臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

高科技產業進行產能擴增時，由於資金需求龐大，由：一、財務風險的觀點；二、資金需求的觀點；三、競爭力的觀點等三方面考量，除自行擴增產能外，亦可透過合資的方式，以持股的方式掌握產能使用權，如此既可降低投資風險，也可降低短期現金的支出，又可適時適量的增加產能規模以增加競爭力。
本文分析高科技產業進行產能擴增的投資決策流程，並考量資金成本、生產成本、擴增產能成本，以企業評價的觀點，運用現金流量折現法，考量資金的時間價值，建立起在投資流程中各階段相對應的評估模型，包括：一、評估產能規模之模型；二、評估資金結構之模型；三、評估持股比例之模型；而後應用模擬方法進行求解，並運用敏感度分析，可以瞭解不同參數下，對淨現值的影響，此結果將有助於評估者瞭解不同情境下對投資結果的衝擊。
本文旨在提供企業於投資的流程中各決策點建立一相對的定量評估模型與解決方法，而企業合資時同時需考量其他的定性因素，則可在有適當的量化機制後將其納入模型中。

When the high-tech enterprise expands its capacity due to the enormous financing demand, it can expand with joint venture besides with its own investment. By joint venture manufacturing, the enterprise can reduce the risks of investment and short-term capital expense. It also can expand capacity to increase its competitive ability. This thesis is going to analyze the capacity expansion investment decision processes of high-tech enterprises with the constraints of cost of capital, cost of production and cost of capacity acquisition. From the perspective of valuation, by using discounted cash flow method, we develop three different models of relative process including: 1.Evaluative model of capacity expansion. 2. Evaluative model of capital structure. 3. Evaluative model of share holding. Simulation method is using in this article to solve the relative models, and evaluate the impact of net present values under different situations by using sensitivity analysis.
We hope the evaluative models developed in this thesis can provide quantitative models to assist the enterprise increase its values when making the decision of capacity expansion.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
致謝辭 iii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究動機 1
1.2研究目的 1
1.3研究進行架構與大綱 2
第二章 高科技產業特性探討與投資理論回顧 4
2.1高科技產業的觀念 4
2.2高科技產業的特色與技術指標 6
2.2.1 高科技產業的特色 6
2.2.2高科技公司技術量化的指標 7
2.3高科技產業投資決策的考量要素 7
2.3.1從財務風險觀點 8
2.3.2 從資金需求的觀點 9
2.3.3 從競爭力的觀點 9
2.4企業評價流程與投資評估之決策流程與決策方法分類 11
2.4.1企業評價流程與投資決策流程 11
2.4.2 投資決策模型的分類 12
2.5投資專案傳統評估方法 14
2.5.1 投資決策方法 14
2.5.2 傳統折現率估計方法 15
2.6模擬方法特性 16
2.7敏感度分析 18
第三章 投資評估流程分析與模式建立 19
3.1問題描述 19
3.1.1評估流程的步驟 20
3.1.2整理問題結構 22
3.1.3合資模式的建立與假設條件 23
3.2評估生產基地C不同產能規模對二公司的經濟效益 25
3.3評估生產基地C資金結構之模式 26
3.4公司A於共同出資資金中所佔的比例（即 與 ）之評估模式 29
第四章 範例計算與敏感度分析 33
4.1範例一 33
4.2範例二 42
4.3敏感度分析 43
第五章 結論與未來研究的建議 46
5.1結論 46
5.2未來研究的建議 46
參考文獻 47
附錄A-產能評估程式之程式碼 50
附錄B-資金結構評估程式之程式碼 55
附錄C-出資資金比例評估程式之程式碼 60

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