 目 錄 VI
第一章 緒 論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 論文架構 2
第二章 文獻探討 3
2.1 維護的定義 3
2.2 無偵測設備環境下預防保養策略文獻探討 4
2.3 具偵測設備環境下非動態預防保養策略文獻探討 7
2.4 具即時偵測設備下動態預防保養策略文獻探討 7
第三章 保養模式 10
3.1 模式假設 10
3.2 模式構建 11
3.2.1 基本設備隨機模型 11
3.2.2 設備自然衰退(未採任何維護動作下)的隨機模型 12
3.2.3 建構老化因子[27]以描述設備自然衰退的隨機模型 13
3.2.4 參數■及■的估計[27] 14
3.3 最小化單位時間總保養成本決策模型 16
第四章 結論與未來研究方向 30
4.1 結論 30
4.2 未來研究方向 30
附錄一 郭瑞祥所提出之Health Index 建立方法 31
附錄二 估計老化因子範例運算 33
附錄三 數值範例之程式碼 37
參考文獻： 45

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